EasternLI

Yeah, that's fascinating. Really interesting stuff.

I'm enjoying following the sst evolution related to those wind anomalies currently. It's nice to see the Indonesian waters cooling off for a change. The persistent convection in that area probably played a roll in that as well.

As it stands currently as of this morning.

That's the wave spacing I'm talking about. This system today is getting out of the way a little quicker. Which helps tomorrow's system. Need that to continue. That allows the heights to rise a bit more between them. Instead of squashing it.

Be interesting to see if trends continue. The better wave spacing and even slightly better adjustments to the height field recently have been helping. I'm watching the trends with that throughout the day. Nice to see the gfs do well with the idea of a system for a change. Not perfect by any means, but it had the better idea it would seem.

Not sure if I'd call it that. I'd say 95-96 was the one closest to wall to wall. Like bluewave posted. 02-03 was a good one though.

00z EPS mid month

It's come NW for the past 4 runs. Including this one. Which started basically as nothing 4 runs ago. So that's interesting alone. Better wave spacing each time.

Blend that gfs with today's European for the 7th, that wouldn't be half bad for most.

Yeah, what was that lol. GFS Being stubborn with this thing. Might have to check out the 18z euro

Yeah, I was just about to post that lol. MJO looks good too on this run. Approved.

Here's where we leave off at the end of today's EPS

Yeah, it looks like that one is going to set up the baroclinic zone for this one. So what happens with that one is going to be important for storm track. A bit more blocking would be nice as you mention. Kind of surprised to see that solution today TBH.

At this range, the mean is in a good spot. That's more important for now.

12z euro ensemble on board

12z euro for Friday

Happy new year fellow weather enthusiasts. The 00z EPS agrees with bluewave's assessment.

Yes. One way or another. We need to see some sst gradients otherwise it's useless. I imagine other factors would just take over. Like a enso neutral. Not really much of a gradient in 18-19, just warm all over. Hopefully it's not a totally permanent feature yet, but the outlook isn't great. I'd like to give a moderate one a shot. We haven't done that in a while. But I think a strong one is coming sooner rather than later. This mjo has been downwelling that record warm water during this time. I'm curious to see what happens with that.

Yeah, there was a +PDO too which I believe gave a big assist. But that's uncommon for a La Niña.

Scandinavian/NAO blocking seems to have dominated. Some similarities with a standard la Niña pattern in the Pacific. Strange year really. Basically a -NAO la Niña.

Dateline forcing in 02-03. Hence the love affair with Modoki El Niño’s. Fortuitous little warm pool sitting right there that year. +PDO too.

Yeah, exactly. I suspected it would be better after that 500mb look. Nice to see it move along finally. It gets pretty convoluted later in the run. I'd imagine we get back to the warm pool sometime in the 2nd half of the month. But we'll follow it and see how it goes. It's been fascinating following this one and I'm sure it will continue to be. I'm pretty happy with this development for now.

Yeah, that was a nice run this time. Verbatim has a low pressure off the coast on the 15th too. Can't ask for much more at this range.

We take this look. Now we're getting somewhere for day 5-10 mean. Finally looking much better this run.