EasternLI

@Allsnow

Some of the key points made in the NOAA MJO update today. Numbers 4 and 5 are related to the discussions we've been having here, so not surprising. They did note some signs of renewed eastward propagation which I think most would like to hear. -Both velocity potential based MJO and RMM indices indicate an active West Pacific MJO event with little continued eastward propagation in recent weeks. -There is disagreement among the dynamical models regarding the predicted evolution of the MJO, leading to continued uncertainty in the outlook. -Tropical cyclone formation is favored over the southern Pacific where any coherence of the MJO is more likely to manifest itself during the next two weeks. -While West Pacific MJO events typically favor colder than normal conditions across the CONUS, extended range model guidance continues to mimic more of an amplified negative Pacific North American pattern, suggestive of La Niña dominating the extratropical response over North America. -An incoherent spatial pattern remains evident in the upper-level velocity potential field, likely due to ongoing competing interference with other modes of tropical variability. -Suppressed conditions have strengthened throughout much of the Indian Ocean. -The RMM based MJO index continues to exhibit a fairly stagnant west Pacific event during the past few weeks. -However, the intraseasonal signal has shown signs of renewed eastward propagation in recent days.

Damnit!! There goes my jan 8-10 period

Yeah, could be related. Looks like it's still trying to make a move east with it on this run. But it's holding firm on the date for now. Which was/is the 8th.

PNA looks positive at the end of the EPS lol

He's an expert on the subject. But I was not a fan of his previous tweet at all either. Where he said that 50mb was heading straight to the pole to strengthen. That has not been the case since he said that.

I agree. Even 2 weeks is tentative. So much depends on the total hemispheric pattern. Which we're struggling with on guidance right now. Are we confident how that's going to look? I'm not. I do see the shots it's taking currently too. It's not like it's sitting at the pole all cozy like we've seen in the past. The continued disconnect is interesting. I feel like we don't see that very often.

Thank you for posting your thoughts on this. I'm pleased to see the first part lining up with what I was thinking on the same matter.

Thank you for this! I had only quickly scanned the winter months and was curious myself.

Yeah, I mean here's today's satellite example. Just acting like the anchor that it has been all along. To me, this is the main driving force for the Pacific Ridge and resulting -PNA thus far. This is a known area for doing exactly that. We could use some subsidence to to try and knock this down somewhat. Especially on the western flank. But even the last attempt at that wasn't very effective. Models have been continually weakening this late in their runs, but its been an erroneous endeavor to date.

Until I see some changes near Indonesia at this point, I'm extremely skeptical. Models have been underestimating that area the whole time. I'm interested to see NOAA's update.

Oh yeah, it could absolutely be worse. All of the cold could be on the other side of the globe. Just would be nice to have some better agreement between those. One way or another.

That's some pretty good disagreement. Uncertainty seems to be on tap for now.

I'd be cautious of those RMM charts if I were you...

Gefs being more stubborn than eps with the western trough. But also more stubborn with higher heights in the arctic. This is 06z Gefs vs 00z eps for the same timeframe, which is the end of the eps run. So some differences noted here.

Would like to have @bluewave thoughts on this?

I think we're looking at it right now TBH, at least back to 1975 during winter months.

The greater concern, to me, in light of this potential. Is that a global temperature spike is known to be associated with such events. Something the planet could really do without IMO.

Gefs and eps are doing different things with that ridge after it gets cut off. Eps retrograding it. Gefs it's still meandering around just north. Found that difference interesting.

I look at that map and see a recipe for an ugly severe event.

Yeah, it's almost like it's trapped between that and La Niña. Some of it moves on at times, but that base area just stays put. I think it's a testament to the amplitude of the MJO this year. The QBO argued for that. Because of cooling in the very upper troposphere. It's impressive.

Wanted to post this here. I found 2 other years that did anything remotely similar to the current MJO. This year is higher amplitude than both. From the BOM website back to 1975. Super El Niño followed both of these 2 years later.

Super duper could be this next one if this phase 7 business keeps going thats for sure. That's what's building up all of the subsurface heat right now. At high amplitude too.

Yeah, that very warm water over there just keeps feeding the convection. So it's like it's holding it back almost. Pretty crazy actually. That's what it looks like keeps happening.

Also kind of interesting that those years were enso neutral.