EasternLI

I don't see the 00z eps getting to phase 8. Looking like phase 7 still to me throughout that run. What I think we’re seeing is a wave break or two that grabs a piece of that ridge and pushes it poleward. A lot of guidance is showing something like that. So maybe that pushes some of that cold east somewhat for a time. It seems to me as though the same overall pattern is still in place for the most part. At least on that run.

Just noticed this thread. 0.5" in Riverhead Measured 5 locations, all the same.

Wishing them, and everyone else dealing with it, a speedy recovery. That's good that they are only dealing with mild symptoms.

Was able to get a test the other day only since my mom works at a hospital. So they are testing family members as well. Came back negative this morning. So this is just a standard cold. Relieved.

0.5" of snow fell last night over here. First measurable. A nice Christmas eve surprise.

I think the scenario was laid out perfectly. And when circumstances arise they are noted and discussed. All of that discussion must have been overlooked. Or misunderstood.

Testing is booked solid here. Disaster

You guys think this is bad. The UK was expecting a cold shot for Christmas and maybe even some snow. And then had the rug pulled out.

I thought everything was pretty well explained in here.

Yeah, I'm not sure what actually does break this loop or even when that occurs. But I do find myself absolutely fascinated to see what ultimately does it. As boring as the weather is locally, there's really some interesting things going on to watch.

Just wanted to do a little illustration on why I didn't like the 11-12 analog specifically and still don't. If we take a peek at what was going on that year. You can see how the forcing was extending back into the IO. Very near the phase 3 location. That is shown in research to drive a +AO and that's exactly what happened. Game over. This bears some similarity to what happened in winter 19-20 with the extreme +IOD event. In hindsight, that was a major problem. This year, we have strong subsidence in the IO. So that's not allowing the same thing to happen this time. Some guidance is even strengthening this further. So with the forcing now further into the western Pacific instead, that leaves the door open for some better possibilities. Potentially. This is why I'm a bit more optimistic about this year than most. But we'll see, at least this keeps it interesting. For now.

Another thing about this upcoming pattern. Sure seems like another high end severe event(s) would be very possible, if not likely, somewhere in the Midwest at some point.

Yup, that's a product of the situation we're facing. It's going to be interesting to see what actually breaks this down. I suspect it will somehow, but not sure how yet or when.

I would have no issues at all with 08-09 here either. SSW event that winter too. Hopefully we can step up to the ssw roulette wheel and give it a spin.

Yeah, I'm struggling to see another way out. Although, if there was a recurving tropical system or something that could be another plausible way I suppose. Some kind of powerful force. That's probably not what we would prefer. As it would alleviate pressure on the PV though. Need phase 7 to do some work.

Well, there it is. 2008-09 shows up in an unpopular way.

Yeah, this should be quite interesting. Especially with this feedback loop happening. I'm curious what ultimately breaks this down.

That's exactly why I think we'll know more by mid January. If we haven't seen at least signs of anything by then, with the pattern locked in like this. It's probably not going to work out. I have 2 scenarios in my mind. Either we get the ssw and associated -AO. Or we don't. In which case we'd probably come around to the +AO in short order and that's not going to do anything for us.

Those Pacific warm pool waters we talked about in here really are the driving force of all of this. Be interesting to see what does actually break this loop. Phase 7 until further notice until some event shows up to disrupt this. But phase 7 is very capable of strat disruption as per the literature. La Niña plus EQBO is also favorable for doing that. The -PNA is a complimentary component to this. So do we break the loop before enough damage is done? Or does the strat eventually break the loop? I'd be a little surprised honestly if the MJO were to make a push east with this going on. Thinking it needs an intervening force. Just not sure what ultimately happens with this or what that force will be.

That's definitely a possibility. Not sold on that just yet though. Going to need to see how this pattern actually shakes out. The MJO being stuck in phase 7 like it is argues for a different outcome. And it seems we could be stuck for a couple weeks with that feedback loop. Just need to keep tabs on it for a while.

08-09 was actually not a terrible analog in the fall. Without this record -PNA I wonder if we could have seen that coast to coast trough with the -NAO. They are rare.

This particular stagnant pattern we're seeing does have the actual capability to turn the PV into a punching bag.

I was just having a little fun. Can't be serious all the time. The world could use a little more levity.

14-15 was a furnace December. Not calling for that, but that winter turned out fine. I've seen some fat squirrels this year too. Let me get the farmers almanac. Nope, we're porked, we had a full moon in August.