EasternLI

Don't know if many are familiar with the ecmwf cluster analysis. It's UK centric, so not much use with the Pacific. However, you can still see what's happening locally. So there was one cluster on the 00z eps. Granted, a minority of the members, but nevertheless there was something mixed in there. Is it a longshot, absolutely, but it's not totally 0% yet.

Keeping one eye on this.

I'd be shocked if this year is even remotely close to something like 11-12. Tropical convection is night and day different from that year. It was stuck the Indian Ocean to Maritime Continent in 11-12. Which is god awful for winter prospects. Remember 19-20 winter? Turns out the ++IOD was a huge problem, in hindsight.

Couldn't hurt to keep one eye on this 21st timeframe. Trends have been to take what looked like a huge western trough at long range and cut it off offshore instead more recently. That would allow some room for a transient height rise out west if that were to continue trending.

Happy hour gfs is always entertaining. Sure, let's have the PV set up at 50/50

Thanks for the kind words. Nobody I know cares about this stuff. So I figured I'd post some thoughts

I enjoy looking for colder outcomes. To me, warm is far and away the favorite as we move forward through the years. I enjoy cheering for underdogs. I do wish we would do something about it. However, it seems to me there's just too much money to be made not doing anything.

Totally fair thoughts. I'm just posting my own thoughts based on the reading that I've done. I'm more curious about how these thoughts work out more than anything else. It's just a fascinating case this year, and I'm already enjoying watching the progress. Always more to learn.

Also WQBO that year. Another strike against mjo modulation of the pattern. Propagation too, for that matter. In light of recent research, enso along with QBO are very important factors to consider. I've taken up the hobby of reading research papers over the summer the last few years. I've been able to gain some good insight into certain areas from this exercise. The QBO has been a focal point recently. Apparently, it's quite important as a modulator. 2018 -1.39 -1.50 -1.59 -1.75 -1.84 -1.95 -1.82 -1.12 -0.36 0.15 0.59 0.90 2019 0.89 0.84 0.98 1.09 1.32 1.54 1.44 1.36 1.12 0.97 0.73 0.38 2020 -0.05 -0.18 -0.33 -0.41 -0.27 0.14 0.58 0.94 1.10 1.26 1.22 1.09 2021 0.99 0.81 0.82 0.43 0.16 -0.20 -0.52 -0.58 -0.90 -1.18 -1.30-

That year though was warm enso. Which is a more unfavorable state than la nina for effective modulation as per research. Apples and oranges IMO. I have no expectations. I'm merely trying to take science and apply it to the current situation. If someone else has expectations, that's on them. Not long ago we were reading in here that this wave couldn't propagate, that was incorrect.

I have some questions about those +AAM composites. Is la Niña factored in? Or is that just all years? Is qbo factored? These are important factors to consider. Different combinations of those are very capable of much different results.

I've read some discussion on this mjo wave being the catalyst for that. I'm not very well versed in AMM. Would be interesting to look into more at some point in the future. I've also read some discussion that this AAM coupled with a mjo phase 6/7 passage has potential to land heavy blows to the SPV. This particular year is really interesting to me. I'm fascinated by how this could play out moreso than actually getting anything out of it. Looking forward to seeing what happens. I'm still feeling good about it though at this time.

It's a valid concern. History with such events tells us that. However, I feel pretty good about this one. The slow moving nature and background state argue in favor of effective modulation. Time will tell. I suspect we'll continue seeing improving looks on ensembles as we monitor the inferno of this week.

Yeah, exactly. We're still in phase 7 at the end of the eps from the looks of vp 200. I do believe we're seeing a trend more towards that phase 7 look. Gefs is still rushing things a little IMO.

Phase 8 wouldn't be happening until after the end of the ensembles. I think some people hear that we're heading in that direction and expect faster changes. Patience is suggested. Reminder, it's a slow moving wave. Which is a good thing.

Yeah. What a nightmare.

What a disaster in Kentucky. Wow.

I don't have any thoughts yet about that far out. Any modeling beyond ensembles range I put very little faith in.

There's been somewhat of a low frequency signal in the SA atlantic Africa sector. It's been there for some time now. It's identified on the VP 200 charts. That area reflects on the phase 7/8 RMM charts. As the MJO makes It's way towards that area, its constructively interfering with that signal. Amplifying. This has been shown on ensembles for a while now. Also important, the subsidence amplifying and pushing towards the MC. I feel like this adds a bit of confidence that we actually can turn this pattern around. It'll be fascinating to see what transpires with this.

I think ensembles are slowly coming around to the phase 7 la Niña look. I suspect the NAO look on ensembles right now is actually an atlantic ridge, similar to that composite, but spread is smearing that into the NAO domain. Any real -NAO wouldn't be until after the ball drops IMO. It's a slow moving mjo wave. I feel like any sooner progression would be too fast. Gefs is a little faster than eps. I'm thinking the eps has the better idea with the timing here. It's the very end of the 12z eps where the changes are just beginning. That makes some sense to me.

Yeah, always a concern. I've definitely had that in mind. HM actually touched on this with an interesting post yesterday.

Great post. An interesting thing about the background state this year. Its actually really favorable for mjo wave propagation, it would seem. Solar correlation is suggested in research to have a lag ~3 years. East QBO. La Niña. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/1/jcli-d-18-0811.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display Specifically, under cool ENSO, easterly QBO, and SMIN conditions, evidence favors a strengthened wave train that propagates farther eastward and more strongly modulates SLP and SAT anomalies. The modulation is increased further when two or more of these conditions are simultaneously in effect. While internal intraseasonal variability is large and these influences may not be apparent during a given MJO cycle in a given winter, the length of currently available reanalysis datasets allows them to be detected via averaging and construction of mean MJO phase composites.

Some interesting factors on the field for the mjo this season, it would seem. From a recent paper on the MJO. I'm really interested in how things work out this season. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/1/jcli-d-18-0811.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display Specifically, under cool ENSO, easterly QBO, and SMIN conditions, evidence favors a strengthened wave train that propagates farther eastward and more strongly modulates SLP and SAT anomalies. The modulation is increased further when two or more of these conditions are simultaneously in effect. While internal intraseasonal variability is large and these influences may not be apparent during a given MJO cycle in a given winter, the length of currently available reanalysis datasets allows them to be detected via averaging and construction of mean MJO phase composites.