EasternLI

Well, I put very little faith in extended modeling these days. Just in general, regardless of what is shown. What is nice to see is someone like Paul Roundy saying something like that. He is an expert on tropical convection/MJO.

That ~22nd thing gaining support from the EPS. Gotta watch the trends with this. This is what the top two EPS clusters are looking like from today's 00Z. Eyes open today. Hr 192

This is a bit.... different. Buried under the 12z EPS mean, HR's 192(bottom)- 240(top). Half of all the members did this.

Given the la nina went east based, coupled with a -PDO, favors -NAO. I posted the paper earlier in the thread about this. Not sure why people should have a problem with a weak or moderate Niña to begin with. Only weak Niño would be more preferred.

Yeah, recent research has really shown its a very important piece of the puzzle. Plus, this particular year, there's even more to that. La nina plus EQBO plus low solar (which lags ~3 years) cumulatively increases the North Atlantic response to said mjo. So the base state is primed to be very receptive. It's all a big part of the reason I got interested at the possible progression earlier this month. Now it's all about to get underway and I'm fascinated to see how this all goes. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/1/jcli-d-18-0811.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display As shown by the spatial correlation resultsofFig. 10and the SLP/SAT diagnostic results ofFig. 11,composites for combined SMIN/cool ENSO, SMIN/QBOE, and SMIN/QBOE/cool ENSO conditions produce progressively stronger MJO modulations of meanSLP and SAT anomalies in the North Atlantic/Eurasiansector. These results are consistent with previous workshowing that the QBO interacts with other low-frequency stratospheric signals such as the 11-yr solarcycle

Gefs and eps have traded places. Now eps a little faster with the mjo it looks like. Still feeling like after new years for a potentially really nice - NAO and perhaps AO too. To me, ensembles are showing a gradually improving pattern. Which makes sense with slowly moving mjo. We'll see, steady as she goes for now.

Not sure we would want too much of a theoretical +PNA -EPO -NAO pattern. We'd probably just get the polar vortex sitting on our heads and freeze to death.

Getting EQBO composite vibes from the extended 12z EPS mean today.

Don't know if many are familiar with the ecmwf cluster analysis. It's UK centric, so not much use with the Pacific. However, you can still see what's happening locally. So there was one cluster on the 00z eps. Granted, a minority of the members, but nevertheless there was something mixed in there. Is it a longshot, absolutely, but it's not totally 0% yet.

Keeping one eye on this.

I'd be shocked if this year is even remotely close to something like 11-12. Tropical convection is night and day different from that year. It was stuck the Indian Ocean to Maritime Continent in 11-12. Which is god awful for winter prospects. Remember 19-20 winter? Turns out the ++IOD was a huge problem, in hindsight.

Couldn't hurt to keep one eye on this 21st timeframe. Trends have been to take what looked like a huge western trough at long range and cut it off offshore instead more recently. That would allow some room for a transient height rise out west if that were to continue trending.

Happy hour gfs is always entertaining. Sure, let's have the PV set up at 50/50

Thanks for the kind words. Nobody I know cares about this stuff. So I figured I'd post some thoughts

I enjoy looking for colder outcomes. To me, warm is far and away the favorite as we move forward through the years. I enjoy cheering for underdogs. I do wish we would do something about it. However, it seems to me there's just too much money to be made not doing anything.

Totally fair thoughts. I'm just posting my own thoughts based on the reading that I've done. I'm more curious about how these thoughts work out more than anything else. It's just a fascinating case this year, and I'm already enjoying watching the progress. Always more to learn.

Also WQBO that year. Another strike against mjo modulation of the pattern. Propagation too, for that matter. In light of recent research, enso along with QBO are very important factors to consider. I've taken up the hobby of reading research papers over the summer the last few years. I've been able to gain some good insight into certain areas from this exercise. The QBO has been a focal point recently. Apparently, it's quite important as a modulator. 2018 -1.39 -1.50 -1.59 -1.75 -1.84 -1.95 -1.82 -1.12 -0.36 0.15 0.59 0.90 2019 0.89 0.84 0.98 1.09 1.32 1.54 1.44 1.36 1.12 0.97 0.73 0.38 2020 -0.05 -0.18 -0.33 -0.41 -0.27 0.14 0.58 0.94 1.10 1.26 1.22 1.09 2021 0.99 0.81 0.82 0.43 0.16 -0.20 -0.52 -0.58 -0.90 -1.18 -1.30-

That year though was warm enso. Which is a more unfavorable state than la nina for effective modulation as per research. Apples and oranges IMO. I have no expectations. I'm merely trying to take science and apply it to the current situation. If someone else has expectations, that's on them. Not long ago we were reading in here that this wave couldn't propagate, that was incorrect.

I have some questions about those +AAM composites. Is la Niña factored in? Or is that just all years? Is qbo factored? These are important factors to consider. Different combinations of those are very capable of much different results.

I've read some discussion on this mjo wave being the catalyst for that. I'm not very well versed in AMM. Would be interesting to look into more at some point in the future. I've also read some discussion that this AAM coupled with a mjo phase 6/7 passage has potential to land heavy blows to the SPV. This particular year is really interesting to me. I'm fascinated by how this could play out moreso than actually getting anything out of it. Looking forward to seeing what happens. I'm still feeling good about it though at this time.

It's a valid concern. History with such events tells us that. However, I feel pretty good about this one. The slow moving nature and background state argue in favor of effective modulation. Time will tell. I suspect we'll continue seeing improving looks on ensembles as we monitor the inferno of this week.

Yeah, exactly. We're still in phase 7 at the end of the eps from the looks of vp 200. I do believe we're seeing a trend more towards that phase 7 look. Gefs is still rushing things a little IMO.

Phase 8 wouldn't be happening until after the end of the ensembles. I think some people hear that we're heading in that direction and expect faster changes. Patience is suggested. Reminder, it's a slow moving wave. Which is a good thing.