EasternLI
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Everything posted by EasternLI
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Not there yet, but definitely doing some training.
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If nothing happens before February. I'm with you. I've aways said something needed to come together in January. Watch, now we'll see a SSW in mid February and well have lousy weather until June. I'd prefer we fire up a snowman19 ridge and rip the bandaid off.
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Yep, need some sort of a phase with the northern stream to get the STJ to do anything for us up here. Between now and the end of the month there's still a chance of that. Although nothing looks overly exciting at the moment. I suspect the best chance is when that cutoff in the SW is ejected. Or as the ridge begins to retrograde near the end of the month.
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That was not a good 12z euro op run for Saturday. However the 12z eps look says that the period should not be ignored just because of today. Keep an eye on it for the time being. If it trends worse, it trends worse, but tomorrow is a new day. -
Euro doesn't get it done. Northern stream more progressive. Outruns the Southern stream.
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Yup, Gfs has the southern energy take vacation in Mexico. You don’t want that. But the northern stream component looked a little bit better. The euro used to be better with handling the southern stream and phasing. So we'll see if that's still the case. It needs to keep the same solution at 12z.
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I don't like the icon, but it did make the right move at 12z. Much better at 500 than 06z. Want to see gfs at least move in this direction. Doesn't need to come all the way around yet, but make the right improvements. Euro needs to stay locked in with its solution today.
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I couldn't agree more. I'm just not really looking at the long-term too much currently. With the weekend on the table. Even after the weekend, there's still some more good potential before February too. This will be interesting to monitor moving forward for sure though.
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That was definitely an improvement on the 12z NAM at 500mb. Not quite like the euro yet but definitely better. That's a start. Didn't head the wrong direction. Let's see what everything else does.
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I like that there's a nice cluster in a good spot west of the mean there. Still want to see some other guidance come around more. Zero confidence until that happens. The euro has been steadfast in wanting to phase. So we'll see. I feel like maybe the euro would be better in this type of situation, but who knows.
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Yes, but the reason the euro was a hit was because it showed a clean phase. Nothing else is doing that yet. So they miss. I believe that's what he's getting at. It's not a straightforward process of the low being west or east. Hence my agreement with him. Hopefully the euro has the right idea here.
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I'm in the same boat. Euro on an island isn't good enough for me. Need some other guidance to come around.
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I certainly like the spot it's in currently. Long ways to go yet. There was a time that the last one was thought of as OTS. I don't trust anything Euro included. It'll be interesting to see what guidance does tonight.
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There's a lot going on at 500mb. Would love to see the euro hold and get some other guidance on board. Or at least start to. That was an improvement on the eps, so that's good. Would like to see the gfs come around at least somewhat to the euro idea in coming days. Cautiously watching. Following ensemble trends for now.
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12z eps for Saturday 00z for comparison
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Here's that depiction on the 12z run. It's cool to see that, because it doesn't happen very often.
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3k NAM was showing that as a possibility with the flow off the water ramping up. Pretty cool.
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People are going to stay up all night to watch models for an impending event regardless if there is a thread or not. It's always been that way. In fact, this is nothing compared to the old days. 40 pages lol. We would have had over 100 back in the day in here. Plus if Walt Drag, of all people, sees a need for a thread. By all means, there should certainly be a thread.
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EPS at 00z still likes the weekend. GFS doesn't look like a mirror image of tomorrow anymore. So that's a positive. GEFS is pretty far SE, but it did that with Monday as well. Cautiously watching.
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High wind warning up out here with gusts to 60mph. 3k nam suggests worst of winds would narrowly miss, but slam RI to Cape Cod. 12k nam hits eastern Suffolk and then the Cape. Hoping for the narrow miss.
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Agree. I'm really curious to see what the findings are with this after further investigation.
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The scientists on Twitter who study this stuff are really buzzing about it. So that grabs my attention for sure. Sure looks like a very impressive event.
