EasternLI

I was just having a little fun. Can't be serious all the time. The world could use a little more levity.

14-15 was a furnace December. Not calling for that, but that winter turned out fine. I've seen some fat squirrels this year too. Let me get the farmers almanac. Nope, we're porked, we had a full moon in August.

Here's an example on the 12z gefs. Here's the upcoming pattern. We know, it's not the best. Here's the upcoming pattern continuing. Here's what that pattern is doing higher up on this run.

We should have a good idea what's going on by mid January I would guess. One way or another. But not yet IMHO.

Part of the deal right now. You certain it stays that way until April?

A lot of football spiking on the season. It's Dec. 22nd. I wouldn't be so sure, yet. -PNA is part of a pattern which can cause heavy damage to the PV. A pattern that could possibly set up for an extended period. If it goes off, would have an effect on February into March.

It's interesting that east based la nina plus -PDO is a later season -NAO signal. I wonder if this phase 7 business plays a role with that signal.

Doesn't necessarily mean el nino. Just means la Niña is likely not returning.

Agree.

For the record, no that does not mean I'm already moving on to next year. Seeing that strat disruption pattern on ensembles. If we get an extended time with that, not sure what that's going to do upstairs.

La Niña self destruction countdown begins. For those who would like such things to occur. With an extended event ahead, this could be interesting for next year.

On self destruct for next year?

Ugh. Same to you and everyone else!!

Woke up with congestion and a headache. Ugh. Home test was negative but trying to find a place for testing anyway. It's proving very challenging at this time. High demand

Research indicates it's more phase 8 for NE snowstorms. There's a paper somewhere out there on that. The reason is that it's capable of altering the jet orientation to be more favorable for such events. The phases are just different locations where tropical convection is active. It can be much more complicated, but that's the basic idea.

Little bit of action in the strat too that run. Wondering if that's related. That would make sense.

18z gefs is taking this new mjo wave from phase 6 and really amplifying it now in phase 7. Don't know if that happens but that's the first run (gefs or eps) I've seen doing that.

Agree with that, emphatically. This is a powerful force this year. 200mb streamfunction reveals a commanding presence. Also, no surprise, right where it needs to be for a -PNA.

Won't happen. We'll find a fluke event in March or something. Would be unprecedented though.

Big picture. The strat is up to bat next IMO. Probably hear some talk about it over the next 2 weeks. This current - NAO isn't going to last forever. We'll need a strat assist to keep the arctic favorable down the line. There's real potential there though, but mother nature is going to do whatever she wants. So we observe. Maybe we spin the ssw roulette wheel.

Thanks for the kind words. I'm on the search for a good pattern. However, I'm not going to let that cloud my judgment. That's pointless to me. All of your reasoning has merit. You bring up good points often. The only issue is the abrasive delivery at times. But it's all good. You're right, we don't really want to see that. That would end up +AO and with that Pacific that would be that.

Yup. This stuff is challenging for all models. So constant monitoring is helpful to "look under the hood" so to speak. There's some hints I'm seeing that a new wave takes over in phase 6 and propagates right into to phase 7. But as the old one is dissipating. So it's a stalled out in Phase 7 look on the ensembles. Griteater has a nice thread on Twitter about other years that did something similar. The hope is that this phase 7 will do significant damage to the PV. It's pretty much wait and see what happens at this point.

In fact, there's some of that happening right now. It's just not doing enough to alleviate the deep -PNA as it stands currently.

IMO, it's this area of persistent convection north of Australia causing this persistent -PNA. So you would want some subsidence to push east from the Indian Ocean to tamp that down somewhat as the mjo moves east. That's what was happening on some of the better ensemble (eps & gefs) runs last week. Not so much currently. This is also a piece of the la Niña base state. So it's definitely a challenging proposition, especially with very warm water in this area. Just wanted to point that out for those wondering why that -PNA is there in the first place.

Actually, after looking a little closer at the MJO. It's more like this current wave is dissipating on the doorstep of phase 8. With a new one emerging in phase 6 moving back into phase 7. Eps and gefs both have that look. Almost like a new pulse of energy? Interesting stuff.