EasternLI

Stuck in phase 7 on the eps and gefs today. So it’s just a very similar pattern continuing on those right now. The flip side though, being stuck in phase 7 has legit potential to deal hits to the PV. How much so? Seems like it could be significant if we actually were to get stuck in a pattern capable of doing that. Repeatedly.

Eh, eps has been struggling too. I don't see this as an exclusively gefs thing. Otherwise, agree.

I don't even look at those. However, that one seems like a good approximation for today. I'm using VP 200 supplemented with 850 zonal wind for the most part. Those charts get wacky sometimes.

Strange mjo modeling this morning. It's almost like this wave tries to get into phase 8. Dies out and a new one gets going in phase 7. Weird.

Maybe. There's a couple forks in the road ahead. We just need to see which way the driver takes us. Hopefully you paid him and not snowman lol

Here's an example. This is only an example. The 18z gfs progressed through that same pattern. Then, look what happens upstairs.

That's kind of the way I'm leaning right now. But phase 7 is interesting anyway, that pattern can have ramifications up north. This is all way better than being stuck in the IO or Maritime Continent either way. I'd just pack it in if that was what we were facing.

The question is, does it progress after a stall? Or what happens? I still see pretty strong subsidence in the Indian ocean edging into the Maritime Continent on the end of both ensembles. So I don't think we revert to that area. At least not initially because of that.

Well, you can get variations depending on other factors too. I feel like ensembles are showing a version of this bumped west a tad. Not a perfect match by any means but some similarities, moreso on the GEFS run.

EPS with a nod now to the GEFS at 12z with the mjo IMO. That's a new development today. Stall in phase 7 is a real possibility. So you can see, the nice pattern previously displayed, now delayed as a result. The trough was further east by this time on the 00z run. That's why it's important to keep an eye on this stuff.

Oh, I'm not saying that. I'm looking at the bigger picture. Which is muddy right now at best

A very large part...

Sure looks like the MJO is stuck in phase 7 on the GEFS. That's what I was seeing earlier too. Eps hasn't done that quite yet regardless of what the RMM plots are showing. So the GEFS has that pattern lingering. But again, if that happens, what is it going to do to the PV?

I'm not saying it's impossible to, it's just not the best.

Here it is, this is the pattern we're not very fond of. But, the PV isn't really fond of it either. An amplified version of this would be interesting.

My fear is the next super el nino. Whenever that is. Global temp spikes accompany those. We really don't need that.

Agree. I've been monitoring this mjo since November. That's when hints were showing up. Gefs has done slightly better than the Eps during that time for whatever reason IMHO. Eps lost the signal at times. Neither has been perfect. Even 2 weeks out is a challenge. When they're on the same page though, that adds confidence. But even then lol

Right, absolutely. I've always assumed that the pattern would break around mid month, but that's just a guess. The upcoming pattern, while uninspiring for the rest of this month, is capable of doing damage to the PV. Some runs show that. Ultimately to what degree? Who knows. Not really clear to me how tropical convection is going to behave moving forward currently between guidance either. We're at an interesting point right now. Plenty to monitor moving forward. The other interesting thing is this disconnect between the troposphere and the strat. With blocking in the troposphere as the strat does it's own thing above. Which I find pretty interesting.

Yeah it's going to be interesting seeing what transpires. That's a bit of a strange solution there. La Niña base state is subsidence in the Indian ocean. Would be impressive to pull that off. Not saying it's not possible though. Gefs doing funky things this morning. Eps doesn’t jive with it. I feel like we might have to wait it out a little bit to get a clearer picture. Would like to see better agreement.

Oh wow, this is really cool.

EPS at 00z started the changes a day earlier than the 12z yesterday did. New years eve. So now we're facing this look at the end of the run.

Happy new year from the 12Z EPS

Link to where I said that was happening? You won't find one, because I didn't. You, on the other hand, said we have had a strong -PNA since September. False.