EasternLI
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Everything posted by EasternLI
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Thank you for this! I had only quickly scanned the winter months and was curious myself.
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Yeah, I mean here's today's satellite example. Just acting like the anchor that it has been all along. To me, this is the main driving force for the Pacific Ridge and resulting -PNA thus far. This is a known area for doing exactly that. We could use some subsidence to to try and knock this down somewhat. Especially on the western flank. But even the last attempt at that wasn't very effective. Models have been continually weakening this late in their runs, but its been an erroneous endeavor to date.
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Until I see some changes near Indonesia at this point, I'm extremely skeptical. Models have been underestimating that area the whole time. I'm interested to see NOAA's update.
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Oh yeah, it could absolutely be worse. All of the cold could be on the other side of the globe. Just would be nice to have some better agreement between those. One way or another.
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That's some pretty good disagreement. Uncertainty seems to be on tap for now.
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I'd be cautious of those RMM charts if I were you...
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Gefs being more stubborn than eps with the western trough. But also more stubborn with higher heights in the arctic. This is 06z Gefs vs 00z eps for the same timeframe, which is the end of the eps run. So some differences noted here.
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Would like to have @bluewave thoughts on this?
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I think we're looking at it right now TBH, at least back to 1975 during winter months.
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The greater concern, to me, in light of this potential. Is that a global temperature spike is known to be associated with such events. Something the planet could really do without IMO.
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Gefs and eps are doing different things with that ridge after it gets cut off. Eps retrograding it. Gefs it's still meandering around just north. Found that difference interesting.
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I look at that map and see a recipe for an ugly severe event.
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Yeah, it's almost like it's trapped between that and La Niña. Some of it moves on at times, but that base area just stays put. I think it's a testament to the amplitude of the MJO this year. The QBO argued for that. Because of cooling in the very upper troposphere. It's impressive.
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Wanted to post this here. I found 2 other years that did anything remotely similar to the current MJO. This year is higher amplitude than both. From the BOM website back to 1975. Super El Niño followed both of these 2 years later.
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Super duper could be this next one if this phase 7 business keeps going thats for sure. That's what's building up all of the subsurface heat right now. At high amplitude too.
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Yeah, that very warm water over there just keeps feeding the convection. So it's like it's holding it back almost. Pretty crazy actually. That's what it looks like keeps happening.
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Also kind of interesting that those years were enso neutral.
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Super El Niño followed both of these years.... 2 years later.
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I only saw 2 years that did anything like this with the MJO. Back to 1975 on the BOM website. But they were less amplitude and the timing was different.
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That could keep going. That's pretty wild.
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Not saying it isn't. Just saying what it looks like.
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My take after the 12z eps and gefs MJO. The MJO isn't going anywhere. Phase 7 forever. Australia seems like an anchor just keeping it there. At least for the foreseeable.
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Just a thought. I wonder what's going to happen to the PV because of this? That wouldn't be in range yet. Seems to me, if you shove a very anomalous ridge to the pole. Could have some kind of effect. Vertically.
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This makes sense. I've noticed too they can be very good at rolling a pattern forward. As long as there isn't an emerging factor that could change the equation. The study I mentioned also stated that internal variability within a pattern was an issue.
