EasternLI

12z euro ensemble on board

12z euro for Friday

Happy new year fellow weather enthusiasts. The 00z EPS agrees with bluewave's assessment.

Yes. One way or another. We need to see some sst gradients otherwise it's useless. I imagine other factors would just take over. Like a enso neutral. Not really much of a gradient in 18-19, just warm all over. Hopefully it's not a totally permanent feature yet, but the outlook isn't great. I'd like to give a moderate one a shot. We haven't done that in a while. But I think a strong one is coming sooner rather than later. This mjo has been downwelling that record warm water during this time. I'm curious to see what happens with that.

Yeah, there was a +PDO too which I believe gave a big assist. But that's uncommon for a La Niña.

Scandinavian/NAO blocking seems to have dominated. Some similarities with a standard la Niña pattern in the Pacific. Strange year really. Basically a -NAO la Niña.

Dateline forcing in 02-03. Hence the love affair with Modoki El Niño’s. Fortuitous little warm pool sitting right there that year. +PDO too.

Yeah, exactly. I suspected it would be better after that 500mb look. Nice to see it move along finally. It gets pretty convoluted later in the run. I'd imagine we get back to the warm pool sometime in the 2nd half of the month. But we'll follow it and see how it goes. It's been fascinating following this one and I'm sure it will continue to be. I'm pretty happy with this development for now.

Yeah, that was a nice run this time. Verbatim has a low pressure off the coast on the 15th too. Can't ask for much more at this range.

We take this look. Now we're getting somewhere for day 5-10 mean. Finally looking much better this run.

14-15th is ripe for something that run IMO. After that cold gets in here.

Here's a storm chance after that passes IMO

We're going to get a real shot of cold this month if this is accurate.

I really like the idea of regimes. But I think it could use a little tweaking. It just feels like a bit of a misnomer calling this current regime a "arctic low". Which they are. I understand there's similarly. It just doesn't sound right to me looking at this IDK.

Yeah, that was insanity over there. Firestorms are utterly horrible.

EPS with another decent run moving the MJO along on the 00z. Some signs of it making it's way back around to the warm pool area for later in the month. Will keep monitoring it. That would seem to make sense to me. Nice run again with the western ridging. Hopefully we can make something happen with that while we have it.

Dry conditions and very strong winds culminated with a disastrous wildfire in Colorado yesterday.

Definitely a healthy looking vort at least. Close up the mid levels a bit more on that gfs run would have helped a lot. Wouldn't take a lot to see a better solution. Nothing major of course. Hey, at least it's something to look at for a change.

Yes, that's true. It seemed to want to linger more near Indonesia on the 00z run though to me. So that gave me pause. I've seen that before. This run was moving it along a bit better again though. So we'll see if that continues for a few runs. Tricky situation with that warm pool and La Niña.

Ok, not sure who's being referenced. I think there's been plenty of warnings of various factors in these threads.

Yeah, this run with the EPS was better with moving the MJO again. It get wishy-washy sometimes so need a few more runs. But it was nice to see anyway.

Well, just saying what it showed. More neutral AO. +NAO look to me. Let's see a couple of more runs anyway. It did make a move with the MJO this time too.

Yeah, that's much better than last night.

That EPS run was back on board with getting the MJO moving again. Decent run this time.