EasternLI

EPS isn't loading for me. Must be too many weenies dumped in the mainframe.

What a nuke!!

Trends on getting these two shortwaves together. All I care about. So far looking really promising today. Someone keep the Euro glued to it's solution plz.

Heavy lean west on the 12z gefs today.

This should be better here from the gfs. Better interaction. Not staying behind in the sw as much.

12z rgem in the euro camp.

Here's a couple probability maps of the 06z eps. 6+ and 12+

That seems to be the key for this at the moment. Would love to see other guidance come around to the euro idea more starting at 12z. But at least for now, the European guidance wants nothing to do with leaving it behind. We watch.

It's running now. Not out far enough yet. I'll post it once it gets there.

The mongoose is in the henhouse....

Here's the 00z EPS

Who cares about February right now. We have to get through this week first lol.

18z EPS

Gfs is within the ensemble spread. Just another solution which is still totally possible currently. Not much else to take away from it really.

Agree. Definitely could be a contender. Has that kind of potential.

The moisture feed for this thing seems even more impressive than the one that nailed WNY and Toronto.

What you really want is a -AO and +PNA combo. That's when you can fire up the weenie bus with some more confidence.

Well if that happens it happens, nothing we could do about it anyway. However, that's the best look we've had on the EPS thus far with a very sizable cluster closer to the mean. Which is good. This thing has a ways to go. We're still not even in range for the 18z euro or nam yet lol.

12z EPS starting to tighten up a little bit.

Still a long time to go. I'll tell you what though. If we were to blend all of this operational guidance right now. That's a pretty darn good look for this subforum as a whole.

I wouldn't hate on that euro run as is in the city proper. Don't go by the clown maps. You had a solid 700mb look there.

This is a tricky setup. Lots of moving parts. Don't get too caught up with any particular solutions yet. What we need is to look to narrow down the spread between all guidance. That's step one for me.

12z GEFS

Just read Mt. Holly's take. Thought it was a really good breakdown of the situation as it stands. Worth a read, especially the first paragraph. In the long term, all eyes are on the end of the week as a potential storm takes shape off the US East Coast. The Arctic high pressure from midweek remains in control through Thursday. From there, the range of possible outcomes diverges wildly. With strong ridging present in the West, a deep trough will dig into the Southeast, with a strong shortwave embedded within the base. This trough will gradually tilt from positive to neutral or negative as it moves towards the Southeast coast. This will spur offshore cyclogenesis, with its strength and placement dependent on how fast the trough begins to tilt negative. In addition, the developing storm appears likely to eventually phase with a northern stream shortwave dropping out of Canada, which would yield further intensification as it moves north or northeast. The track of this developing low will then determine potential impacts for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Based on the potent nature of the shortwaves involved and with unusually strong baroclinicity likely to be present, this has the potential to be a strong storm. Certainly cannot ignore the number of various ensemble system members and occasional deterministic runs showing sub-970mb cyclones along or within striking distance of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. At this early stage, a multi- cycle consensus of model guidance favors a glancing blow for our region, with potentially greater impacts towards New England or Atlantic Canada. However, this system does have some of the hallmarks of previous high impact storms where medium range models displayed a right of track (ROT) bias. And ensemble spread has generally been favoring the left side of the means and deterministic runs. So we are definitely not out of the woods, but we also have several days to watch this, and it will likely be some time before we can definitively say whether there will be any impacts locally.