weatherwiz

Only the low-end events no...this summer will be much better than tonight. Tonight won't be much of anything really. The core of the LLJ is off to the east and while mixing looks pretty good llvl lapse rates are not very ideal. Best gusts tonight will occur with the CAA

meh. A line of heavy downpours with gusts 40-50 mph. And it's a quick gust too.

We are actually like 5.75 weeks away from the GFS getting into the beginning of severe weather season here!!! You know how the Groundhog is used to like forecast 6-weeks of winter or whatever? We should get an animal to do that for severe...like a chipmunk or something,.

why do so many on Twitter seemed surprised about this snow potential Wednesday? Signal was there since last Thursday/Friday.

meh

Heartbreaking what happened.

Noooo I missed this yesterday.

Jeez... there's live feed but Ukrainian nuclear power plant is on fire and being attacked on all side. this is scary

I don't have and don't know is there is meteorological evidence to back this up, but I would have to say March is the toughest month to forecast for the medium-to-long range (I suppose you can throw one of the fall months into this). But with March you are fighting the seasonal transition, probably starting to see wavelengths shorten, you're introducing the potential for a greater degree of convection, and obviously big changes are occurring within the higher latitudes relating to increased sunlight, jet stream winds, and changes to both the TPV and SPV.

I think if there was a high-end moderate/high risk day that would be in the cards. But the stories out of the Plains are kinda wild. I'm not looking to get within 20-yards of a tornado like some of these chasers do. But there are so many stories of chaser congestion and people blowing stop signs and red lights...stupid.

I wish. I have off though last week of May/first week of June which is the two weeks my friend and I had been doing chasing in the Northeast since 2009 (though haven't the last few years for obvious reasons). But this year we are primed to go into the West if we don't get any decent threats here.

maybe we'll get a triple phaser mid-month eliciting feet of snow for New England with hundreds of tornadoes from the mid-Atlantic into the Southeast

I do feel like I'm sinking

It's frustrating beyond belief. I was going back to a notebook I made back in 2012 which I wrote down yearly snowfall data for ALB, BDL, BOS, BTV, BWI, DCA, NYC, ORF, ORH, PVD, PWM, and RIC. The links I had for these sites are no longer active. So I figured I'd go to the NRCC but the data they have there for these stations doesn't match at all for the most part from what I wrote down and data doesn't seem to go as far back For example, on the NRCC ALB only goes back to the 1930's but on the NWS page they have records back to the 1880's. BDL they only have back to like 1948 but I had it back to 1904-1905. Now I know some stations moved locations and not sure if that's why but this is ridiculous.

I bought volume 1 several months back and they accidentally shipped me volume 2. I could have also bought volume 2 but I shipped it back. I was planning on getting volume 2 at some point soon.

Same thing with severe weather. With tornadohistoryproject gone bye-bye there really is no place to quickly access tornado data...or to break it down as easily as you could on tornadohistoryproject...that place was a bible. You can download an Excel File from the SPC site but I've gone through it and there are even inconsistencies on there and you gotta be super careful with how you use it b/c I'm not sure how it works with multi-state tornadoes and it even has the same tornadoes listed multiple times and there's even numbers missing...it's ridiculous.

It is absolutely stupid, ridiculous, careless, irresponsible, and dumb how horrifically managed and kept this stuff is. How hard is it to maintain snowfall records and data and create a database??? There's all these different databases and they all show different stuff. Create one freaking thing and put it in one freaking place and MAKE SURE IT'S CONSISTENT.

Do you know where all the station yearly snowfall records got moved too or which is going to be most accurate? Found ALB on their NWS page https://www.weather.gov/media/aly/Climate/ALY_Seasonal_Snowfall_Totals.pdf But if you go to NRCC the period of record they have for them is significantly later and the yearly numbers don't match b/c they use Jan-Dec not May - October This is so frustrating and stupid

Where in the heck did all the yearly snowfall records go? Using http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ but there are some massive differences for some stations that I had written down like 10-years ago. I'm sure too part of it is isn't snowfall record technically July 1 - June 30? For example, I had snowfall records written down for ALB which went back to 1883-1884 but here starts 1939-1940

Been pretty busy and there hasn't been much going on locally...and I've been spending some free time digging into the Northeast Snowstorm volumes.

That is pretty wild looking for tomorrow...wow. Some decent llvl CAPE too.

Got the northeast snowstorms volumes 1 and 2 in the mail the other day (yes I'm embarrassed I went this long without having them). Excited to changes gears and put a ton more studying into winter weather! Last weekend's storm really inspired this change.

Kocin-Uccellini

I am ashamed to say I don’t have the KU books about Northeast Winter Storms (though I always wanted). Well…after this storm I realized I need them so I just bought both volumes!!! I spent all of my life obsessed and studying severe weather but it’s time to change. I mean how many big severe weather events have we really gotten to study? I want to shift my focus towards mesoscale evolution during big winter storms…but first have to 10000% percent understand mid/upper levels.

Same…this really gets me to watch to switch gears and do some studying/research into winter storms. When it comes to these biggies it seems like at the end of the day mesoscale processes and processes which evolve as the storm is evolution end up having much more of a factor than how the entire structure of the storm is evolving (I guess unless you’re talking about a perfect and clean phase and capture but at the end of the day…how often does that ever really happen). At least for myself, this was a tremendous experience in the forecast/communication process. Obviously from the get-go I was incredibly aggressive (which I had my reasons for). But at the end of the day, if it’s mesoscale and evolution processes…it’s probably best to wait until the final second to really go balls to the wall. It can be communicated prior that extreme amounts are possible but don’t forecast it. One big concern I had too (even prior to making a forecast) was the low bombing out so quickly and so far south all the goods would be confined to bands and we would see more banded structures. With that, it’s almost impossible to know where they will traverse until the mesoscale evolutions are known.