weatherwiz

agreed

I think we'll see a small, but concentrated area of wind damage. CAMs have been pretty consistent in getting a line going and has been hitting northeast MA.

There is plenty of sun...it's just being blocked by clouds

The overall extent of this is certainly going to be held back by the extensive cloud cover and poor mid-level lapse rates. With this said, they'll still be numerous thunderstorms today and a few very potent ones.

Be curious to see if its a Tornado Watch. Might be a consideration since its purple

Don't see SIG TOR get above 1 here too often

Lapse rates suck which will hold back potential. Decent CAPE with strong shear so they’ll be some nasty storms about. At doctor now. Hopefully I can get out and chase after but depends how early things fire up.

I 100% agree on this and it’s something I have thought of too. We have had multiple solid Convective events where we got warmer and more humid behind the system.

It’s all about expectations. Being on this forum, I think we all want, expect, and anticipate any type of weather event is going to be high end. This seems to be especially true with thunderstorms. Everyone seems to expect whenever there is a mention for thunderstorms or strong thunderstorms it means widespread damage.

It is but it also depends on what the definition of "big is". It's very difficult to get higher end severe weather (winds > 60 knots, hail > 2'' in diameter, EF2+ tornadoes) without an EML. We can get widespread severe weather (though many would argue most of the reports are just weak/damaged trees) without an EML.

Similar setup Saturday too.

I wonder if it follows the instability gradient and ends up progressing into areas not within the Outlook

Looks like capping around 500mb and quite a bit of dry air aloft may be big inhibitors tomorrow say south of the Pike. I'm leaning towards a scenario tomorrow where we see discrete supercells develop across eastern NY and move into VT, MA, and NH with activity organizing into a line towards eastern sections. The forcing is really tied into the strong shortwave with not much frontal forcing (no real cold front pushing east). Given the degree of wind shear, both speed and directional, the degree of forcing we will have should favor a discrete storm mode. There may be enhanced forcing farther east (sea-breeze) which may help activity consolidate some. I am very uncertain as to what to expect south into CT, but I think the seabreeze front should act least act as a initiator.

Indeed, quite a bit actually. This could end up being pretty nasty across northeast MA.

At least there were some microbusts that weekend. Wasn't there also a macrobust too?

That was from 2010 we have 5% tomorrow

Tomorrow may favor eastern areas (say east of 84) but I would not count eastern CT out. Have to closely assess this more a bit later on but there seems to maybe some some capping or maybe some subsidence issues in CT but activity could develop very quickly east of the river.

May see an upgrade to enhanced. Could see a decent swath of wind damage reports.

It’s alright. Thursday is going ti be what we all want. Hot with super high humidity. Friday maybe even better.

Just enough bulk shear in place to help everything become organized, but llvl shear is pretty weak (which is a player in the FF potential) and llvl lapse rates aren't particularly steep (thanks to the extensive cloud cover today) so we really need some good cores to get damaging wind gusts.

Stuff may strengthen a bit as it moves into central CT

Well if we can get dews in the 73-76 range that would compensate for poor mlvl lapse rates

There's been some reports. These are pretty decent thunderstorms. Overall, ingredients for anything more than localized severe are a bit marginal. But could see a uptick in some severe potential as lapse rates are steepening and hail CAPE is pretty decent. May at least see some small hail reports and localized wind damage.

if that stuff continues building into Springfield its going to be nasty with the flooding.

no but I think I should be good to chase. Doctors appointment at 9 AM so working remote.