weatherwiz

wow you're right...that's some pretty good llvl wind shear there. Also looks like we could get a plume of steeper lapse rates to work in.

What a difference between the HRRR and 3km tomorrow

Looks like some more flash flooders tomorrow

Friday could be something depending on the timing of the front.

Let’s go!!! Looks like worse will be north

Was taking out recycling and a cute little rainbow

Can hear thunder from Stafford from here. Outside playing with dog. May head in for fear of bolt from blue

hmmm wonder if I should head a bit east.

Hoping that cell over Granby blows up. Would pass pretty close or just scoot to me east

maybe a rogue isolated cell or two but should all be along/east of the CT River now

HRRR continuing to pound NE MA later on

Nice hook signature over Newington with weak rotation

Tough to say. Sometimes cells can interact and it can quickly induce rapid rotation. They have decent cores but nothing crazy noteworthy yet. Decent DCAPE and llvl lapse rates. 2-6km lapse rates though a bit on the weak side which may mitigate wind potential some and eep it more localized.

yeah have to watch closely if that strengthens any

Looks like a decent downburst over Deerfield. WOnder if any damage comes in

Really hoping that line intensifies as it moves east-northeast. Going to go under my overhang in a bit with the camcorder ready to go

Glad we don't live there. Don't need my severe day being mucked up

WATCH OUT!!!!!!

Watch possible Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211620Z - 211745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storm coverage will increase this afternoon, with some threat for damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...In the wake of a weakening convective band now moving across northern New England, showers have developed across parts of western CT/MA, with convection recently becoming sufficiently deep to support lightning across southwest CT. An increase in storm coverage is expected into this afternoon from southeast NY into parts of New England, as a jet maximum moves through the base of the base of the upper-level trough, and related large-scale ascent spreads over the region. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level environment will support continued destabilization this afternoon, with MLCAPE potentially increasing to the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Meanwhile, moderate midlevel flow will support effective shear in the 30-40 kt range, sufficient for organized clusters and perhaps a few marginal supercells. Some damaging-wind threat is expected to evolve as storms mature, especially where stronger heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates can occur this afternoon. Midlevel lapse rates are generally weak across the region, but buoyancy will be sufficient to support an isolated hail threat with any sustained supercells. Also, surface winds may remain locally backed across parts of New England, to the east of a surface trough across eastern NY. This may support sufficient low-level shear/SRH for a brief tornado threat. While the magnitude of the severe threat may remain somewhat limited across the region, coverage of organized storms may become sufficient for watch issuance this afternoon. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/21/2023

And clouded back up with darker bases. DAMN YOU HIGH THETA E / UNCAPPED AIRMASS

Some high cute clouds with blue sky here now

Just had thunder!!!! Thought the dog farted when he got up but the rumbling kept going

Satellite does look favorable for some clearing very shortly, but with these high theta-e/low capped airmasses that can always change very quickly. Shear is certainly sufficient and instability isn't bad, though lapse rates are kinda meh but not as bad as usual. There is good 3km CAPE and LCL's are on the lower side. All about getting a mature enough updraft to develop.

What's with all the posts about "noise"?

That has to be super cool.