weatherwiz

You could go skiing in the morning and hit the beach in the afternoon

It is possible I may be able to swing it so long things hold off until a bit later.

I'll take a piece of this Slight Risk pizza please

Found it! https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00237-7#Fig1

eh after August (or moving closer towards the end of the months) this becomes more true but we have had some super hot stretches first few weeks of August.

It will be interesting to see what happens. I think a few months back I posted a link to this paper which did a study on big event events across the country during a transition from La Nina to EL Nino. The paper analyzed this transitioned with the SST configuration and explored extreme heat waves in the Southwest and heat waves across the East. Basically, the SST configuration we're in tended to favor bigger surges of heat across the Eastern US during the second half of summer (August).

I wonder if we get into any of the big heat sometime in August. Perhaps one reason why it hasn't been overall hot (well above-average during the day) is there really hasn't been any big heat across the country until really these past few weeks across the Southwest. That has finally changed though and there aren't any signs of the western ridging breakdown down. So at some point some of this may break off and head our way, but of course we've had these pesky troughs so any bigger heat may be deflected towards the mid-Atlantic and Southeast (similar to now).

Here is MTD. Warm mins probably the driver here

Also have some pretty nice TCUs developing along the sea-breeze boundary in Branford.

Could see a few beefy cells across western Massachusetts and western Connecticut tomorrow afternoon. Going to probably see some flash flooding as well.

The way the past month has been who knows...may have had a downpour over his house all day

Good ole Hudson River Valley special Friday

Speaking of tropical forcing, I recently (maybe a month or so ago) did some breakdowns of tropical forcing during EL Nino winter's. I focused on Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies as that was the only product that had reanalysis data back to 1900. What I did was look at OLR Anomalies for each EL Nino event to see the different variations. I also used this diagram as guidance: During ENSO neutral conditions and La Nina's the tropical forcing is typically located across the far western Pacific and during EL Nino's this is typically displaced farther east, either towards the central Pacific or into the eastern Pacific. When I was making my OLR composites, I noticed there was a definite variation between each event where the tropical forcing was mostly located. Based on the composites and the above diagram, I split the forcing's into two categories 1. Neutral ENSO Forcing EL Nino Winter's (meaning the tropical forcing as evident by the OLR anomalies) was located within the western Pacific (more typical of an ENSO neutral) 2. EL Nino Forcing EL Nino Winter's (meaning the tropical forcing as evident by the OLR anomalies) was displaced farther east across the Pacific (more typical of an EL Nino episode). What I found interesting was there was actually slightly more EL Nino events with tropical forcing more prevalent across the western Pacific than there were EL Nino events were the tropical forcing was displaced east. Now obviously, the tropical forcing's more west were mostly weak and moderate events and the tropical forcing's displaced east were stronger events. Here is a breakdown of the years Neutral ENSO Forcing EL Nino Winter's: EL Nino Forcing EL Nino Winter's Now...I JUST realized I am an idiot. I am only going ahead with this post because I took the time to make it up and there is something still noteworthy. Anyways my breakdowns here are TOTAL GARBAGE. I was focusing on the WRONG area for the Neutral/LA Nina Forcing. That focus should be centered near 120°E I was focusing more on 150°E. Overlooking this stupidity, like Scott said the placement and location of tropical forcing is extremely important. It would be difficult to interpret with my incorrect composites here but there is a clear signal that the more east the tropical forcing is, the more likely the east is to have an above-average temperature winter and the more west the tropical forcing is, the more likely the east is to have a below-average temperature winter. What is also very clear I think is the configuration of anomalies associated with the Siberian High and Aleutian Low is also extremely, extremely critical, especially during winters where the Aleutian Low is of a stronger signal. Well going to go back and re-do these composites now that I realized the dumb mistake. I guess if any good came at making this post is I was able to catch this error. I have a print out of the first graphic showing the forcing's for each episode and I was looking at my ENSO OLR composites and something like jumped at me. So I quickly made some OR composites for La Nina episodes and realized I was assessing the wrong area of the equatorial Pacific Anyways I am definitely not throwing out the idea of a solid winter just because of "strength" concern.

Ahhh sun starting to break out here now and you can feel the temperature climbing and the air become thicker and heavier as evaporation ramps up and the trees serenade with their exquisite evapotranspiration. I want to feel the stickiness enlighten my skin.

I am almost inclined to side with the NAM because it looks like the whole frontal system becomes an occluded and weakening mess. With that, it still is certainly unstable and upper-level dynamics are pretty good so thinking we may at least some scattered downpours/thunder but may avoid more in the way of widespread downpours and thunder.

Rather drastic differences between NAM/GFS for Friday

Relative to what they've been. Feels like it anyway

Feels rather cool out. I miss the high humidity. Working outside but I may need to switch from shorts to jeans and a light spring jacket.

Aww crap. I forgot I had my car windows open. My car is soaked. My keaster is going to solidly wet on the 1h20m drive home. I may get hemorrhoids.

Nice! Winds got fairly gusty here in Branford. Don't really have much of an estimate but I want to say maybe 30-35 mph.

Major deluge now.

Nice little storm in Branford

I wonder if there is a waterspout with that cell headed towards Madison. Will fish getting sucked up show up on CC

I can hear thunder from cell over Long Island!!!

The high surface-based CAPE is helping parcels accelerate to the LCL and LFC, however, the weak mid-level lapse rates (mixed-layer CAPE) then yields a much slower parcel acceleration beyond the LFC. This is why we're seeing convection easily develop, but really struggle to become deep. The strong shear is helping with the organization.