weatherwiz

upper-level divergence should continue to increase through the afternoon as the core of the jet streak continues lifting northeast Core of llvl jet is overhead now and should remain pretty strong into the early afternoon with moisture transport maximized right over the region While everything was relatively progressive earlier the east trend has definitely slowed quite a bit. Really watching down across New Jersey where precipitation is filling in and convection is beginning to blossom based on satellite.

Tornado Warning north of Philly

Albany's radar seems to have picked up some relatively low CCs over Rocky Hill but don't think it's TDS territory. Didn't see anything popping on BOX or OKX

Watching this area of development. There may be a "lull" behind this initial batch (but things are filling in) but watch for this stuff to blossom as it moves northeast. Can't rule out some peaks of sun in between which would skyrocket CAPE locally

It is in a very favorable environment. Flow too may be a bit enhanced in the valley

yes it does. Quite a bit of lightning with it too. A good sign it's some healthy convection.

May have to watch around Southington, Bristol, New Britain, and Farmington over the next 20 min

Yeah there were some frames which had some pretty low CC's but didn't appear to be quite low enough to classify as TDS. But some of those velocity scans were pretty impressive for around these parts.

I really wouldn't expect much in the way of wind today. Actually, if you're happening to experience a sudden bursts of strong winds there's a solid chance there could be a tornado nearby Any wind though is going to be tied into any very deep convective cores or with any brief tornadoes.

STP is a 1 right over where that warning is near Lowell.

That's a pretty decent velocity signature. Don't see any signs of a TDS yet though

May have to closely watch that area for convection. Could be an opportunity for some initially discrete convection to develop within that and then it begins to fill in.

TORNADO WATCH!!!!

I think those epic solutions we were seeing are hinting at what the max totals will be but thankfully those totals should not be as widespread as advertised. All really going to come down to how progressive this can remain. LLJ is strengthening as we speak so we're going to see a greater flux of inflow too.

So much embedded rotation within this stuff as it enters Connecticut. Plenty of llvl CAPE with enlarging hodos

Some broad rotation just east of Danbury

I got excited in bed when I saw that at like 2:20 AM.

Nice little wind signature headed towards Lakeville, CT

Actually some encouraging signals with this. Not sure if totally sold on that yet though. I'm a little worried this all slows to a crawl once it gets over Connecticut and then gets enhanced with the increasing LLJ.

hmmm very interesting. Right in between Shirley and Lancaster.

Should see the LLJ strengthen over the next several hours. Going to enhance the heavy rain across much of Connecticut northward and should also locally enhance tornado potential.

No MCD yet

LCLs down to 500m with 150 J of 3km CAPE and an area of decent sfc vorticity. Would be shocked not to see a few brief tornadoes around today.

Not a bad looking couplet on that TOR northwest of EWR

That strip almost matches the HRRR in terms of placement.