weatherwiz

Pretty impressive dynamics and forcing Saturday. May end up with a bit of a widespread soaking. Of course there will probably be a zone of far lesser totals but this is looking pretty decent.

Going to Yard Goats Friday night (would rather be going to game 4 for the Wolf Pack but they decided to get swept). Anyways should be some pretty nice baseball weather, be a bit on the cool side but looking forward to being outside for a game.

We're gradually transitioning to a desert climate. the Hadley Cell is playing packman and we're the little balls. Eventually our lush green environment will become poop brown.

Really wasn't that bad...actually felt a little refreshing outside this morning. Hell, even went with the ice'd coffee.

Wolf Pack season over…outshoot them 34-16 AND LOSE 3-1. Pathetic

I elected not to wear the hat but this wind…wowzers. But it feels warmer here then in Springfield but I’m also wearing a light jacket, sweatshirt, plus Pack jersey

Debating on wearing my winter hat to the Wolf Pack game tonight. Going to be a wee bit chilly coming out.

It's certainly helping a bit but the airmass is definitely outperforming the sun angle. There's a stiff breeze which isn't helping things but its legit chilly...even with full sun.

It is chilly out. Feels like a fall day outside.

NBM is 30 tonight for CON lol...what a difference

I am leaning towards a wetter scenario for Saturday. Maybe not a widespread soaking rain, but most should see at least showers. I guess the biggest wildcard in all this is that feature the models have moving north. But even with the front...pretty good dynamics and PWATS spike up.

Going to be a beautiful evening for some playoff hockey in Hartford. Connecticut is quietly turning into the sports capital. UConn men won the NCAA Title (boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo) QU won the National Championship in College Hockey Danbury Hat Tricks won the FPHL hockey championship The Wolf Pack have to climb out of a 2-0 hole in the best-of-five, but if they win this series they go onto the conference finals!

This is an EXTREMELY loose assessment and criteria but I've gone back to look at summers in which we were transitioning from La Nina to EL Nino. I just solely used the Ensemble ONI. Again...just very basic assessment with one strict criteria. List of years: 1904, 1911, 1918, 1925, 1951, 1957, 1965, 1972, 1976, 2006, 2018 Avg. # of named storms: 8.55 Avg. # of hurricanes: 4.45 Avg. # of major's: 1.18 If doing from 1965-on Avg. # of named storms: 10.4 Avg. # of hurricanes: 5.20 Avg. # of major's: 1.40

The core of the sfc high is really just off to our west, but it would appear winds should go calm. Obviously the question is do we decouple...or do some locals decouple and others don't? It's going to be pretty gusty during the day tomorrow but winds should diminish rather quickly moving towards the evening (at least per guidance). Seems like they valley/typical radiation spots should decouple. Hills will certainly be warmer given the above sfc inversion.

For some reason I always forget about the RAP. I think I keep confusing it with the RUC and thing it's no longer a thing...which is an odd thinking because the SPC mesoanalysis utilizes the RAP.

Ahhh that's a very good point. Went to the RAP and there is the smoke!

Can't read the article, but did they really call the 3-year La Nina unprecedented? They're certainly uncommon but not sure if I would categorize it as unprecedented. There have been several dating back to the late 1800's and multiple within the ONI dataset going back to 1950.

Saturday does look pretty decent for some widespread precipitation within the region. Some folks will get lucky with some heavier rains with convection. Pretty decent dynamics aloft and strong shortwave.

I was checking that and it wasn't showing anything. I checked the Vertically Integrated Smoke and 1000/6000 AGL products.

Pretty soon all of North America will be covered in smoke. This is what the dinosaurs must have encountered before they went extinct.

Doesn't even seem like the HRRR is picking up this smoke...

does it factor into the sky cover percentage maybe?

I was just thinking that...I wonder if the NBM is factoring that in?

Actually this is probably where the NBM probabilities come in huge. Tomorrow would certainly be a night where you probably go with the lowest percentile of the temperature forecast.

I'd really like to take some time someday and dig around to see how well the NBM fares compared to MAV/MET. Tomorrow night could be a real fun example to look at. Tomorrow night all about radiation I suppose. Here are some differences MAV, MET, NBM BTV: 31/32/35 BDL: 36/32/36 BOS: 41/42/43 EWR: 42/43/47 CON: 27/26/32 TAN: 29/30/36