weatherwiz

I don’t think there is a whole heck of a lot of forcing. Really was better north and west.

Guidance yesterday and overnight was looking pretty decent but the trends today have been pretty meh.

Best chance for anything really is going to be western Mass and northwest CT and then across southern VT/NH and maybe into northeast MA. HRRR has really backed off the last several runs.

Looks like maybe a TDS with nROT values up around 0.80 which is pretty solid for these parts

Nice core

ha just got tornado warned

Nice looking supercell northwest of Edmeston, NY.

For weak llvl winds these clouds seem to be moving rather quickly.

Luckily too setups like today aren't highly dependent on sfc heating and large CAPE. 850 temps today are around like +12C and 925mb temps like +16C? So with this we were always limited into how warm the surface could get today anyways. Mid 70's temps with near mid 60's dews under 6.5 C/KM 700-500 lapse rates is more than enough to provide enough instability to fuel thunderstorms. 30-35 knots of 6km shear with effective bulk shear magnitudes 30-35 knots is more than sufficient for updraft organization. Nothing obviously screaming widespread severe weather but this is more than sufficient for some scattered severe reports.

Doesn't the text in the graphic seem a bit contradictory than the text of the discussion? Mentions isolated wind gusts 45-60 but then says at least widely scattered wind damage.

Looks like a Watch coming soon!!!!

There is definitely a quite a bit of shear. Check out satellite.

Despite the cloud we're actually destabilizing fairly well thanks to the steep lapse rates and increasing dewpoints. Hell, 2-6km lapse rates are 7-7.5 C/KM which I think is about as good as any setup we have had this summer. I don't think we'll see much in the way of breaks though.

We have not. Nothing that I can recall anyways.

Great to see some decent mlvl lapse rates for once

Just did BOS ASOS

BOS can't be anymore then 83 or 84.

I do wish it was going to be super humid Saturday for Brew at the Zoo. I wouldn't mind getting heat sick from drinking in the humidity. It's special...part of summer.

Tomorrow looks like an Albany special

Weeks as in the overall theme will be humid weather. Short breaks with any frontal passages.

I would think dews increase through the day Thursday. We get that mid-week shot of drier air but Thursday is what starts the theme of higher humidity as the dominant weather type for the following few weeks (with some brief breaks depending on what happens with any fronts).

Certainly going to be dependent on fronts and there position. But the Euro seems vastly different then the GFS Thursday. I really can't see dews that low. Check out dews across the country on the euro and especially eastern third of the country...seems odd.

I wonder if there could be a warm front straddling supercell tomorrow.

I would think dews will be higher than that, especially Thursday

The warmest days will probably be mid-to-upper 80's. But nothing as of now really screaming at anything like widespread 90+.