weatherwiz
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Playing peek-a-boo with a shelf cloud I think
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Yes
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Decent flux of lightning headed my way!!!
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Looks like some weak rotation with cell over Mount Kisco
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Agreed, if you recall that fall event a few years back where Long Island had several TOR's I think that was a critical factor in that event. Dews spiked just prior to the convection arriving which would have resulted in rapidly lowering LCL's and a big instability spike which would have also enhanced updraft speed/strength.
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Quite a bit of 3km CAPE being modeled
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Going to get to BDL around 12:27 or so and that will give us time to shoot west if we want too.
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It is a bit of a concern, but guidance does have a brief period where dews surge out ahead of the storms...something to really watch. If that does happen and this all times with the CAA/steepening lapse rate in the mid-levels there could be some locally nasty storms this afternoon.
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Hodographs certainly not bad looking this afternoon
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Thinking probably BDL may be better option.
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Still unsure of what I want to do today. Maybe extreme northern Fairfield cty on NY border
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Going to target Sharon or Salisbury, CT tomorrow. Potentially even Kent or Sherman
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Yeah I don't see lapse rates as a killer for tomorrow. Steep mlvl lapse rates are important when it comes to the potential for a widespread outbreak and/or significant severe but neither of these are really on the table for tomorrow regardless.
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Both speed and directional shear is pretty impressive in the lowest few km. I guess maybe the higher LCL's could be a challenge.
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yeah right Not going to count on that happening, but this setup I think can surprise if we can destabilize enough. Pretty intrigued with bulk shear and degree of directional shear going on.
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I am wondering though if farther south (or southwest) into CT would be better...as in better chance for stronger storms given dews should be higher.
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Actually BDL may not be a bad spot tomorrow, especially view wise.
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Yeah was waiting for it.
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MARGINAL RISK TOMORROW!!!!!!!! WOOOO WOOOOOO WOOOOO FOOKING HOOO!!!!!! LET’S GO!!!
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Maybe CT (southern) has best chance for stronger storms tomorrow.
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Wednesday continuing to look quite interesting!
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This also highlights parts of NE MA tomorrow. Dry air might be too much to overcome but decent overlap of ingredients for something to work with if it can form
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hmm this targets a bit farther southeast then I was thinking. But at least the NAM anyways develops the strongest CAPE across SNE. Shear profiles are impressive with some good turning across the region too.
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Albany area could be good Wednesday maybe
