weatherwiz

Not good for anyone who may have booked early May in the Plains for storm chasing.

Yup...sucks how this can often be the case. Maybe we can flip the switch sometime during the second half of May.

I don't think it looks that terrible. I mean would we be seeing 80's and some early 90's? No climo is quickly becoming our friend so even if its a little troughy aloft, as long as the sfc isn't crap we will be fine.

All those years were good severe weather years here too...hmmmmmm

Should at least see some thunder chances next week, great way to kick off first week of May.

That might not be too terrible

Today kind of sucks to me, it's great to see crystal clear blue skies but it almost feels like a step backwards with how chilly it feels...even if standing in the Sun.

My hands are freezing and my winter gloves are in the wash

Outside to play with the dog for a few and it is chilly. Even with full Sun and no win. Didn’t even feel a blast of warmth when going from shade into the Sun.

There is definitely biases in most directions, but like you said, it's all mostly in good fun. When there is something noteworthy to track or on the horizon everyone knows how to reel it in and get serious...mostly lol. One of the beauties of our region. If you want a break from the high heat/humidity during the summer you don't have far to go.

I know it's all mostly said in good fun but it's mostly using backyard obs to justify the overall picture. For example, poster A could live in a location where it is 87 and say its hot and and summer is here. Poster B may live in a location (higher elevation, coastal, woods) where it is only 71 and say its cool, where is summer? So who is correct? They're each correct per their location, but the overall picture, its more than likely a warmer pattern in place but where poster B lives there is local influences going on.

I was under the impression from the discussion the past few days that the focus on the cold was Wednesday night versus Thursday night.

You could argue some locations could be colder tonight versus last night.

went outside to play with the dog for a bit after the 1st. It was definitely a winter feel with the wind.

Certainly a concern. I've been debating whether it is the warm front getting hung up, warm front washing out and transitioning to a BDCF, or just a BDCF which dominates WF progression.

Looking outside I can see TCUs popping up. Gotta admit...its making me a little tingly

Tuesday could feel like an early summer day ahead of the cold front with dews perhaps into the lower 60's

Thanks!

@dendrite what's the link for the error bias for temperatures?

ahh gotcha, agreed.

I was wondering how much CAA would factor in. I looked quickly but it seemed like the strongest CAA was moreso during the day than at night? I don't know if it's worth it or not to see how they fare across portions of Wisconsin/Michigan tonight, if anything just a general idea of how they performed in relation to guidance. Looks like the brunt of the airmass though arrives more from Canada.

Wouldn't be surprised if the high terrain of northern Vermont picks up a few inches of snow tomorrow.

Looks like 12z guidance ticked a few degrees warmer for tomorrow night? At least across a few locations. I guess it is all going to come down to if we maintain enough of a wind to keep things mixed.

Agreed, but I can understand this is highly dependent on where you are within the region. We've certainly had some crummy days but we've had a share of very pleasant ones as well. But I get that hasn't been the case for everyone.