weatherwiz

I'm in the general thunderstorm line

I didn't even see your post...we must have posted at the same time But my post wasn't in reference to what you were saying at all, the way the posts lined up it looked like I was refuting your post but that wasn't the case. I agree with you, that is the high end tease...maybe we can slow this down a bit and achieve that.

This thing is hauling. It may be difficult for anyone to achieve more than a foot. I was thinking a 12-16 or 12-18 was certainly doable but that is going to be very difficult I think.

Adorable

The only use mesos will be with this one is helping pinpoint banding and intensity of banding.

I am starting to like the increasing consistency with the GFS/Euro, at least with some of the pieces involved. Not sure or really interested what the snow maps or showing. Based on how this would likely evolve, however, I would think that the best banding and heaviest snow is going to be quite north and west of the sfc low...so even if there was a track which favored say NYC or the south coast, the heaviest banding would likely be north. I think things tighten up too late to really get the banding to collapse south towards the center until eastern areas.

At this time I'm leaning towards an interior northeast Massachusetts for jackpot zone extending into northeast Connecticut (but not quite to tolland).

Let's go baby!!!

I actually should take some time and pull one of Steve's favorite chores...picking up dog poop. There's a few month surplus out in the backyard.

probably tomorrow start paying closer attention to snow growth, lift, snow ratios, etc. I feel like there are going to be alot of challenges with this one. Several red flags and several green flags (or whatever is used to refer to something good lol).

The NAM would deliver the goods to many.

Tomorrow is going to be a fun day. With temperatures around 60 I'm going to sit outside and watch the Bruins game...all while tracking a big snoowstorm...love it!!

Correct. sorry...misunderstood what you were asking.

The SGZ can vary. The snowgrowth zone is denoted within the level of the atmosphere in which temperatures range between -12C and -18C. This is the temperature rage where the best dendrites are produced. So in a colder airmass, the bottom of the snowgrowth zone will start at a lower height level within the troposphere. So you're seeing the SGZ lower there because the airmass is getting colder. Yes, time goes right to left.

the purple/yellow box denote the snowgrowth zone (I always forget though what the difference between the purple/yellow are). The red contours are omega (rising motion). you want the best omega right within the snowgrowth zone (crosshair signature). This is a great signal for heavy snow with intense rates.

BDL - I'll take this come verification

To Tip's point about getting totals that high, that band will be zipping along

The speed of the storm could certainly be a factor in obtaining those higher ranges. That always needs to be factored in when thinking go big or go home type ordeals. Not setting that potential into stone yet, but something I think is viable if everything falls together correctly. IDK...probably more likely it can be discounted but I'm not going to do so just yet. I'm giving until 0z/6z guidance before totally dismissing it. I mean even at this stage we're seeing large spread within the northern stream and still some differences with the southern stream.

Yeah I would certainly be concerned for that as well if I were you. But given how the band should be pretty large, hopefully that would result in your area getting into it too. Still lots to iron out through the weekend.

While I am getting excited I am still nervous that this could end up south and we get skunked. I don't think that should be discounted yet.

I'd watch for Monday to be a bit colder than guidance, especially if thick cloud cover gets in here earlier in the day.

I think a 12-16'' max zone is absolutely doable with this and I agree with Kevin in that it should be entertained.

The differences in the speed of the northern stream between the 18z/12z are insane.

This is almost over my fanny but I'm too skinny to get directly over my fanny. Not bad!

One thing that may help alot of people out with this is that deform band isn't going to be some narrow zone. It's going to be a pretty large (in terms of geographic coverage) band.