weatherwiz

IMO, the snowfall maps have been a detriment to the field. These things get tossed around left and right and literally all they do is create unrealistic expectations and create hype for the public. There is nothing worse then seeing 384-HR snow maps being thrown around all over social media or snow maps for a "D10 threat". There is absolutely ZERO reason. When an event happens the event is then measured solely on how the f****** snow maps "performed". WHO GIVES A SHIT HOW THE HELL THEY PERFORMED. Speaking of QPF though, I think models have come along way with QPF forecasting. But I think mesos have really helped with this.

Would be nice to see this band pivot east a bit soon. I guess it's a good thing you can still see echos feeding into the band so moisture influx is still strong

It's embarrassing the database with seasonal (and subsequent monthly snow totals) is. IDK where to go anymore to find this stuff. Seems any source that exists all has different numbers.

Ahhh thanks! Speaking of that, I should go back and re-read those papers and prepare for next winter. I'll also use Iowa state sometimes for bufkit (as a backup) but this site is so much friendlier. Only issue is if it's down...well no bufkit hmmm..that's a good question, I wonder if Max T in profile is Kucheria, but I don't believe it is.

I believe the only difference the two is just the Cobb 11 is an updated version to Cobb 5. I forget off hand what the difference is, the Cobb 11 uses something slightly different. Cobb method is probably the best method out there, unlike the Kuchera or the 10:1 maps, the method takes into account many different variable, including DGZ and lift. Max T in profile can be good, but misleading. For bufkit I download all my profiles from http://www.meteo.psu.edu/bufkit/CONUS_NAM_12.html I'll have a list saved in bufget so you can just grab the data with one click of the button. If you change the run time to latest, you'll get the most recent data

BDL/CEF down to 33 so that's good at least. Snow coming down steady here, but the growth is meh. If that improves (which it should) we should accumulate quickly here. Then we'll see how much until the bands either moves out or weakens

Certainly something to watch. Nothing overly impressive but maybe enough to where some areas could get in the additional 3-5'' farther east.

This morning was certainly a surprise. I mean I was originally thinking (Saturday) like 8+ inches here then kind of lowered hope once the screwzone signal became more apparent. And then it got to a point to where I had zero clue what to expect...I literally went to bed last night expecting perhaps nothing. But I woke up and was very happy.

I've thought about that...that could really help eastern areas. I know some seemed bummed b/c the storm didn't "bomb" out as shown, but that's probably a good thing...delay the occlusion and keep the moisture inflow alive, even if it's on life support.

Yeah when using cobb method on bufkit, majority of the ratios were within the 6-7:1 range. This is exactly why the snow maps are garbage. I get they're useful in they can really help pin down where the gradients will be and max/min's. Maybe keep the maps but remove legends and values hahaha.

ughhh I'm in a tiny sucker hole...it's like filling in all around me. It's like I'm getting an atmospheric swirly.

Thanks! Liking the filling in,

Progress https://www.weathertap.com/radar/local?site=KBOX&type=N0R&attr=ANI nevermind don't know how to embed

Ah good, that's what I was leaning with too but was a little nervous looking at the RAP and was wondering why precip didn't appear as impressive given the mlvls but forgot I was looking at 1hr QPF

While the mid-level evolution still appears pretty good for banding from the west to push east....I wonder if we start losing the firehose. Once llvl lows track northeast we kind of lose the infux of Atlantic moisture into the system.

Looks like the band may be intensifying a bit over western Connecticut.

I didn't take an official measurement but 3-4'' eyeballed for sure. I wouldn't be shocked if we can pull off another 3-4''.

Just so your post and made me feel very hopeful! Expecting things to get really fun in the next 1-2 hours

I like the fill in over Springfield. It's actually a rain/snow mix now but this should help re-cool the BL.

Banding signal is very impressive. This is what got to me to go ahead and look at the 12z RAP. I think this is setting up very well even for the Connecticut Valley.

I don't remember if this was posted, but this is the 12z RAP...this is the best look yet from the RAP. IF you look at thermals though it has rain and temps in the mid 30's in the valleys...I don't buy that at all.

That's a bit killer with this dry slot...temps are going to rise a bit, but we get the band to traverse they'll drop back towards freezing.

Yeah right...I caught that too. Thought that looked really weird.

LEt's do it

Yup...kinda sucks...was hoping for more Phil here. But based on how this looks to evolve Phil may just be playing hide-and-seek