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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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  1. weatherwiz
    I thought I noticed that too when I was looking.
  2. weatherwiz
  3. weatherwiz
    Even the 18z NAM recovers for an afternoon pounding
  4. weatherwiz
    18z GFS bufkit for BDL. This is really all going to come down to the CCB. Sure the GFS may be "cold" bur when you look at why it's cold, it makes sense. It's tied into the duration of heavy rates. I mean if you're seeing a prolonged period of this much omega into the DGZ it's not only gotta rip, but it will accumulate.
  5. weatherwiz
    This is unreal...still no consistency.
  6. weatherwiz
    HRRR all over the place.
  7. weatherwiz
    Springfield
  8. weatherwiz
    GFS bufkit (12z) for BDL. You can see the dry slot make an a few appearances, but other then that when it rips it rips. Gotta like some of the trends for CCB to go across the valley. And FWIW GFS 2m is ~33 for BDL.
  9. weatherwiz
    Sweet a moderate dot right over me!!!! Whether it be a possible derecho or heavy, wet snow I always make sure to take time looking at the trees outside and wondering how many of them won't be there come tomorrow
  10. weatherwiz
    Exactly! We get screwed initially with the dry punch, but it turns out to be a benefit in the end. The evolution on those models would be about as perfect as possible for probably even all of Connecticut really. Hell, you could argue eastern CT could get "screwed" in the sense the band may lose some punch by then if occlusion happens quickly.
  11. weatherwiz
    IMO, it would result in big power issues. Obviously the shoreline is still cooked, but even the GFS has continued to tick colder with the BL in response to the increasing dynamics and heavier banding. We don't need 6...7...8''+ of snow for problems. Anyone getting 4-6'' is going to have problems and in this solution, 4-6'' is extremely reasonable for many.
  12. weatherwiz
    I'm thinking that if CT is going to get pounded there will have to be some dealing with the dry slot. Dry slot is a product of the developing mlvl center's which happens right over us, but once they're east...the CCB gives us Hershey kisses from the sky
  13. weatherwiz
    How do you not like this?
  14. weatherwiz
    Wow GFS...some slot issues in CT but that's going to be solid. And it is also a tick colder
  15. weatherwiz
    Agreed...only need about 4'' of wet snow to get concerns and that is very plausible for the valley.
  16. weatherwiz
    12z NAM bufkit BDL Paste city pounding for some time.
  17. weatherwiz
    Yup...it totally can happen, that's why it's just not good to throw away or discard any solution right now. I wonder if there is research or literature out there regarding these scenarios. It does seem the past few years we've seemed to be robbed more times then not with these "convective low". I'm sure though the mid and upper-level dynamics play a significant role in whether the convective low becomes the dominant one or not.
  18. weatherwiz
    Bingo...I posted something similar last night (or maybe it was earlier this morning, who knows anymore). But it seemed like there was one supercell the HRRR/Euro were latching on to and going wonkers with the associated vorticity. It's not like there is expected to be a tremendous amount of convection...enough anyways to make me believe that this will becoming dominant with an east tug
  19. weatherwiz
    We're certainly fighting time, no doubt.
  20. weatherwiz
    If the NAM is going to score a coup...this would be the setup. Not saying that happens, but I don't think it can be discounted. My reasoning for this is just based on the upper-level dynamics. Everything you'd want to see for a big hit is there. I mean, we've had setups where mid-levels were great before but we will got screwed, but I'll take my luck any day with mid-level dynamics. If this was a scenario where they looked like crap...I'd be going more conservative the the Patriots offense
  21. weatherwiz
    Can't ask for better.
  22. weatherwiz
    That's an isothermal deck crusher. Also look how unstable around the DGZ!!
  23. weatherwiz
    Hello (this is somewhere around Hartford or maybe north)
  24. weatherwiz
    Guessing what happens is H7 develops and tracks across southern CT and then the system becomes more stacked off to the East and this is when you see the precip shield blossom and looks to be a hefty band developing across eastern NY, CT, and MA. Kind of sucks because the HRRR def wanted to be colder but once the dynamics meh for a bit we bump back up some degrees.
  25. weatherwiz
    It did seem a tick colder and then it went to screwing us
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