weatherwiz

Made it to University of Amherst. Right in the path of the warning

Headed to Amherst. University of Amherst p

I don't think I'd go into my basement for something weak like an EF-0 (unless my house was surrounded by trees).

The better overall forcing is still a bit north.

Thinking we see the line perk up a bit. Looks like H5 jet streak moving overhead which may help some.

2-6km lapse rates are pretty putrid and obviously not much in the way of a LLJ. Mixed-layer CAPE really was not able to boost much today. Should still see a solid line develop and drop across the region, but severe gusts may be tough to come by unless the line were to bow out or maybe develop a cold pool.

going to be super tough to get hail today. High freezing levels and hail CAPE isn't that great. But in any solid looking cores it may be enough to get some small hail to reach the sfc.

Nice core east of Hartford. Maybe some small hail

That's a healthy storm northwest of Albany

eh maybe not side lobe contamination...trying to switch between BOX/ENX/ENX...may be some weak rotation but nothing warnable right now.

probably side lobe contamination there

Quite a bit of SBCAPE with no CIN...wonder if we're either eroding MLCIN or if that will kind of put a lid on how intense this initial stuff can get

Still a quite a bit of mixed-layer CAPE to erode.

lots of crapola popping up

I am rather skeptical about that thing...but I don't use it enough to really have a solid opinion but from the little I've really used it...meh. I'm so sick of all this AI crap

Block Island got crushed this morning

Most everyone is at least going to get some degree of rain. Some of the CAMS hint at some discrete cells this afternoon, but the main show is going to be vey late afternoon and early evening. Will see some very good lightning producers and probably another concentrated swath of wind damage.

I forget what the rate of Dewpoint decrease is. Isn’t about 2C per km past the LCL?

I don’t think morning convection hurts. Plenty of time for recovery.

***THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK CONSISTING OF HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER *** With that out of the way, Saturday features another similar scenario with a shortwave tracking across north-central New England. This shortwave is not de-amplifying like Thursday's shortwave and the response from this will be stronger height falls region wide which will help aid in large-scale lift and good wind shear with bulk shear values in the 40-50 knot range. These values will be more than sufficient to aid in updraft organization and should help thunderstorms quickly develop into one or multiple lines. One thing to note, however, is we do not have an advancing warm front to aid in low-level wind shear, thus any tornado potential this go around is much lower. We remain within a rather rich low-level theta-e airmass and the combination of surface temperatures well into the 80's to lower 90's with dewpoints into the lower 70's should contribute to moderate levels of CAPE once again characterized by mixed-layer CAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/KG range. The degree of instability will be held back once again by poor mid-level lapse rates and warm mid-level temperatures. Given the combination of strong shortwave forcing, decent height falls, moderate instability, and strong bulk shear, numerous thunderstorms should quickly develop moving through the early-to-mid afternoon. Strong bulk shear and predominately unidirectional flow will quickly allow convection to become organized and grow upscale into one or multiple lines. Damaging Wind Potential: The key regarding the damaging wind potential will be how steep the low-level lapse rates (particularly within the 2-6km layer). As mentioned above, low-level wind shear isn't particularly strong. There isn't much of a low-level jet to mix down. This means intense updrafts would have to develop to aid in downburst potential. On Thursday, despite the strong surface heating that materialized, we were never able to really steep the low-level lapse rate which can be a big discriminator in damaging wind vs. non-damaging wind events. There are hints, however, the low-level lapse rate could be steeper tomorrow. We will likely see a similar scenario to Thursday where we see a localized, but concentrated area of wind damage. This will not be widespread. Hail Potential: Very low hail potential given the poor mid-level lapse rates, warm mid-level temperatures, and subsequently, high freezing levels. Smaller hail is possible, but would take some significant updrafts for hail. Tornado Potential: Much lower then Thursday. Flash Flooding: Localized flash flooding is very likely given the already saturated grounds and potential for some training storms in spots.

Yeah I probably will. All in all I think it will be rather similar to yesterday, but with lower tornado potential. Should be good lightning producers.

I think one time I was drinking a 40 at school and I was bored and I tried to calculate a HI by hand with one of the equations and ended up with some crazy number and gave up.

This doesn't make any sense. For example, BDL is 88/70 that yields a HI of 93 (either by using dewpoint or relative humidity which is 55%). The temperature and dewpoint being used to calculate the HI or not coming from the shade.

Sea-breeze, or marine air, certainly has been a big killer as well, especially with early season events. What's interesting though is with waters running so much warmer than average I wonder if this has become less of a negating factor? I do remember some posts from you in the earlier years regarding this axis. It makes a ton of sense meteorologically. This would be a super fun research study (I actually wanted to do something like this for senior research, but it was just too in depth and I didn't have the time to do such a study). Ultimately, we can expect shortwaves to track: 1) North of the border across Quebec, in which the convective/severe potential is more far northern New England. 2) Right along the US/Canadian border, in which convective/severe potential is more northern New England 3) Just south of the border, in which the potential is northern and central New England 4) Right across northern or central New England in which the focus in central and portions of southern New England But we want these shortwaves to either be de-amplifying or remaining steady state - not de-amplifying like yesterday. If yesterday's shortwave was not de-amplifying we probably would have seen better lapse rates as one product of an amplifying wave is to cool the mlvls.

Totally get what you're saying. It is super frustrating when you think things looks good and then stuff weakens as it approaches This killed me as a kid growing up in West Hartford. It seemed to happen almost all the time with squall lines. This is actually a huge reason why I wanted to pursue studying thunderstorms and severe weather because I wanted to know why this happened. People used to tell me it was because of the hills All in all I think a big part of it is due to forcing. More times then not, the better forcing (shortwave forcing) happens to be too far north. So while we may have better instability then they do farther north, they can cash in better because they're being compensated with stronger forcing.