weatherwiz

TDS?

looks like a decent downburst there

looks like maybe a little wind there too. Also not too bad just to your southeast probably

Noah would have really loved your neighborhood

There was a decent little circulation that passed over that area. Decent wind signature too around Putnam/Thompson.

It's a week out but next Friday has quite the intriguing look.

yeah I was going to say maybe lightning? There was actually a decent little wind (or rotational) signature that briefly went over Meriden but I didn't see any TDS with it

Over 15K without power in CT

Yeah pretty solid looking. Wish I was in Branford today, but if I was I'd probably have missed out on this by like 30 min Looks like the core of the winds though may be more towards Guilford/Madison

Looks like some big winds just south of Branford over the Sound.

Just read a bit on the 1858 San Diego hurricane (though not sure if technically a cane since no landfall) but I could picture Steve’s relatives getting on a cross country locomotive to catch the surf

3km (as usual) is much less mundane but does have something rolling through. I'm starting to become more inclined to believing that the 3km is very good. IT usually is much less impressive which often verifies and when it does show something good...definitely keep a watch.

It certainly has had a tough go of it this summer and not just in our region. But convection is very difficult to model really, especially when you get the setups which had occurred in the Great Plains/Tennessee Valley/Southeast where you know MCSs will develop, but pinpointing exactly where/what time initial development will occur several-plus hours out is highly difficult. Anyways. we've been outside the HRRR's range but it has been pretty consistent thus far - again, doesn't mean too much because we had seen that before, but if this remains consistent with the 0z run and subsequent runs overnight...that would be a very positive sign. Need to keep in mind too that we do not need much solar heating in this type of setup.

3km NAM not as violent as the HRRR tomorrow but not bad looking.

If that trough was coming through during peak heating tomorrow would be a pretty big day

They have certainly been pretty awful as of late minus some coops here and there. But tomorrow morning should have some rain and storms moving through.

HRRR with a violent morning

Being teased and tickled at the same time

Late Friday morning/early afternoon should be pretty interesting. Won't need a ton of heating in this setup.

summer back broke we depressed

Well we now have Hilary. Completely bypassed TD category

Kind of feels like Christmas Day

sfc low development low and tracks were unfavorable for pushing WF north. Friday would be more favorable (unless model shift southeast with sfc low).

Instability will virtually be a product of 1) WF placement 2) Frontal timing 3) Cloud cover - although we'll likely have extensive cloud cover, but south of the warm front rich theta-e air will compensate quite a bit. I'd also watch for lapse rates to be a bit steeper than modeled, however, extensive clouds and precip. may yield enough latent heat to keep them from steepening.

I am going to chug my cocoa and close my eyes and my body temp will rise so fast I can pretend it's from the hot, high-angled sun beaming down on me.