weatherwiz

I don't think so because even moving into eastern NY the line didn't have any juice. Wondering if there was maybe some subsidence or maybe an enhanced area of dry air? I know when I was looking at this initially some days back some soundings within the region had a quite a bit of dry air (which of course was associated with the dry slot) with enhanced moisture convergence along the front.

I think the plume of steeper apse rates was north which may have helped with the better MUCAPE north. Maybe the southern batch robbed what moisture was available farther north? The models though were pretty consistent in nailing the areas that got nailed. I thought we would at least see something better across western MA and western CT. But overall, a pretty decent event down into NJ/DE.

Yeah isn’t that something. Pretty bizarre. Have to go back and re-assess everything. Pretty wild it just split and died into CT. Going to guess what helped northern sections was maybe being closer to the s/w forcing and down into NJ they had higher dewpoints.

Going to be getting some good lightning in Springfield but I’m not there BOOOOOOOOOOO

Nope. Oh well. Nice setup just a bit too early

Congrats NJ and DE

Probably not a terrible spot. HRRR targets farther south and west but I don’t think it looks terrible for western CT

Severe watch for Litchfield, Fairfield, and New Haven until 10

Those are 2-6km so low-level but those are what you want to see when looking at the potential for widespread damaging wind gusts. Especially if you have strong shear to tap into

Waiting for it to populate to read the discussion but the outline is a red box. Could be under consideration for a TOR

Curious to see if damage reports roll in from around BGM

RAP forecast in a few hours

Probably in another hour should see a new watch downstream

Hopefully I can chase later. Have to go to New Britain to my niece's birthday party. I'm pumped the Bruins play at 3:00 too...can go after the game.

Already getting CU's to pop up in the dry slot of PA. Want to watch any cells that develop initially for TOR potential (obviously talking about west of our region).

Huge enhanced for wind!!

Can't get any more legit then this Hopefully we can get something like this with an EML in a few months

Our neighbor is having the pine tree taken down April 17. Hopefully mother nature does that for them today.

It's possible, but what would really help is if we were able to sneak dews closer to 60 or like 60-61 like they'll get in NJ into SE NY. That's really the biggest discriminator in this IMO.

I mean I think we're capped on what we can achieve instability wise regardless. Maybe stronger heating yields a couple hundred more J of CAPE. But if we can get temps to climb into the mid or even upper 60's with dews into the mid 50's under 7-7.5 C/KM mlvl lapse rates, given the shear parameters and shortwave forcing, that is more then enough to keep a line into western sections. This will probably weaken with eastward extent some b/c instability will wane with loss of heating, but dynamics should keep an isolated damaging wind gust threat farther east.

mid-level lapse rates really steepen through the day. Very impressive dry slot behind these rain and clouds. This will be fun for western sections later on

The late timing is certainly a concern, especially as you move east across the state. Instability is certainly going to be limited due to marginal dewpoints, but steep mid-level lapse rates should help compensate some. I do think the greatest risk overall is going to be just to our west with rapid weakening across the state, but it’s possible dynamics may keep things going. Watch the steep low-level lapse rates as an aid in maintaining wind potential

HRRR pretty aggressive but not outlandish given shear/lapse rates and strength of shortwave

nahhh...never want to see a scenario like that were property and lives are being impacted. If it was going over a field or woods different story.