weatherwiz

Don't see values like these too often here That's some beefy 3km CAPE. Again though, need a mature enough updraft to be able to utilize this

Everyone needs to clam down

ehhh can't really speculate as to what category at this juncture. Once you're starting to talk about the potential for a major hurricane there is the storm evolution processes which now get factored in and can play a significant influence on overall strength. I don't even feel comfortable saying "major hurricane" potential at this state, however, given what should be very favorable environmental conditions, it won't take much or long for this to really develop.

I could see this becoming a major hurricane. Might be something that gets its act going quickly once passing Puerto Rico and that area.

I can see some patches of Tips Bahama blues. And with some breaks of Sun it got very gusty all of a sudden

Would explain why mesos aren't very bullish in the open warm sector. Sometimes you see the HRRR go wild in these but for it not to be doing much may be telling.

meh not even worth worrying about potential track until a defined center actually forms and the models have something to go off besides a naked swirl with disorganized convection. While this has a decent shot of becoming a strong hurricane, where the center actually forms and how quickly it intensifies are going to influence latitude gains...check those boxes off then start worrying about track.

RAP mesoanalysis still indicating >100-125 J of 3km CAPE by early afternoon with 0-1km helicity >200 m2s2. Pretty noteworthy stuff. Just have to see if we can get any mature, sustained updrafts going.

They can pop up at about any time. Quick hitting, but torrential downpours.

Whatever happens with the eventual track, conditions look ripe for this one to get pretty strong.

ughh that's sad

ehhh even with the farther west track it probably wasn't a bad idea to cancel. The weather still won't be great. It will be pretty breezy out and with the wet ground there will be the risk for some downed trees.

Actually NAM may hang the front up a bit east of the CTRV

Yeah overall the rain doesn't seem to be a big story here. We'll see some typical poor drainage flooding as the axis of heavier rain moves through but there is even a possibility that starts to falter. Almost looks like the cold front starts racing eastwards and becomes a bit removed from the better ulvl dynamics. Have to see how many breaks of sun we can muster in the morning but I suspect we are going to see lots of showers popping up but it won't take much for them to do much if they can get semi-decent cores.

We should see a slight for 5% TOR I would think (maybe with 1730 update). If CAMS start spitting out some more aggressive convection ahead of the main line we may see enhanced risk for 10%. Dews 75+ with this shear is eye opening.

If the HRRR is correct, there may be some enhanced tornado potential between 5 AM - Noon (from south to north across the region). Warm front lifting northwards during this period and is characterized by a very rich llvl theta-e airmass As the rich llvl theta-e air transports northwards, the HRRR has a pocket of 3km CAPE > 200 J/KG surging northwards. This is some significant llvl CAPE. The greatest overall shear is a bit later in the day, however, the HRRR keeps 150+ 3km CAPE in place through the day. All in all have to watch for anything along that warm front early on.

Wow that's pretty wild. Sounds like something you would see over the ocean. Also looks like tomorrow is evolving to be much more progressive, this may limit some of the flooding potential a bit. If we are able to break any peaks of sun tomorrow there could be some nasty cells.

Even showers tomorrow are going to rotate

Interesting indeed, wasn't even thinking about that's a great observation.

Very impressive llvl jet and with dewpoints probably 74-77 there will be more than sufficient llvl instability. What can be a killer on these setups is the atmosphere is just so moist and with no capping things just pop off and can struggle to mature. With the greatest forcing so far west, however, we may have room for increased tornado potential here during the day.

that's alarming for D3 but I take these machine learning with a grain of salt

I don't think that was the case. 1) When Debbie was a swirl of clouds, forecast models struggled since there was no defined center yet, that's why there was a large disparity in initial track, anywhere from eastern Gulf to the southwest Atlantic. Models would just pick up on random bursts of convection as a "Center". However, once the swirl organized into a tropical wave and eventually developed a more defined center, it was much easier for models to get a handle on the track. 2) With no steering flow, Debbie just sat and spun across the Southeast and meandered into the Atlantic, off the coast. Now that we have somewhat of a trough digging up north, combined with an approaching front, the remnants of Debbie are being driven northwards. I don't think strength of ATL ridge played much of a factor here.

Friday and Friday night are going to be intriguing for some tornado potential. With the axis of heaviest rain west, if we can keep the dirty warm sector free of widespread precipitation, that will give any cells a chance to develop mature enough updrafts to warrant the risk for a few brief tornadoes. Could even be some potential overnight as activity pushes east with the cold front. Greatest flood potential going to be PA into New York and then across the favored upslope regions in VT/NH but oof...with that llvl flow and moisture, it could be very ugly there. Guess one saving grace is hopefully the eastward progression is progressive. But I do fear that models are underestimating rainfall totals which will occur with the popup downpours and showers.

Going to see a nasty bow rip across PA later.