weatherwiz

NAM is definitely uneasy

Have to see what the NAM comes in with but it seems pretty difficult to not expect a widespread 3-4”. The rainfall rates are going to be insane with those PWATS and Convective elements.

yup that’s can’t go overlooked here at all. We get widespread 3-4”+ in a short amount of time and it’s going to be ugly.

There’s definitely going to be at least a narrow swath of significant totals tomorrow in the 6-8” range but it’s just a matter of how widespread that swath is and what are the highest totals. The degree of lift over the region aided by a pretty intense ulvl jet and llvl theta-e is going to be bad news.

that would be pretty horrific

Lapse rates are really more important when looking at the potential for significant severe and potential for widespread severe. When dealing with potential for isolated or localized severe lapse rates aren’t as important.

I didn’t even know about it

I've always been curious about these plots. How is mean error obtained?

I rode on an elephant once at a mini carnival and it pooped and they had to follow it with a wheel barrel

I also have my computer chair outside which is leather so when I stand up everything just sticks to me and I have to peel. There really is nothing better than this.

I’ve been sitting outside since 9:45-10:00. Took my SNES outside and have been working on ENSO stuff. Sucks my tent broke (well something pissed me off) but we have an overhang which connects house to garage

I have to work tomorrow too so can't chase So just have to hope something happens locally.

@ORH_wxman when looking at the PDO, what would you say is the best way of classifying a true positive vs. true negative episode and trying to classify a stronger vs. weaker event? I know a lot of folks use the raw numbers, but as has been discussed before using raw numbers alone can be extremely misleading. I'm thinking of doing something like a true positive (negative) (and stronger episode) is when you have higher(lower) anomalies both within the western PAC and off the west coast. If there is an episode where only one of these conditions are met, it's considered a "weaker episode. For example, if we look at 1902-1903 the raw PDO numbers are as follows for the following months: August: 1.81 September: 0.89 October: 1.11 November: 0.74 The ASON average comes out to be 1.14 Looking at that alone you would think that's a pretty solid +PDO, but the SSTAs I think tell a different story. I would not necessarily classify this as a +PDO as you're really lacking the warmer waters off the western United States coast and it would seem to be the PDO number is being inflated by the anomalously cool waters in the western Pacific. Rolling into the DJFM period, the values are December: 0.44 January: -0.04 February: 0.10 March: -0.19 DJFM: 0.08 This is certainly more reflective of a nearly neutral PDO (or very weakly positive) which the SSTA configuration would merely reflect:

LCLs tomorrow are going to be quite low. Theta-e values tomorrow are going to be extremely high so llvl CAPE is going to be pretty abundant. Really won't take much to generate a quick spin-up tomorrow. But yeah flood threat is a high concern. Rainfall rates are going to be pretty insane.

Still a quite a bit of MLCIN across the region, though eroding off to the west.

Well getting into some clearing now so we'll see what happens. Wouldn't be surprised too if there is subsidence in the wake of this MCS (which would help getting some heating). HRRR insists in at least some widely scattered stuff. Mesoanalysis does indicate we remove CIN now relatively quickly through the afternoon. Widespread re-development is off the table, but could certainly see some isolated strong storms later on. DCAPE looks to skyrocket later with really good hail CAPE so some strong wind gusts and hail are possible if any convection becomes deep enough.

I think it's all largely filled in by now.

Lightning hit and lost internet briefly. Dog went wild too.

I agree. It's going to be tough I think. If we were going to push dews into the lower 70's we probably would have had a chance. The last few runs of the HRRR I think indicate differential heating boundaries may be a focal point for re-development later today.

wow you weren't kidding. Looks like that here now.

about to get hit good!!

Here's the 12z OKX sounding. Some good instability aloft. Definite boundary in the llvls. llvl shear is meh but pretty solid getting aloft. Going to be an interesting day. I wish Albany was doing launches

Yeah looks like they could be gusting 40-45 mph...assuming winds are mixing to the sfc. Would be a good proxy to gauge whether any of this convection is rooted more sfc or elevated.

That stuff in southwest Connecticut working with some good parameters. Between 1,000-1,500 MUCAPE and some pretty good shear. Sfc instability is weak, but man if any cells can become surface rooted could see some large hail (plenty of hail CAPE) and damaging wind gusts.

Also clouded up here real quick in Springfield.