weatherwiz

I was going to go on a quick Poke walk but I'm afraid a bolt out of the blue will eliminate me

Moreso just have rain producers with maybe a decent amount of lightning. Any severe will be super localized.

eh not so sure. Seems like a very narrow area for storm development which should be focused west closer to the front/weak sfc trough. The better jet support actually lifts out through the day so there will be a pretty quick weakening trend east.

Lapse rates are putrid and we don't really have strong frontal forcing or shortwave forcing, but we do have enhanced upper-level divergence thanks to an unseasonably strong mlvl and ulvl jet and subsequently dynamics are pretty strong. Ultimately, we should see multiple thunderstorms develop and grow upscale into line segments. This will yield some training thunderstorms so flash flooding potential is quite elevated where thunderstorms occur. Localized damaging wind gusts are certainly possible within the strongest cores and when cores collapse. There is enough hail CAPE that some small hail is also possible. Should be some good lightning though with high elevated CAPE and decent hail CAPE.

I use my nose

Maybe I can leave work early and get to BDL if the HRRR is right

Yup reminds me of last Thursday

GFS overmixes and NAM undermixes (or whatever it is the NAM does)

Agreed, should be more west but wonder if activity persists long enough to get central areas into the mix.

Do we even get cold fronts anymore?

I think the thing with tomorrow really is, while not widespread whoever gets into anything is going to get some intense downpours and could even pick up a quick inch or so of rain and obviously given our situation it won't take much for some localized flash flooding. I'm actually a bit shocked the HRRR didn't have more in the way of development tomorrow, at least within a narrow corridor for eastern New York into Vermont and western New England.

Actually tomorrow is a bit interesting. Don't think we'll see widespread storms because we're lacking better shortwave forcing, though dynamics, particularly upper-level dynamics are quite strong, but could see some strong storms around and motions should be relatively slow so probably see a localized flash flood risk. Western sections are favored, but could see some activity make its way east during the overnight.

Maybe another 0.25'' to 0.50'' across Vermont tomorrow?

Yes severe threat all but done

Friday could be another nasty day with some severe potential. Similar to Thursday

Cloud tops with that batch of convection south of Long Island off the Jersey coast have been cooling quite a bit.

Just got a push notification from NBC app that Tweed New Haven is closed due to flooding

Tornado potential decreasing quite a bit too across western sections as core of LLJ now moves off to the northeast.

Things seem to be filling in from NJ through southwest CT. Some areas are going to pick up easily another few inches this afternoon. What may help is it's not a solid precipitation shield with some lighter intensities mixed in but there will be some significant localized flash flooding through the day.

Both

Yeah very much so.

western Connecticut may luck out but along and east of 84 it's going to be pretty nasty through the day.

Things are really blossoming over New Jersey

Got a little on the breezy side as precipitation has ended

May be a pretty good proxy but probably even farther southwest across southern Connecticut into Long Island. Really going to see radar trends over the next 1-2 hours to the southwest.