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weatherwiz

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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    Also looks like that stuff in SE NY about to track along southern CT is becoming more sfc based so may see increasing risk for localized damaging wind gusts
  2. weatherwiz
    I wonder if we can pop one or two cells later this afternoon across southeastern NH. We aren't going to see much of anything this afternoon, but if a storm can pop it will have alot to work with.
  3. weatherwiz
    It seems to be right along a weak theta-e boundary and nose of stronger mlvl jet. Also have the pressure trough kicking east
  4. weatherwiz
    ehhh the only difference between now and later is elevated convection versus surfaced-based convection. It's a favorable environment for elevated convection and hail. The damaging wind gust threat with this stuff is lower. While it would be higher later on, it may not be that much higher because llvl shear is pretty weak. I don't think there is that much of a difference if this stuff held off a few hours later
  5. weatherwiz
    yup...was hoping maybe it would intensify but nada thus far. But it is a bit more promising southwest back into PA
  6. weatherwiz
    mesonet station measured 59 mph gust in NJ like an hour ago...not bad for this time of day
  7. weatherwiz
    That cell is going to go north of me booooooooooo maybe the Stamford one comes up
  8. weatherwiz
    In Branford...hope to get smacked by that stuff headed in. Nice hail core. Textbook elevated convection. Good MUCAPE and hail CAPE with steep lapse rates
  9. weatherwiz
    Yeah the big heat thus far has been just east of you
  10. weatherwiz
    Must be some issues ongoing at NCEP? Afternoon HRRRs and 18z NAMs not loading on cod or TT...although maybe its vendor related.
  11. weatherwiz
    Give it an hour or so and PHX will probably be warmer
  12. weatherwiz

    RONI?

    weatherwiz replied to jpbart's topic in Meteorology 101

    There are a few papers on this out there. Essentially, the RONI is the conventional Nino 3.4 index minus the SSTA averaged across the whole tropics to remove the global warming signal.
  13. weatherwiz
    Clearing your cache didn't work for you? This is the second time in like a month I had to do that. 2 or 3 weeks ago the NWS hazards page was stuck on old alerts. I thought it was just an NWS issue then 3 days later I just tried clearing and it worked.
  14. weatherwiz
    I cleared my cache and its working now. Stupid cache. Weird
  15. weatherwiz
    hmmm trying to access from BOX site. When I click on Climate and Past Weather I'm directed to this and then nothing loads on the bottom
  16. weatherwiz
    can anyone else not access the NOWData for Daily Climate Reports?
  17. weatherwiz
    I hope we get a massively record shattering heat and humidity dome where we get widespread high temperatures 105-110 and dewpoints 73-75. It all comes to and end when a strong trough comes through and we get CB's spiking 50,000-70,000 feet and some crazy interaction happens with space where solar storm debris get ingested into the storms and its the wildest lightning show on the planet. A derecho then rips across the region and takes out the power grid, beating next year's Carrington Event to the punch.
  18. weatherwiz
    Should see multiple rounds of storms tomorrow, though greatest potential perhaps Pike south? Decent mid-level lapse rates and bulk shear. llvl shear is meh but steep (low-level) lapse rates should help produce strong wind gusts and good MLCAPE/steep mid-level lapse rates should yield some hail potential in the stronger cores.
  19. weatherwiz
    I accidentally left the heat on in my car from this morning and when I turned it on this afternoon I roasted…but briefly. I switched it to AC
  20. weatherwiz
    ummm did two tornadoes just conjoin in southwest Iowa
  21. weatherwiz
    that environment is insane. 70 knots of bulk shear, ~400 m2s2 of effective helicity, 2000+ MLCAPE with CIN eroding quickly, and increasing sfc vorticity. storm mode...looks like we have a QLCS of supercells. Southern flank of this will be ripe for strong TORs. DSM and points north and east in some trouble.
  22. weatherwiz
    Hoping so. I hope we keep some troughing around in Canada, particularly southeast Canada so we can keep the jet stream unseasonably strong. It's been interesting to note though (I believe Tip alluded to this several times) the guidance long-range tendency to be very trough like in the east and showing little heat - only for this signal to quickly fade around the D5-7 time frame. I'd like to see the heat dome over Mexico/west Texas build a bit poleward with an east-shifted axis.
  23. weatherwiz
    It certainly has been quite the stretch. There's already been a handful of PDS Tornado Watches this year. I'm sure there are stats out there somewhere but I would not be surprised if we're ahead of some pace for PDS Watches...hell, probably even tornado emergencies.
  24. weatherwiz
    not as good as this monster in Iowa Nebraska EDITED: Storm still in Nebraska
  25. weatherwiz
    PDS Watch being considered in Iowa...wont be that much longer until we're in on the fun
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