weatherwiz

I don't think this constitutes as derailing the thread. I am not an expert into model development and diagnostics at all so I don't really have an answer to this, but I would think that as biases are discovered there are tweaks worked on to try to eliminate those biases. Ultimately though, I think biases are always going to exist. This is probably also tied into the resources available. NOAA has seen some significant funding slashing the past few decades and this has really hurt the ability to further improve our modeling...now there have been some significant upgrades to the GFS the last decade which has closed the gap a bit versus the European model, but if there was more funding directed towards NOAA and improvement of modeling you'd probably see better performances and biases lessened. Again...this is just my thinking and I have no background into this so it's a thought that should be taken with a grain of salt.

Yes great point, also at our latitude "above" doesn't really mean too much (unless you're talking about something that is in the top percentile). As you know, we can still get a lot of snow and have temperatures be above-average...though yeah it could be walking a fine line (especially towards the coast).

Yeah I've always been a bit puzzled by it, but ultimately, I just don't think they have the resources to dedicate much too long-range forecasting, plus it's supplemented quite well within the private sector.

From my many years on the board (first joined I think in late 2006 or 2007) and a bit from school, what I've learned is forecasting is much more than just reading model output. Obviously forecast models are significant in the forecasting process, but forecasting goes beyond just reading model output. When someone is forecasting and analyzing models, they should be asking themselves questions in their head and coming to an understanding of what is going on within the model to generate that output. Does the evolution make sense? Is this a realistic solution? Are there any biases the model is known to have and are those biases being reflected here? You also want to fully assess a wide variety of data and output from all levels of the atmosphere. A lot of focus goes right into surface outputs (QPF, snow maps, precipitation totals, etc.) which I get because we live at the surface, but having a strong understanding of the upper-levels, the pattern in place, how the pieces are evolving and interacting will tell you more about what to expect at the surface than any surface product will. I also think having a strong background in the complex mathematical equations can help too. You also want to be looking for run-to-run consistency, model-to-model consistency, and recent model performance and having an understanding of this can help a forecaster confidence wise in which model to perhaps rely on more. Ultimately, it's all about experience and understanding of the models, their strengths, biases, and understanding the overall pattern.

Some forecast Just threw all strong EL Nino's together. Yes, strong EL Nino's have a tendency to be above-average in terms of temperatures across the northern-tier of the country, but there are strong EL Nino's which were colder. Can't just throw a bunch of years into a composite and call it a forecast or outlook.

Probably not much wind inland. Just gusty. Breezier along the shoreline with some isolated power outages

Where?

There is still a lot to resolve when it comes to what we can expect. I would think there is going to be a very sharp cutoff and gradient within the region. It's just a matter of where that gradient resides. There also appear to be two viable solutions 1. An all out rain/flooding event along/south of the Pike as the NAM suggests 2. A two part event where we get one round of heavy rain associated with warm front/strong warm air advection, which diminishes rapidly as the system occludes and then a second round as the decaying circulation passes nearby. Regardless, the weekend is going to be crap...cool, breezy, cloudy, rain but it's a question of just how crappy and whether we have significant flooding concerns. East facing slopes of the southern Berkshires into the Litchfield Hills could be a secondary max area for upslope enhanced totals. But if we get fronto aligned just north of Long Island across southern Connecticut and southern Rhode Island I'm afraid flooding could be quite significant.

let's keep it that way heading into winter

seems like a nasty angle too for coastal NC potentially. Good thing it's not a significantly stronger storm.

going to be some decent winds right up along the coast for sure

TS warnings up to Delaware

agreed

yeah coastal areas are going to be on the windy side for sure Saturday and it should be pretty breezy just inland too. I wonder if there is an outside shot at some hurricane-force gusts (say 75-80) along parts of coastal SC/NC. Want to see what the GFS has but the NAM develops some 80+ knot winds at 925...most likely remaining over the open waters. If I lived right along the coast or in emergency response it's something I would definitely want to keep in the back of my mind.

Also, I wouldn't go about this as a typical tropical system. For this system, it's important to understand the dynamical forces and processes behind the development of the low pressure and strengthening of the low pressure. This is going to be a near textbook definition of dynamics at work these next few days.

I'm wondering if southern Connecticut through southern Rhode Island might get smacked pretty hard with rain and flooding. Wouldn't be surprised to see fronto setup here. We've seen some similar instances of this over the past several years.

Gotta wonder how far north the heavy rain will really get. That ridging is pretty damn strong. Also being enhanced by that longwave trough digging into the PAC NW.

Since I do trash on the snow maps I'll say it also irritates me when people just run to hodographs, supercell composite parameter, and significant tornado parameter to justify a potential tornado outbreak.

Even if the duration of the rain ends up being on the short side of the spectrum, the rainfall rates are going to be intense. Lots of rain will fall in a very short amount of time.

One thing looking at (and on all models) is the strengthening low-level jet. Pretty robust easterly flow overspreading southern New England with 850-700mb warm front progressing north within the region. There is going to be a ton of moisture being thrown in our direction. We have the high to the north so there is potential this system could become suppressed. I think we either get slammed with rain or get lucky...don't think there is an in between. Would have to check into tides but I would also think coastal flooding could be a concern as well.

That would be a boatload of rain on the NAM. I guess you can hope for occlusion to eventually shut the system down but many ingredients in place for us to get smoked.

check out the evolution of the ULJ. That's some solid venting and ulvl divergence going on. Nice phasing too with the shortwave digging southeast across Canada

That area may last about as long as Aaron Rodgers did in game 1

I like my eggs scrambled

This rain is insane