weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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It is a bit of a concern, but guidance does have a brief period where dews surge out ahead of the storms...something to really watch. If that does happen and this all times with the CAA/steepening lapse rate in the mid-levels there could be some locally nasty storms this afternoon.
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Hodographs certainly not bad looking this afternoon
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Thinking probably BDL may be better option.
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Still unsure of what I want to do today. Maybe extreme northern Fairfield cty on NY border
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Going to target Sharon or Salisbury, CT tomorrow. Potentially even Kent or Sherman
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Yeah I don't see lapse rates as a killer for tomorrow. Steep mlvl lapse rates are important when it comes to the potential for a widespread outbreak and/or significant severe but neither of these are really on the table for tomorrow regardless.
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Both speed and directional shear is pretty impressive in the lowest few km. I guess maybe the higher LCL's could be a challenge.
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yeah right Not going to count on that happening, but this setup I think can surprise if we can destabilize enough. Pretty intrigued with bulk shear and degree of directional shear going on.
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I am wondering though if farther south (or southwest) into CT would be better...as in better chance for stronger storms given dews should be higher.
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Actually BDL may not be a bad spot tomorrow, especially view wise.
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Yeah was waiting for it.
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MARGINAL RISK TOMORROW!!!!!!!! WOOOO WOOOOOO WOOOOO FOOKING HOOO!!!!!! LET’S GO!!!
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Maybe CT (southern) has best chance for stronger storms tomorrow.
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Wednesday continuing to look quite interesting!
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This also highlights parts of NE MA tomorrow. Dry air might be too much to overcome but decent overlap of ingredients for something to work with if it can form
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hmm this targets a bit farther southeast then I was thinking. But at least the NAM anyways develops the strongest CAPE across SNE. Shear profiles are impressive with some good turning across the region too.
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Albany area could be good Wednesday maybe
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ehhh I was hoping there would be some room for some storms in SE NH or NE MA tomorrow but going to be too dry aloft I think. Though models do peg some QPF...but certainly enough that can validate chasing. THE SHIT SHOW CONTINUES
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Getting tingly for Wednesday
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Going to cancel going to PA tomorrow. I wonder if there could be some strong storms early Tuesday PM across SE NH
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It would be more like $40. I have a near full tan of gas and get just under 40 mpg on highway but leaning against going towards Scranton tomorrow. Maybe go towards southern CT during the evening and try to get some lightning with stuff late evening
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I will be assessing models in my bathroom with my head in the toilet. If I'm not happy with what I see I will continuously flush until my scrawny, slender, fragile body is sucked into the pipes of hell.
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I could see an upgrade to a slight risk across parts of the mid-Atlantic north into southeastern PA and southwestern NJ. Not sure though this would be worth driving 5-6 hours for. Scranton is doable (a bit under 4 hours). Actually, I'm wondering if we could see some nocturnal elevated convection move through here late evening/overnight, especially southern Connecticut. that would be fun. Wednesday has some supercell potential.
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Wednesday could certainly be a bit interesting
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Not totally surprised. biggest question tomorrow is instability. Might be better farther south but with weaker dynamics. Leaning towards going to Scranton in the morning
