weatherwiz

Oh well...hopefully if we can flip to a more hot/humid pattern we'll get some better chances.

unreal...what an absolutely terrible decision. Outside of what I mentioned earlier about becoming lazy, some of the higher end (though localized) events we have had (6/1/2011, 05/15/2018, 08/27/2020) have certainly changed my perspective about storms around here. Sometimes it's really hard to get excited without seeing an EML in place or steep lapse rates with a cold pool.

Getting lazy with this stuff...falling into a trap. Used to spend time fully assessing synoptics, instability, shear, soundings, etc then using simulated radars as a guidance tool...but lately it's become just running to simulated radars and using other stuff secondary.

The HRRR overnight started to trend like crap but we should have just gone. I also thought when looking at radar much earlier the initial activity may have held things back but it really strengthened. But we'll see what happens...I think the atmosphere is more stable once you near Trenton anyways so this stuff may come down quickly. But should have just gone anyways.

and a tornado warning in SE PA. Hit me with a spiked bat like Glenn in the Walking Dead. Someone Neagen me

If you're not melting, you're not happy. That's the new motto of summer

Didn't go to NJ...screw this and screw this pathetic summer. The heat signal will probably be fake and we'll probably fine a way to trough. But I hope to hell this heat verifies...I hope it gets so hot and so humid that EVERYONE melts when installing. I hope it's so freaking uncomfortable everyone complains.

The last 3 cycles of the hrrr ughh

Going to go to Winslow, NJ tomorrow. Going from New Britain and not Springfield so that takes off some travel time.

weird how that watch box states that...must be something local office did. Watch states hail up to 5'' in diameter.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 307 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western, southern and central Oklahoma and the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle The eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 5 inches in diameter expected Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely SUMMARY...Intense supercell development is expected this afternoon from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas, and storms will spread eastward through late evening. The initial, more discrete supercells will be capable of producing giant hail (4-5 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes. Upscale growth into a cluster or two is possible this evening, with an increasing threat for intense outflow winds of 80-90 mph. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles east northeast of Guymon OK to 40 miles southeast of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

90/80 I would kill for that here. 5,000 MLCAPE with LI's around -13

Thinking about going to Trenton tomorrow to chase

I wonder if I give myself a swirly and have my friend and girlfriend rapidly flip the bathroom switch if it will be like simulating a thunderstorm

Hopefully this new stuff popping gets some lightning.

Sleeping with head on toilet

Got back to Springfield and a cute rumbler popped up.

Playing peek-a-boo with a shelf cloud I think

Yes

Decent flux of lightning headed my way!!!

Looks like some weak rotation with cell over Mount Kisco

Agreed, if you recall that fall event a few years back where Long Island had several TOR's I think that was a critical factor in that event. Dews spiked just prior to the convection arriving which would have resulted in rapidly lowering LCL's and a big instability spike which would have also enhanced updraft speed/strength.

Quite a bit of 3km CAPE being modeled

Going to get to BDL around 12:27 or so and that will give us time to shoot west if we want too.