weatherwiz

Some just set themselves up for failure with how they're evaluating and interpreting long-range guidance. An OP solution showing a 982mb passing over the benchmark does not mean there is a credible storm threat. A 384 hour snowfall map showing 30-40'' of snow does not mean there are credible storm threats. All anyone should be looking at in the long-range is how the pattern is evolving. Some see the GFS show a blizzard at D12 and it's "let the tracking begin".

I'm hoping to spend more time digging into the MJO. I'm pretty happy with the progression I've made this past year with digging into seasonal forecasting but one area I haven't had the opportunity to dig into yet is the MJO. I was starting to question myself a few weeks ago (and then got COVID so last week was a drag just to work) about how I thought tropical forcing west of the dateline was good for us (that's what my composites seemed to elicit) but if this is where MJO phases are warmer for us then something must be off with what I was doing.

Nope and that's what I'm hold out hope on. Ultimately, I don't think we really need the MJO to get into more favorable phases. I would probably rather the MJO just kind of peter out all together and become a weak signal. But seeing how right now much is relied on tropical forcing...it's really anyone's guess on how everything progresses during the second half of the month. Models still struggle mightily with MJO waves/tropical forcing. If we can get these changes to start showing face on short-term guidance (inside 72 hours) we may have something.

As optimistic as I am about January and February, if this becomes a situation where we have to rely on the MJO to get into more favorable phases and become fixated there for a bit...I'm going to start to worry some.

Maybe I'm delirious because I'm pretty sick and these Mucinex extra strength are overpowering me but reading through this thread today at points I've started to think, "well crap maybe winter is cooked". Then I realize... IT'S DECEMBER 2

Gotcha, thanks. Thought the correlation strengthened as winter progressed.

1) The structure and placement of the blocking in the Arctic isn't very favorable for loading cold into the NE. 2) The correlation between AO/NAO and NE temperatures is much stronger moving towards January and for February than it is November into December.

Glad to hear!

How is the -PDO not encouraging? -PDO/EL Nino combo's can be fine. Below are a list of winters which featured a -PDO during an EL Nino. Certainly, you can see one of the biggest differentiators in the hemispheric pattern is tied into whether blocking develops and how prominent blocking can become.

I think this is the longest I've ever been sick outside of like 2015 when I had a sinus infection and I was sick for like a month...but that's because I didn't realize it was a sinus infection and left it untreated. When I had covid the first time I was sick for like a day-and-a-half. Both my girlfriend and I have been sick since Monday. I really hope we can try and reschedule this. Maybe shoot for the spring?

My girlfriend and I are still quite sick so it’s definitely a no go .

I'm thinking a strip of 10-16'' possible where the heaviest banding occurs and confidence seems to be increasing such a band will materialize. Certainly some support for 2''+ per hour rates based on some of the bufkit data.

this could be a fun little "surprise" for some. Might be a forecasting nightmare though for areas borderline. Some of those borderline locations end up a smidge colder and its easily close to several inches given the rates.

Looks like the 18z NAM coming onboard for Sun into Mon too

Seems like the Euro gets several inches for PWM

Euro seems to look good up north. Looks like a heafy band would materialize

GFS bufkit is pretty hefty thumping for PWM for a period.

It's certainly cutting it close. Some minor ticks in each direction on the GFS would be pretty huge in terms of result. If the Euro can remain steadfast at 12z that may be enough to increase the excitement level a bit, but want to at least see these subtle trends through 0z tonight/12z tomorrow.

Yeah looking at the GFS I think PWM would probably start as rain but verbatim would probably flip over to snow, especially with heavier rates.

That would actually probably be pretty nice for interior SW CT

there looks to be a very weak CAD signal...weak enough to where the models may be understating how cold it may be. I could see the models being 2-3F too warm at the sfc.

There is definitely room to get things a bit cooler for areas borderline.

certainly looking fun on the 12z gfs for up north Sunday into Monday. could be a decent band of heavy snow that materializes.

I think the only way we get screwed this winter, is if we get intense blocking which results in a suppressed pattern and neither of us are expecting blocking to be that extreme. I don't think we get screwed because of cutters or b/c we get flooded with mild PAC air.

Frustration is fine and this place is a great place to let off frustration because it's not like we can do it in public Can do it in front of family/friends but they'll just give s funny looks. The problem is when the frustration starts to intertwine and interfere with the discussion. If someone is providing insight and thoughts into how things may evolve moving forward (backed with science) and it's a barrage of posts where the frustration dilutes the discussion then it becomes not fun anymore.