weatherwiz

Actually probably even a larger area then that. Maybe most of Vermont to south of Albany and maybe into western MA

Could be some tornado potential across upstate NY through northern VT tomorrow afternoon and early evening.

If this keeps up it's going to be a volatile winter without a doubt. I'm not ready to write off winter just because we may be headed towards strong Nino. Sure the odds aren't great when dealing with a stronger event, but there have been strong Ninos to produce and it's important to understand the mechanisms for that.

Holy smokes

ehhh it really goes much deeper then that. Not all strong EL Nino's are warm winter. We've had some colder than average winter's. Here is a composite of temperature anomalies for weak, moderate, and strong EL Nino winters. ENSO clearly has a strong influence, but there is so much more to it then just ENSO phase and strength. You can see the variation which exists for each season of the same strength magnitude. Lots get discussed too about structure of the ENSO event and where tropical forcing is positioned, but even with those mixed in the signals aren't entirely clear cut. There are so many other factors and influences. As I've done composites on an event-by-event basis instead of just grouping together a bunch of years with similar strength or structure it becomes more evident there are many wild cards and ultimately there is always a different feature which is going to be the driver or a key contributor. Weak: Moderate: Strong Super-strong:

Haven't checked in here in a bit but I had a hunch I would see some posts about the PDO. It will be interesting to see what role the PDO plays moving into winter. While there is a correlation between ENSO/PDO phase, we're well into a negative PDO regime and the overall list of EL Nino's coincident with -PDO is relatively short (compared to the EL Nino dataset). Below is a list of -PDO winters coincident with EL Nino (note: this list only includes years where PDO was obviously negative) and EL Nino strength 1911-1912 (moderate EL Nino) 1914-1915 (borderline weak/moderate EL Nino) 1919-1920 (weak EL Nino) 1923-1924 (borderline weak/moderate EL Nino) 1951-1952 (moderate EL Nino) 1953-1954 (weak EL Nino) 1965-1966 (Super-strong EL Nino) 1968-1969 (moderate EL Nino) 1972-1973 (Super-strong EL Nino) 2004-2005 (weak EL Nino) 2006-2007 (weak EL Nino) 2018-2019 (weak EL Nino)

I was just looking at SSTA's. This is pretty mind boggling. Was going to post something in the ENSO/winter thread but the PDO is pretty insane. I think the june PDO value was the lowest June value on record

Yeah this weekend is not going to be very pleasant overall from a dry weather perspective. We're pretty much influenced by the RFQ of a strong ulvl jet and we'll see numerous pieces of shortwave energy rotating through. There is another surge of very high PWATS too Saturday night.

Think Saturday also has pop up showers and storms region wide within the warm sector. Thursday night and Friday I think is pretty concerning with rain/flooding potential. Saturday night a bit concerning too as next system approaches.

Maybe it will trace back to Seattle and its a product of the smoke from the lasers hi by Vlad Jr...the dude probably killed a kid.

There is some intriguing severe potential Friday, but I think this is turning into a pretty serious flood concern.

There is no better feeling in the word then opening the door and being blasted by high heat and high humidity. It's like a mixture of mint mouthwash and orange scented face wash just splashing you in the face. Sometimes it's actually fun being in a heavily A/C'd building because this feeling is intensified 100x more.

May have to watch that one over the next 20 min or so. Has a not so bad looking mid-level meso.

Luckily tomorrow and Wednesday are dry, but man...Wednesday night - Friday night could be another dire situation for Vermont (and basically right along the entire CT River). Looks like the front becomes parallel to the upper-level flow with perhaps multiple weak waves along it.

Wow looks like that would be second highest on record

Dew points Thursday could be pretty damn high if we get dew point pooling which is quite possible. Could see 74-77 dews

Dews drop tonight into early tomorrow morning but look to rebound during the afternoon.

Severe potential pretty low today IMO except maybe a rogue cell or two. Sun not much of a factor with this...instability is there due the high dews/theta-e air (granted mostly water loaded) but shear is really not much. Deal is there is plenty of buoyance to lift parcels, but just not enough forcing/dynamics to generate deep convection. Best convection right now near Syracuse where they are on the nose of some steeper mid-level lapse rates and dry slot just behind the front.

If some of that stronger instability to the south was able to get into eastern sections, that developing line could have been more interesting. Shear isn't tremendous, but 0-1km helicity values are around 100 m2s2. LCL's are about 500m so it wouldn't take much to produce a quick spin-up

You can use them as logs and float back home

Severe potential is quite low today. Maybe a rogue strong/severe cell. Was thinking perhaps southern New Hampshire into northern Worcester county had the best shot, but looks like models back off a bit on a stronger llvl jet.

There will be so much flooding tomorrow that there may be waterspouts…over land

Anyone who gets smoke today will be screwed tomorrow.

In terms of severe potential the greatest potential may be southern New Hampshire into northern Worcester County (at least per the NAM). NAM really strengthens the llvl jet there through the morning. Anyways though, flooding is certainly a higher risk then severe weather is.

Haven’t looked at models since Friday and wasn’t looking in depth at a local level. Might be a better threat for strong storms central/northern New England though $13 for a 30oz