weatherwiz

yeah that has to be down...that is a pretty solid spin in the llvls of that storm

TOR in NJ...looks decent too. Add another to their list this year?

I'm inclined to agree with this.

Just a tad overmixed

Then we fail at simulating

GFS is interesting Saturday. Monday interesting too but looks more south and west for best potential.

Everyone gets caught up in simulations and AI

there's probably a plan to name every single swirl that arises

we'll probably get the cane up here then

Your best chance of seeing a Cane down in Florida is September 29th when the Carolina Hurricanes play split squad games at the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning.

I gained one pound since last summer!

I had to put the heat on in the car this morning

Holy shit that’s terrible

Yeah I’m thinking heavy rain and flooding is by far the biggest concern here. I don’t even think there is much thunder really. Those lapse rates are about as terrible as you can get. Obviously if southern areas can tap into the higher theta-e air it’s a different story with low potential

Severe potential is all about how much llvl CAPE can materialize which the best bet will be in the true warm sector. It likely will have to be pretty sufficient too as shear is going to be quite strong. So if there isn’t enough instability any rotation will be pretty meh and updrafts will be ripped apart easily. LCL’s should be super low which helps

The heat/humidity has been quite relentless down that way. I think yesterday at 8 AM MIA had a HI close to 100

I’d love 95-100…I’d love even more 95-100 with dews in the 70’s. But if 95-100 can’t happen keep the dews in the 70’s. Sweat for all

I can envision a few days of 85/74 in late October with a massive front delivering a tree toppling derecho and then 5 days later a 12-18” heavy, wet snow event taking down the rest of the trees.

Gotcha, ehh I don’t like using the term “hottest” on record in this situation. I think that just drives hype. Like Scott said, much of the above-average warmth in July was the result of warm minimum temperatures, which of course, was a product of the prolonged periods higher dewpoints.

I don't think the OP was referencing only New England with that statement (or hope not anyways). I think the statement referenced the intense heat in the deep South and the high dews across the eastern third of the country.

Wow that's quite impressive for sure. The atmosphere is certainly going to be juiced. We're looking at PWAT values once again between 1.70-2.00'' so it isn't going to take much to ring out the atmosphere. We've all seen first hand what even "tiny showers" produce in terms of rainfall rates in this type of airmass.

I don't think it's a totally outlandish solution. That trough is continuing to amplify and interacts with the shortwave energy associated with that convection. Kind of has a fall/winter feel to it with the dynamics and interactions...idk

Seems like a good bet, especially if there is a great deal of consistency with the 12z guidance. This could be quite bad though if some of these scenarios verify. Luckily this should be more on the progressive side, but this is a situation where 2-3'' of rain could fall within a short amount of time. Sometimes its not about the rainfall totals, but how much is falling within a certain duration. I could see a narrow area though of 4-6''+ depending on how this materializes.

Yeah I don't think we see the true warm sector get very far north at all. But the widespread rain threat is very real given dynamics and strong upper-level divergence.

Tomorrow is going to be quite interesting. Biggest challenge is going to be where that sfc low develops and tracks which is going to be heavily influenced by the Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley convection. I would think the most favorable track for this would be just south of southern New England, but is it across Long Island or just south of Long Island? In terms of any severe weather potential, this track is key because if the track is across Long Island, the true warm sector and triple point will likely scoot across southern Connecticut, Long Island, Rhode Island, and Cape Cod. There would be potential for some brief tornadoes. If the track is south of Long Island, severe potential is nada (except maybe Nantucket and the Vineyard). Regardless, I think we're in line for some flash flooding rainfall. upper-level dynamics are pretty strong and we look to be in a very favored position for enhanced upper-level divergence. Looks like H7 warm front pushes well into the region which will aid in lift as well. In addition, we'll have the nose of a strong low-level jet and a very moist airmass.