weatherwiz

I'm wondering if I made a terrible mistake comparing variables to their respective climatology periods, especially with sea-surface temperatures. Per PDO dataset, the PDO phase was negative during ASON of 1921 (averaged value = -1.48). However, here are the SSTA's for that period using a climo period of 1891-1920. Clearly, the PDO signal is very weak. Well I was doing some reading and I believe the current version of the PDO still uses a base climatology of 1971-2000. So here is the SSTA's compared to 1971-2000 Clearly this exhibits a negative PDO look. Now when dealing with these older years reliability of the data needs to be considered and the data set you use (HADISST, COBE, NOAA ERSST, etc). But the discrepancies above yield a significant question; How do you go about conducting analysis on these earlier years? I mean I suppose there is no right away. I mean if comparing to it's respective climo period, the PDO signal is very weak, but if comparing to a different period, maybe that yields a stronger signal. But the truth of the matter is you can't (I don't think compare a year to a set of years which hasn't happened yet. But it is very possible too that the data from that period is very scarce so would it be better to compare to a more recent period? Reading through literature there are questions regarding the reliability of the data from the 1800's to even like 1940. AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

We use Ac in the bedroom at night. Bedroom is super warm. I don't mind it cold as long as I can wrap myself up. I usually end up looking like a caterpillar getting ready to become a butterfly. One of these days I expect to wake up as a butterfly and flutter around the house

Man next week is going to be a giant slap in the face compared to this week. I guess I'm fine with 50's as long as we can keep predominately sunny skies. Really dreading the days we'll be getting where its in the 40's and 50's with clouds and precip around, especially as the days shorten.

It’s so beautiful outside. A part of it is depressing in a way knowing this is the warmest day well for a while.

GFS looking west. Could be some strong winds for far Cape and coastal Maine though nothing out of this world.

Well yes, but how many times does that actually happen? Events have to be separated and categorized. You have to have one category designated to your classic, textbook setups and events and one category that isn't classic or textbook. When you have your classic, textbook setups you know what's going to happen...and that is true for anything (winter, severe, tropical). However, how many times do we actually get those classic, textbook setups? Not very often. So analyzing the non-textbook setups and trying to find as many different discriminators as possible and determining which of those discriminators holds significant weight (which is going to differ by setup) can be quite telling. It's absolutely very tedious work, but IMO understanding this would significantly improve forecasting at least in the medium-range (3-6 days out).

At some point in the upcoming months (though this will probably have to be more of a spring project) I want to really dig into SST's off the East Coast during the winter months and compare SSTA's with seasonal snowfall totals and distribution along with storm track. These last few winters...or maybe several it seems anytime we get any sort of coastal two things happen: 1. It tracks so close to the coast we get destroyed with milder air 2. Rapid cyclogenesis occurs so early and close enough to the coast that we get flooded with milder air well ahead of the system. I would really love to see hard data on SSTA's during snowier vs. least snowier winters with a focus on storm track. The answer I'm sure is pretty obvious but actually seeing the results is a different ball game.

Would have to dig deeper but my guess is because this closes off and occludes well west. If dynamics and synoptics weren't as impressive I don't think we would be seeing QPF totals this extreme even across western sections. Of course there is likely some enhancement from Philippe too.

eh I don't see this becoming progressive...not with that ulvl evolution

Yeah if this synoptic look verifies there is going to be big problems. There should also be more in the way of convection and convective elements involved as well which would only add to the issues.

Yeah Saturday could be pretty ugly. These dynamics are quite impressive with a deep southerly flow in the mid/upper levels check out the PWAT anomalies...woozers

so I've been working quite a bit on this the past week. Essentially, and this goes to an earlier post I made (either in this thread or the winter ENSO thread) but I'm an idiot. Issue is I make these composites and put into MS Paint and print them out and they're super small. When I was assessing the northern PAC SST structure I was focusing on the wrong area. I came to this conclusion when I was looking at ASON SSTA's for 1906. The raw number was fairly positive but my interpretation was a -PDO. My focus on SST structure in the north Pacific had been too far south

Yup 70's to around 80 won't be seen again until maybe February

Could be potential for a tornado or two Saturday, especially towards the coast.

Yeah moving forward you can't compare this week to anything. Anything is going to be cooler compared to this, even an above-average pattern. Have to compare to climo essentially.

Definitely going to get cooler with the upcoming pattern, though I wouldn't be surprised if we see models moderate a bit as we get closer.

What the hell is that?

Anyone know what these things are? They’re biting me and the bites look like mosquito bites

This is by far and away one of the best days of the year. Today is the definition of perfection. Will be sitting outside drinking some beers watching the pats game.

maybe a little bit of subsidence going on?

Me either...they're breading grounds for spiders, centipedes, millipedes, and anything else with too many legs.

I can't believe the rainfall totals on the HRRR. I thought perhaps the HRRR would back off some at 18z but nope. Certainly quite a bit of convective enhancement going on across a narrow swath. Looks like a decent little instability axis with some decent elevated CAPE.

NAM GFS spits out about an inch of precip at BDL while GFS is a few tenths of an inch

Only thing that could keep temps back Tuesday is we should develop quite a bit of fair cumulus clouds given steep lapse rates and pretty decent instability (especially for Oct. standards). Should have enough moisture present as well.

Don't forget those are 2m temperatures, it can be colder at the surface.