weatherwiz

Great to see some decent mlvl lapse rates for once

Just did BOS ASOS

BOS can't be anymore then 83 or 84.

I do wish it was going to be super humid Saturday for Brew at the Zoo. I wouldn't mind getting heat sick from drinking in the humidity. It's special...part of summer.

Tomorrow looks like an Albany special

Weeks as in the overall theme will be humid weather. Short breaks with any frontal passages.

I would think dews increase through the day Thursday. We get that mid-week shot of drier air but Thursday is what starts the theme of higher humidity as the dominant weather type for the following few weeks (with some brief breaks depending on what happens with any fronts).

Certainly going to be dependent on fronts and there position. But the Euro seems vastly different then the GFS Thursday. I really can't see dews that low. Check out dews across the country on the euro and especially eastern third of the country...seems odd.

I wonder if there could be a warm front straddling supercell tomorrow.

I would think dews will be higher than that, especially Thursday

The warmest days will probably be mid-to-upper 80's. But nothing as of now really screaming at anything like widespread 90+.

Stops there because after that period it's a predominately humid and at times, very humid, pattern.

After a bit of a break this weekend and again mid-week...we are soaring into a high dewpoint pattern. Can look at and fantasize over pretty blues on H5 charts all you want but the glaring trend the past several days is...good luck getting fronts to blow through at the sfc during the second half of the month. Enjoy weakening fronts.

It's very messy. Probably some hydro issues as well.

hmmm good catch there. Makes a ton of sense. Much closer to the better forcing and you should have a nice instability axis on the nose of the higher theta-e air and nose of strengthening LLJ.

Gotcha

I don't see how sun angle has factored into anything this week.

HRRR is most robust with convection tomorrow which means one of two things: 1) It is totally out to lunch 2) It is on to something and other guidance will play catch up I am slightly leaning towards #2. One big plus here is mid-level lapse rates are pretty solid for these parts (between 6.5-7 C/KM but roughly closer to 6.5 than 7). Despite surface temperatures mainly in the upper 70's, dewpoints into the 60's should contribute to 1,000-1,500 J/KG of MLCAPE. Shear isn't tremendous, but it's sufficient to help with updraft organization and latest guidance increases wind fields during the afternoon. In terms of forcing, the best overall forcing is well north and as stated earlier, height falls are extremely minimal and may even be slightly rising. This alone would likely reduce the aerial coverage of convective activity, but smaller-scale phenomena could locally enhance forcing. In this scenario, we could see a few small clusters or line segments evolve. What does develop should have ample ingredients to work with to produce hail and some damaging wind gusts. Could see some fairly decent mlvl mesos tomorrow. Again...this is focused on western sections.

Could see some nasty storms into Berkshire County and northwest Connecticut early tomorrow evening. A more linear storm mode may negate this somewhat, but could see some large hail. Lapse rates are actually pretty decent tomorrow and while height falls look meh, some guidance strengthens the wind fields across the region tomorrow. Timing pretty unfavorable for eastern areas.

Bingo.

I totally get it. I've gotten some messages here and there too or at least comments on posts. Very nice kid and it seems like he's been through alot personally (but I mean who hasn't?) and not sure if that factors into things. Certainly quite smart, but gives off the arrogant "I know everything" vibes. It's not even fun having a discussion with people like that because it just turns into a "you're wrong blah blah".

yup LOL

I might have an idea of who you're referring too

I love this story. That makes a whole world of sense. I think it's too easy to get caught up in numbers. Numbers aren't really going to tell a story, especially when dealing with some of the index measures like ONI which are smoothed and averaged over a longer period of time. Having an understanding and ability to assess the atmosphere like your coworker did will give you more clues then just about anything else.

Going to Brew at the Zoo Saturday in Forest Park. 22 different breweries will have beer and there are 5 food trucks. Get to drink beer and see animals. Weather looks great too. Though I wish dews were in the 60's or lower 70's. Yeah that's no good when drinking alcohol...blah blah blah.