weatherwiz

We'll probably finally get our ridging come January.

Would love to have gone haha

Not so sure about that

I don't think a few strong/severe storms can be ruled out tomorrow night. That's a pretty solid surge of high theta-e air with a pretty impressive llvl jet and strong sfc low passing to our northwest. Should be some severe potential Tuesday, though looks pretty messy. Perhaps better moving towards New Hampshire and Maine?

Maybe those that like lower dews are the ones full of shit

Yeah that’s what I’m thinking. Just went into the 3 hour obs. Went from like 64 to 68 randomly lol then down to 60 haha

I always forget how delayed the obs can be. Now it shows the 60. Booooo

I just checked on NWS didn’t look at regional obs.

68 dew at CEF! May wear shorts to the Brew at the Zoo. Debating on jeans or shorts.

Yup great call on that.

Wasn’t July 3, 1997 predominately cloudy too?

I don’t think there is a whole heck of a lot of forcing. Really was better north and west.

Guidance yesterday and overnight was looking pretty decent but the trends today have been pretty meh.

Best chance for anything really is going to be western Mass and northwest CT and then across southern VT/NH and maybe into northeast MA. HRRR has really backed off the last several runs.

Looks like maybe a TDS with nROT values up around 0.80 which is pretty solid for these parts

Nice core

ha just got tornado warned

Nice looking supercell northwest of Edmeston, NY.

For weak llvl winds these clouds seem to be moving rather quickly.

Luckily too setups like today aren't highly dependent on sfc heating and large CAPE. 850 temps today are around like +12C and 925mb temps like +16C? So with this we were always limited into how warm the surface could get today anyways. Mid 70's temps with near mid 60's dews under 6.5 C/KM 700-500 lapse rates is more than enough to provide enough instability to fuel thunderstorms. 30-35 knots of 6km shear with effective bulk shear magnitudes 30-35 knots is more than sufficient for updraft organization. Nothing obviously screaming widespread severe weather but this is more than sufficient for some scattered severe reports.

Doesn't the text in the graphic seem a bit contradictory than the text of the discussion? Mentions isolated wind gusts 45-60 but then says at least widely scattered wind damage.

Looks like a Watch coming soon!!!!

There is definitely a quite a bit of shear. Check out satellite.

Despite the cloud we're actually destabilizing fairly well thanks to the steep lapse rates and increasing dewpoints. Hell, 2-6km lapse rates are 7-7.5 C/KM which I think is about as good as any setup we have had this summer. I don't think we'll see much in the way of breaks though.

We have not. Nothing that I can recall anyways.