weatherwiz

Instability is there, shear is pretty bad to help sustain updrafts.

Thunder...either from the cell to the northeast near Belchertown or to my southeast or Hampden or even to my west...I'm a cell sandwich AGAIN FOOK THIS.

It's kind of funny (though not really) checking MOS out West...GFS is crazy high, NAM is crazy low, and then NBM just gives you somewhere in between

Do you have a YouTube?

I would love to experience a northern Plains blizzard. Or a historic LES. I was reading a few months back that back in 2020 I think it was, the Wyoming DOT had proposed to completely shift I-80 north between Cheyenne and Rawlins (I think it was). That stretch is considered one of the most dangerous in terms of weather impact. it will routinely get closed during winter storms because there is hardly any population between the two and the risk of becoming stranded is very high. So to save lives and not have to risk sending rescue crews, they’ll just close the highway. This can even happen during sunny weather when they get super strong winds.

I’m looking beyond just totals and even beyond the high elevations within the West. Blizzards that’s impact the north-central Plains and upper-Midwest can be nearly paralyzing. They routinely get storms with 50-70 mph wind gusts and true blizzard conditions. Major stretches of interstate will be closed b/c conditions aerial too dangerous for plow operators. They’ll have stretches of highways closed for multiple days.

Our weather events overall are pretty “tame” overall compared to most of the country. This includes our winter storms too.

May catch fire tonight with lightning strikes

must be...not working for me either

Looks like K-Index is well into the 30's.

Thunder!!! I'm a cell sandwich right now. Cell to my west and cell to my southeast. Anyone want to throw some ketchup on me

and now the suns out

Just went from nothing to a crazy downpour in less a second.

Yeah early crap like this can certainly screw up things later on...we know that very well The key is going to be able to remove any CIN in the wake of this activity. Thankfully the airmass is pretty moist so it won't take much in the way of breaks of sun to make this happen. Have to watch how the lapse rates recover too...this activity will weaken them some, but models do increase them a bit later this afternoon. Shear increases as well. There is a very diffuse boundary though down your way with theta-e ridge in place so I would think there will be at least some isolated re-development this afternoon.

Agreed. Always a bit skeptical with those but there does seem to be support for that idea.

We're really in a crap spot with this system. Removed from the better dynamics and forcing and like you said...just too much junk around. A bit intrigued with tonight though with the strengthening LLJ and a little plume of steep lapse rates. IMO for tomorrow though, the marginal risk should be removed or even shifted much farther west. Looks like a warm bubble aloft and forcing seems quite weak tomorrow.

Always down for one of those.

yup... but tonight though could be pretty interesting. Could see some nasty storms if that cluster verifies tonight.

Looks like we may have some capping issues tomorrow

Pretty much Unless you're lucky enough to be one of the hits and not misses

The HRRR does have a cluster moving SW to NE across the region overnight. Could be some truth to that. Nose of nocturnal increase of the LLJ and a bit of a theta-e ridge over the region.

Majority of activity is going to be to our west and southwest, but we'll see hit-and-miss storms around today. Flash flooding could be a bit of an issue given weak shear and slow movement of storms. Strongest storms could produce some localized damaging wind gusts. Could see some nasty stuff down across SE PA/NJ/DE later on.

HRRR not impressed with tomorrow. Has a batch of early action center/northern sections and nothing south. Keeps everything west.

Going to happen Tuesday too…except they be rotating

I hate the casino