weatherwiz

I also have my computer chair outside which is leather so when I stand up everything just sticks to me and I have to peel. There really is nothing better than this.

I’ve been sitting outside since 9:45-10:00. Took my SNES outside and have been working on ENSO stuff. Sucks my tent broke (well something pissed me off) but we have an overhang which connects house to garage

I have to work tomorrow too so can't chase So just have to hope something happens locally.

@ORH_wxman when looking at the PDO, what would you say is the best way of classifying a true positive vs. true negative episode and trying to classify a stronger vs. weaker event? I know a lot of folks use the raw numbers, but as has been discussed before using raw numbers alone can be extremely misleading. I'm thinking of doing something like a true positive (negative) (and stronger episode) is when you have higher(lower) anomalies both within the western PAC and off the west coast. If there is an episode where only one of these conditions are met, it's considered a "weaker episode. For example, if we look at 1902-1903 the raw PDO numbers are as follows for the following months: August: 1.81 September: 0.89 October: 1.11 November: 0.74 The ASON average comes out to be 1.14 Looking at that alone you would think that's a pretty solid +PDO, but the SSTAs I think tell a different story. I would not necessarily classify this as a +PDO as you're really lacking the warmer waters off the western United States coast and it would seem to be the PDO number is being inflated by the anomalously cool waters in the western Pacific. Rolling into the DJFM period, the values are December: 0.44 January: -0.04 February: 0.10 March: -0.19 DJFM: 0.08 This is certainly more reflective of a nearly neutral PDO (or very weakly positive) which the SSTA configuration would merely reflect:

LCLs tomorrow are going to be quite low. Theta-e values tomorrow are going to be extremely high so llvl CAPE is going to be pretty abundant. Really won't take much to generate a quick spin-up tomorrow. But yeah flood threat is a high concern. Rainfall rates are going to be pretty insane.

Still a quite a bit of MLCIN across the region, though eroding off to the west.

Well getting into some clearing now so we'll see what happens. Wouldn't be surprised too if there is subsidence in the wake of this MCS (which would help getting some heating). HRRR insists in at least some widely scattered stuff. Mesoanalysis does indicate we remove CIN now relatively quickly through the afternoon. Widespread re-development is off the table, but could certainly see some isolated strong storms later on. DCAPE looks to skyrocket later with really good hail CAPE so some strong wind gusts and hail are possible if any convection becomes deep enough.

I think it's all largely filled in by now.

Lightning hit and lost internet briefly. Dog went wild too.

I agree. It's going to be tough I think. If we were going to push dews into the lower 70's we probably would have had a chance. The last few runs of the HRRR I think indicate differential heating boundaries may be a focal point for re-development later today.

wow you weren't kidding. Looks like that here now.

about to get hit good!!

Here's the 12z OKX sounding. Some good instability aloft. Definite boundary in the llvls. llvl shear is meh but pretty solid getting aloft. Going to be an interesting day. I wish Albany was doing launches

Yeah looks like they could be gusting 40-45 mph...assuming winds are mixing to the sfc. Would be a good proxy to gauge whether any of this convection is rooted more sfc or elevated.

That stuff in southwest Connecticut working with some good parameters. Between 1,000-1,500 MUCAPE and some pretty good shear. Sfc instability is weak, but man if any cells can become surface rooted could see some large hail (plenty of hail CAPE) and damaging wind gusts.

Also clouded up here real quick in Springfield.

It does look like there is quite of convective inhibition to overcome today but this giant MCS like convective cloud shield is going to make it difficult. I guess the good news is if we can get heating and lift the WF north we would erode CIN quickly, but does that happen? Wouldn't bet on it.

Really not sure what to expect today. Would anticipate at least scattered stuff (could be more widespread). Getting good heating in Springfield currently.

If HRRR is correct flash flooding will be a big concern with multiple rounds of training storms. Lots of lighting too with high MUCAPE. Damaging wind gusts with stronger storms for sure too

Gust front was fun!!! 40-45 mpg gusts I’d say

Holy shelf

Swinging on the swings watching the lightning!!!! Wooohooo woooohoooii woooiiii foooking hooooo

So much lightning!!! Found a dark field facing west

I’ll be waiting here in Springfield. Will be going to shopping plaza which has good view west (though it will be dark). Not a fan of chasing in the dark. I don’t particularly like driving in the dark anyways but once you get into western MA lots of trees along roads. Can get dangerous if there is damage. my friend and I were in Russell, MA in 2008 when they got big wind damage and barely saw a bunch of trees blocking the road in time.

After the winds probably in the Atlantic