weatherwiz

HRRR continuing to pound NE MA later on

Nice hook signature over Newington with weak rotation

Tough to say. Sometimes cells can interact and it can quickly induce rapid rotation. They have decent cores but nothing crazy noteworthy yet. Decent DCAPE and llvl lapse rates. 2-6km lapse rates though a bit on the weak side which may mitigate wind potential some and eep it more localized.

yeah have to watch closely if that strengthens any

Looks like a decent downburst over Deerfield. WOnder if any damage comes in

Really hoping that line intensifies as it moves east-northeast. Going to go under my overhang in a bit with the camcorder ready to go

Glad we don't live there. Don't need my severe day being mucked up

WATCH OUT!!!!!!

Watch possible Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211620Z - 211745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storm coverage will increase this afternoon, with some threat for damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...In the wake of a weakening convective band now moving across northern New England, showers have developed across parts of western CT/MA, with convection recently becoming sufficiently deep to support lightning across southwest CT. An increase in storm coverage is expected into this afternoon from southeast NY into parts of New England, as a jet maximum moves through the base of the base of the upper-level trough, and related large-scale ascent spreads over the region. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level environment will support continued destabilization this afternoon, with MLCAPE potentially increasing to the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Meanwhile, moderate midlevel flow will support effective shear in the 30-40 kt range, sufficient for organized clusters and perhaps a few marginal supercells. Some damaging-wind threat is expected to evolve as storms mature, especially where stronger heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates can occur this afternoon. Midlevel lapse rates are generally weak across the region, but buoyancy will be sufficient to support an isolated hail threat with any sustained supercells. Also, surface winds may remain locally backed across parts of New England, to the east of a surface trough across eastern NY. This may support sufficient low-level shear/SRH for a brief tornado threat. While the magnitude of the severe threat may remain somewhat limited across the region, coverage of organized storms may become sufficient for watch issuance this afternoon. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/21/2023

And clouded back up with darker bases. DAMN YOU HIGH THETA E / UNCAPPED AIRMASS

Some high cute clouds with blue sky here now

Just had thunder!!!! Thought the dog farted when he got up but the rumbling kept going

Satellite does look favorable for some clearing very shortly, but with these high theta-e/low capped airmasses that can always change very quickly. Shear is certainly sufficient and instability isn't bad, though lapse rates are kinda meh but not as bad as usual. There is good 3km CAPE and LCL's are on the lower side. All about getting a mature enough updraft to develop.

What's with all the posts about "noise"?

That has to be super cool.

You could go skiing in the morning and hit the beach in the afternoon

It is possible I may be able to swing it so long things hold off until a bit later.

I'll take a piece of this Slight Risk pizza please

Found it! https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00237-7#Fig1

eh after August (or moving closer towards the end of the months) this becomes more true but we have had some super hot stretches first few weeks of August.

It will be interesting to see what happens. I think a few months back I posted a link to this paper which did a study on big event events across the country during a transition from La Nina to EL Nino. The paper analyzed this transitioned with the SST configuration and explored extreme heat waves in the Southwest and heat waves across the East. Basically, the SST configuration we're in tended to favor bigger surges of heat across the Eastern US during the second half of summer (August).

I wonder if we get into any of the big heat sometime in August. Perhaps one reason why it hasn't been overall hot (well above-average during the day) is there really hasn't been any big heat across the country until really these past few weeks across the Southwest. That has finally changed though and there aren't any signs of the western ridging breakdown down. So at some point some of this may break off and head our way, but of course we've had these pesky troughs so any bigger heat may be deflected towards the mid-Atlantic and Southeast (similar to now).

Here is MTD. Warm mins probably the driver here

Also have some pretty nice TCUs developing along the sea-breeze boundary in Branford.

Could see a few beefy cells across western Massachusetts and western Connecticut tomorrow afternoon. Going to probably see some flash flooding as well.