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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. Getting one delivered for free from the USPS! Coming tomorrow.
  2. So going to have to see. Started to feel pretty sick as the day went on and had some food and couldn’t really taste it so scheduled a covid test for Wednesday
  3. Great post, I don't have much knowledge with the MJO and MJO forecasting, but your thoughts are similar to what I've gathered on the board over boards these years.
  4. This is probably the only thing that has me nervous about getting a more favorable pattern so soon. Anytime it comes down to differences within the tropical pacific (i.e. MJO) it's very difficult to merit a high level of confidence given how models are notorious for not handling tropical convection/MJO progression very well in the medium+ range. Not a knock on models, it's just that aspect is awfully difficult to resolve.
  5. Gorham is probably a more attractive name then "Hermit Lake".
  6. I'll be there. plan on getting there for the 2 PM and probably leave around 5:30 and get home for the B's game.
  7. yeah some nice looking soundings up north. wouldn't be surprised if a few spots picked up a couple inches or so quickly.
  8. Could be some intense snow squalls up north tomorrow. Maybe even some thunder
  9. I am fine with whatever. But if 2-3 people aren't going to be able to make it for 12/2 and say they are 2-3 out of like 12 that plan on going...maybe it's not a bad idea to move it. Is anyone who plans on going for 12/2 also free for 12/9?
  10. I can’t wait until we get Storm after storm…1 storm a week for 6-7 weeks straight.
  11. The thought of the sun beginning to set later in like 5 weeks is appealing. But yeah it takes a few weeks to really notice. For me it doesn't even really become noticeable until its like 6:00 and still light out
  12. If that blocking does materialize, perhaps that round of blocking doesn't net us much, however, I think it will set the stage for some bigger things to come once we move towards the end of the month or into January. I seriously hope though this NAO isn't overblown. If we can get blocking like this in December...watch out. Those who went with torch December just b/c "that is strong EL Nino climo" must be sweating...and it's not from the torch either.
  13. well it needs to get back into the grass and off the house. That thing is massive
  14. Saw this on the house this morning. Is this like a brown recluse????
  15. That is also similar to the February-March means of 1914-1915, 1957-1958!!!, 1968-1969
  16. December-January 1965-1966 is what I was thinking of. Ray's favorite analog
  17. Thanks! I've been trying to spend a ton of time analyzing composites in the NPAC and understand how configurations help shape the Arctic domain. I was trying to recall off the top of my head seeing a few EL Nino events where the GOA vortex became quite displaced south and east was good or bad for us. My relocation was it was bad as it promoted better ridging potential, but perhaps in this case the NAO is so overpowering it helps keep the ridging west a bit. This look though reminds me of a few Nino events...have to go back and see which ones. Well that would go with the notion where interior usually cashes in early on in the Nino's and then costal areas cash in later.
  18. I feel like we want that GOA vortex to be a bit farther north and west...correct?
  19. All in all I think we're definitely backing away from the idea of a typical EL Nino December. It certainly looks like we may be on the "milder" side to start but I think we're going to see a transition occur in December and not January. Personally, from a work perspective I hope we can keep the country quiet through Christmas but I have a hunch second week of December things begin to change.
  20. If I could weenie myself I would
  21. That's almost like what I'm expecting to see for January in the mean, just a bit less extreme.
  22. meh voodoo From what I read, it can yield what seems to be very accurate results, but it can't explain how it arrived at the results or show the work. Big red flag. Only benefit seems to be is it produces output much more quickly. That's what resources should be investing in...how to produce the data more quickly and efficiency.
  23. Rain here in Springfield. May have started as some flakes. I went to Wendy’s a bit after 8:00 and things were wet (no signs of snow). Rain started again as I was driving and I think I saw a few mangled flakes.
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