weatherwiz

I think we will get an Aleutian Low to form at some point...not just because of it's climo with EL Nino but other factors too such as the trend with the PDO. We ay see instances where the Aleutian Low weakens but if we can get a nice Aleutian Low established that could help enhance potential for blocking as well. Interesting times ahead.

This is totally weenie range and just the GFS but you have to love it's evolution with respect to the northern Pacific and its response across the Arctic domain. One great note to see is not a strong PV (at least in terms of tropospheric PV). This is one reason I'm big on blocking scenarios this upcoming winter because with a rather robust EQBO already in place, it might be very difficult for the PV to become established and strengthen as we move through the Fall and into the early winter. Anyways, we see plenty of little PV lobes get dip south at times and what I really like are these height anomalies within the Arctic...core of the anomalies are right within the Arctic domain around the North Pole region and you can see the ridging building SE to NW into Greenland. We could get some periods of rather robust -AO/-NAO combo and when you throw in transitioning PNA's...big potential could loom early in the season. I do think we could be active early on then we may get a bit of a lull and boredom for a few weeks (which could freak some people out) but that is part of another cycle/transition, (or pattern reload). After that reload if blocking can become established and the norm it could be quite fun.

wow did it clear out quickly here. It was cloudy like 10 min ago and I just look outside and it's predominately blue sky (looking east).

Looks like we will get some mild days upcoming. But the way things are headed I think the second half of November is going to be quite stormy. At least to me, the look going through November is vastly different from the past two years. Seems like we'll favor phasing and/or cyclogenesis much closer to the coast moving into the second half of November...past few winters it's been predominately towards the OV region.

Sun angle is about as overrated as the Edmonton Oilers

I like this look...matches well with how I think DJFM average out for this upcoming winter.

yes

sticking to everything but the pavement now. grass coated, fence getting coated, rooves all coated

into moderate snow now and starting to coat on the grass!

Flake size might be bigger than anything I saw last winter

It is coming down pretty good now!

I'm not really knowledgeable with tree types and species but looking around the neighborhood it's pretty weird. There are trees which are completely bare and just about bare (like the two trees we have in front) while some trees have most of their leaves and still changing color. Neighbors tree still have much of its leaves.

I like 12/2

nearly a solid light snow now.

Flakes falling in Springfield!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm really hoping to spend some time studying the Arctic this winter...both with evolution and continuing to look historically. I also want to look into the other side of the hemisphere...from say eastern Europe through Russia. There is one teleconnection pattern I wanted to look into but I forget what it is. I don't think it was the East Atlantic - Western Russia pattern (EA/WR) or Polar Eurasia pattern...but maybe it was one of these two. But there was another one.

I should also add...1986-1987 was on my list as a wild card in that if we don't get much blocking this winter may really suck

Thank you both. That was exhausting...never typing that much detail again My base years BTW are 1957-1958, 1963-1964, and 1968-1969. Only negative I saw for 2 of these years was were tropical forcing was located, but I don't think tropical forcing signal is going to have significant weight overall.

I apologize for providing a blog link here, but it would be a major pain to transfer everything here into a post, also with the number of images I have, I don't even think I have the upload capacity. I absolutely regret how lengthy this became and you'll see towards the end I just got much lazier. I started typing this up at the beginning of October but I have limited time where I can do blog work. I absolutely don't expect anyone to read through all of it. https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2023/10/2023-2024-winter-outlook.html

Happy Halloweenie Birthday! 35 today

well I am hoping to finish up my outlook this weekend (Actually I have too b/c if not I may never and I've put too much into it ). I was going to re-write it but decided not too. If it rivals the bible in terms of length than so be it. I'm just going going into as much depth as I did with the ENSO aspect. What really sucks for me is I suck with evaluating or forecasting Arctic stuff...which I get is very hard to do, but there are individuals who are very skilled at it. I really wish I had a better understanding of all these products, how to interpret them, and how to use them for forecasting purposes https://www.stratobserve.com/

The people who choose to commit these cowardly acts do so because...well they can. There is nothing from stopping someone from doing so. Stricter policies, laws, whatever, is only a small piece of the puzzle. Banning things isn't going to be a total fix, especially where the black market is available. While there are also policies in place preventing certain individuals from being able to possess weapons...that isn't going to stop someone from trying or obtaining. In terms of laws, laws are in place to punish crimes, not prevent them. Those who entertain in criminal behavior don't give a crap about the law. This issue is so deep and we will never, ever, every fix this as a society because there will never be enough people to come to an agreement. The, "This is my thinking and I'm right and you're wrong" mindset we've developed in this country is sickening.

Heart breaking what you, your family, and friends are going through. This is so disgusting.

Very gad to hear you and your family are safe. Thoughts and prayers to all impacted. Horrible

Yup you nailed it I should send you what I have lol. But I know how to make it much shorter so that will be good. This will give me some time too and try to do some work into the Arctic.