weatherwiz

I think the thing with tomorrow really is, while not widespread whoever gets into anything is going to get some intense downpours and could even pick up a quick inch or so of rain and obviously given our situation it won't take much for some localized flash flooding. I'm actually a bit shocked the HRRR didn't have more in the way of development tomorrow, at least within a narrow corridor for eastern New York into Vermont and western New England.

Actually tomorrow is a bit interesting. Don't think we'll see widespread storms because we're lacking better shortwave forcing, though dynamics, particularly upper-level dynamics are quite strong, but could see some strong storms around and motions should be relatively slow so probably see a localized flash flood risk. Western sections are favored, but could see some activity make its way east during the overnight.

Maybe another 0.25'' to 0.50'' across Vermont tomorrow?

Yes severe threat all but done

Friday could be another nasty day with some severe potential. Similar to Thursday

Cloud tops with that batch of convection south of Long Island off the Jersey coast have been cooling quite a bit.

Just got a push notification from NBC app that Tweed New Haven is closed due to flooding

Tornado potential decreasing quite a bit too across western sections as core of LLJ now moves off to the northeast.

Things seem to be filling in from NJ through southwest CT. Some areas are going to pick up easily another few inches this afternoon. What may help is it's not a solid precipitation shield with some lighter intensities mixed in but there will be some significant localized flash flooding through the day.

Both

Yeah very much so.

western Connecticut may luck out but along and east of 84 it's going to be pretty nasty through the day.

Things are really blossoming over New Jersey

Got a little on the breezy side as precipitation has ended

May be a pretty good proxy but probably even farther southwest across southern Connecticut into Long Island. Really going to see radar trends over the next 1-2 hours to the southwest.

upper-level divergence should continue to increase through the afternoon as the core of the jet streak continues lifting northeast Core of llvl jet is overhead now and should remain pretty strong into the early afternoon with moisture transport maximized right over the region While everything was relatively progressive earlier the east trend has definitely slowed quite a bit. Really watching down across New Jersey where precipitation is filling in and convection is beginning to blossom based on satellite.

Tornado Warning north of Philly

Albany's radar seems to have picked up some relatively low CCs over Rocky Hill but don't think it's TDS territory. Didn't see anything popping on BOX or OKX

Watching this area of development. There may be a "lull" behind this initial batch (but things are filling in) but watch for this stuff to blossom as it moves northeast. Can't rule out some peaks of sun in between which would skyrocket CAPE locally

It is in a very favorable environment. Flow too may be a bit enhanced in the valley

yes it does. Quite a bit of lightning with it too. A good sign it's some healthy convection.

May have to watch around Southington, Bristol, New Britain, and Farmington over the next 20 min

Yeah there were some frames which had some pretty low CC's but didn't appear to be quite low enough to classify as TDS. But some of those velocity scans were pretty impressive for around these parts.

I really wouldn't expect much in the way of wind today. Actually, if you're happening to experience a sudden bursts of strong winds there's a solid chance there could be a tornado nearby Any wind though is going to be tied into any very deep convective cores or with any brief tornadoes.

STP is a 1 right over where that warning is near Lowell.