weatherwiz

mid-level dry slot punching in

Fine by me. When I used to be a walker...I HATED wind when it was cold. There is nothing more pointless than freezing cold WITH wind. When I had to walk places and it was cold and windy...I used to just scream and curse b/c I'd be so angry.

When I took Oceanography several years ago (which was a super fun class) and we were on the subject of the global heat budget there was some discussion by the professor as one theory behind why we have seen so many hurricanes rapidly strengthen in certain regions. Obviously, we all know that heat is transported poleward via ocean and atmospheric currents and that there is always an excess of heat budget within the Tropics. However, given the rapid warmth at the Poles, the transport budget is being impacted and it's possible that there is an excess budget within the tropics and when tropical systems are able to tap into this they just take off running.

Great point. That's important to understand, especially when using anomaly charts. Still have to understand what the climo and avg. is.

Remember there was a time in the winter models would spit out like 2'' QPF during storms and more often than not those numbers would be tossed. We've seen plenty of big dog storms (though certainly not lately) where 2'' QPF is almost too little

Intriguing. Makes a lot of sense when you think about it. I know I've read some stuff which argued differently - that a warming planet would result in decreased winds due to a lessening temperature gradient between the poles and equator (with the greatest warming obviously occurring at the poles). But strengthening jet stream makes sense. Sure the temperature contrast between pole and equator is a larger driver in the jet stream, but there is also the vertical contrast in temperature which must be factored in. Much of, if not, all the warming is occurring within the lower troposphere so there is an increasing gradient in the vertical which would also influence the jet. Density differences as well would play a significant factor.

They cancel winter if they get 2-3'' of snow when they were expecting 4-5''.

The GFS does get some weak mixed-layer CAPE into eastern sections early Monday morning so that is something to watch for getting 55-60+ mph gust potential.

No doubt.

same here. If January and/or February do not work out I am going to be at a loss for words.

Rolling that pattern forward would probably equate to big January potential

Here's IJD. There's only so many locations you can get bufkit data for. Here's HVN

Here is the 6z GFS bufkit for BDL. Max gust potential I can find atop the mixed layer is 51 knots. But looking at the sounding, it's pretty unlikely we would actually fully mix so adjusting the Momentum Xfer down a notch you can see now something around 35 knots...this is more realistic There is higher wind potential on the backside with the CAA and better mixing with steeper lapse rates

The algorithm in those wind maps must be designed to use a constant mixing depth. At least on bufkit you can play around with different mixing heights.

Gotta wait until May or June for widespread 65-70 mph winds with convection.

Hope you sleep with an umbrella

That would certainly help.

Ridiculous. Pretty graphics and customized outputs to raise the hype.

That one had steep mlvl lapse rates (which steepened through the evening) and a nice little plume of MLCAPE > 250 J/KG. None of this will be present Sunday. I thought llvl lapse rates were steeper but I guessnot

The February 2016 event is a textbook scenario of how you get a big wind event in these setups. That had steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level lapse rates and unseasonably high llvl theta-e given the impressive warmth/moisture surge.

1) Strong convection 2) steep llvl lapse rates That's what you need to really get the wind to perform in these setups. Heavy rain can certainly help with momentum transport, however, the heavy rain also further weakens the lapse rates and can enhance llvl inversions. It is certainly possible there could be a rouge 45-55 mph gust inland if there are any embedded areas of strong convection. I still think there may be a forced line of convection along the front, but instability seems pretty weak and there probably won't be much, if any, lightning. If anything, this line would help get some gusts in the 35-40 mph range as opposed to 25-35 which will be more common.

The worst of the weather will likely be overnight Sunday anyways when everyone will be sleeping. It will be pretty breezy for everyone...would suspect sustained winds 15-25 mph (lesser for those sheltered) with gusts 30-40. Certainly nothing special. We'll see stronger wind gusts probably with the CAA

It was 135 points

ahh right. Bruins play too...guess I know what I'll be watching. Maybe there is some draftkings prop where you can bet the Bruins will put up more goals than the Patriots will points.

Could be a fun game in Pittsburgh Sunday...maybe the wind can give Jones some extra zap on his throws