weatherwiz

Wasn't it the CanSIPS on TT but I swore there was a product for forecast 200mb velocity potential anomalies but I don't see it anywhere on any of the models. Did TT get rid of the product?

One product too (at least when it comes to the late spring/summer months here) is the Gulf of Mexico. What I'm about to say is just hypothesis as I don't have any data or maps to show this but I would have to wager that the waters in the Gulf of Mexico have been predominately above-average moving through the Winter months the past few decades. With the Gulf of Mexico running so warm, we're seeing higher dewpoints being brought farther northwards earlier in the season than you would usually suspect. Take this summer, for example. Again, nothing to back this up but there have been some saying the waters in the Gulf were weeks, if not, months ahead of schedule in terms of temperatures. When you're dealing with water temperatures pushing well into the 80's and probably even...lower 90's just think about how much llvl moisture is being fed into the atmosphere. These summer airmasses are becoming so dense and because of the pattern which seems to become established every summer, we're not driving these refreshing fronts south and east of the Rockies until we near the Fall. Even when we get fronts to sort of refresh the airmass here, they are either coming from across the Great Lakes or southeast Canada so the refreshment is brief, as the airmass source to our west and southwest is still juiced. I don't think it gets underplayed but I don't think its taken into account that how much of an influence the Gulf of Mexico has on our climate, despite being so far removed.

Yup, I totally get what you're saying. As much as I believe CC is having an influence I'm not going to blame every weather anomaly on CC. For example, dew points well into the 70's are not uncommon in our region during the summer nor are overnight lows only down into the 60's or even lower 70's at times, however, is there an increasing trend for these occurrences...and as we've discussed CC may be playing a role in these frequencies. But yeah...every time I see folks just blaming CC for every weather anomaly or event I cringe. It really pisses me off because the way it is portrayed in the media and argued I think is totally off base...and from both sides and the arguments are totally wrong...but that again is my opinion.

Agreed.

The next negative cycle I think we're going to learn a great deal on regarding climate. I mean we'll do so anyways just because of improvements with technology, increased data collection, and continued growth with skill but when you look at tropical data and data on temperature records, the coincidence with the flip from -AMO to +AMO is pretty striking. Certainly there is more at play than the +AMO but I don't think the AMO gets discussed or even mentioned, especially within the mainstream media (they probably don't even know what the hell it is). But if you look at all the strides made within the field since the last -AMO cycle, it's remarkable. Maybe one day I'll do a blog post on this. It's all just my opinion but I find it interesting anyways.

I am extremely curious to see what happens once the AMO begins to flip towards the negative phase, though I would presume we are still some years away from that. What's the average life-cycle for each phase, like ~30 years? The flip happened around 1995 so you would have to think that we are either at the peak of the +AMO cycle or very close to it. I've always been in the belief that if we're continuing to smash warm records during the next -AMO cycle then we're in some trouble. Now, I don't think we'd see a total regime flip once we go -AMO, it may take some time for the atmosphere to adjust

Borderline light sweatshirt weather today.

It's coming. Not sure why some are dismissing it but it is coming. Can use all the WPC products, charts, graphs showing how climo is declining, etc...who cares, all of that is irrelevant and doesn't change what the outcome is going to be. When the new pattern becomes established moving through early August, it isn't just going to end overnight. Going to have to be some significant changes to the Northern Hemisphere state...maybe some tropical activity jumpstarts changes but much of August going to be en fuego.

I have not seen many bees this year with the exception of bumble bees. I did have a baby yellow jacket in the house a few weeks back but I really have not encountered any.

I can't believe July is almost over. This month flew by. Dealing with the dogs second (and more severe) spinal stroke a few weeks back, combined with other things going on...feels like everything this month happened in one blink.

Great stuff, thank you!

I would imagine once we get into a more favorable state things can get active real quick. And I'm getting beyond my knowledge here so hence the vague sentence lol. I would imagine we're dead right now because of unfavorable MJO phase or is there just too much subsidence over the Basin?

More like mid-December

We going to have to have a monstrous peak and a season which persists in Dec at this rate

Excellent! That is just beyond responsible. I don't understand people. The stories you hear about every day of children or pets dying in hot cars is sickening. I have no clue how you can "forget" you have a child or a pet in the car or how you can think its alright to leave them in the car while you go off and do whatever it is your doing. I saw one story the other day that it was believed a father was distracted by his XBOX or Playstation...ARE YOU KIDDIND ME???

This is certainly true. When I used to walk everywhere and be outside more during winter it was easier to tolerate and handle.

I think age definitely factors into the thinking and mindset about the seasons, however, that can't be said for everyone. I've always hated the cold and the early darkness, however, it never really bothered me. But the last several years it really has started to do so, but its mostly related to changes in personal life I think. I've always been a huge hockey fan, and that really grew after my grandfather had passed in 2008. He was a massive Red Sox fan (got me into it) and we watched every game together. But hockey is a winter sport, so I watch all Bruins games and I had season tickets to the Hartford Wolf Pack for so many years so I was either watching hockey on TV or going to games. I also used to go out a few times a week. Essentially, I was constantly busy...always had something to do. But now that I ended up re-locating to Springfield (which I want back in CT sooooo badly) I don't get to do alot of these things anymore, so I'm not as busy...that's when you notice things more.

Winter is more tolerable with snow. I get why people hate snow (outside of weather weenies), it's a nuisance and can be disruptive but winter by itself, without snow, sucks. I get in the summer when it is oppressively hot and humid you can't do any activity outside very long, but at least you can find ways to enjoy yourself or at least just relax. What can you do outside in winter (ski/snowboard if you're into that) but its not like you can just post up in your lawn chair outside when its 30F.

WTF, that's ridiculous. I'd go off on that camp. I worked as a camp counselor for about 8 years and the camp was 95% outdoors. I always made sure there was at least one water cooler at every outside station and made sure they got re-filled. When we had the most oppressive days, we made sure to limit strenuous outside activity and be in the shade as much as possible.

Lots of confused people in here the past few pages. Don't even know where to begin

Yeah I don't see much indicating we'll be cloudy or predominately cloudy Saturday, outside of some high clouds streaming in. However, there may be an opportunity for some llvl clouds may scouting southern areas?

Beyond Tuesday next week looks pretty active with unseasonably strong mlvl flow and multiple shortwaves traversing it. It should be quite humid as well, probably oppressive dewpoints returning. No EMLs likely next week but definitely some severe weather potential mixed in, especially with any stronger shortwaves mixed in.

Missed out on everything to my north yesterday and then south. Got to Middletown, CT to get the dog like 5:45ish. There was some cool mammatus clouds overhead. When they were helping us get the dog into the car there was a bight flash of lighting and loud rumble of thunder...that was the extent of the storms for me. As we were driving south that is when the storms were moving across Mass. Then of course, the night stuff was southern CT.

about on schedule

May end up driving through stuff later this afternoon along the traveling of 91 journey. Our dog can finally come home today (still is unable to walk or have movement in his back legs) and its off to a long road of rehab and time. Hoping I can perhaps get home before everything and not have to be traveling on the highway during it.