weatherwiz

Sitting outside and it is chilly. This is miserable actually. Nothing fun about this. This might be fine for November but not August. Probably be better if the Sun were out.

We're at the point in the season now where stronger FROPA's and high pressure systems arriving from Canada are going to become more common. Of course it's not going to be days and days of well above-average temperatures and high humidity but and this is where the new climate regime shows its face is, the periods of well above-average temperatures are going to far outweigh days like today and tomorrow.

Probably more likely to happen just ahead of the cold front later in the week

I look at it more as trolling the ACATT crowd. Their mouths probably watering only for the unfortunate reality of 80's with dews in the 60's to lower 70's to smack them.

Today is actually a hot cocoa kind of day. May make some

All of next week will be humid until we get a FROPA sometime next weekend.

Not cold, I just love 80's and humidity.

looks like a 1-2-3 punch for Hawaii

Hawaii may get a little something late in the weekend

Went outside. This "refreshing" airmass...it sucks.

Surprised SPC removed thunder area for tomorrow. Still looks good for some small hailers in the vicinity of the cold pool. Probably favor northern NY/VT/NW MA

it’s very depressing really.

Drove through storms in Hartford on my way to New Britain. Crazy CGs. At five churches for trivia and my friends mom got here and said lots of roads here closed due to flooding. I got lucky, didn’t encounter any getting off Rt 9 and driving through downtown

Not sure if we get into this since the core of the cold pool is over NYS, but there could be numerous small hailers around Wednesday. That is a damn impressive cold pool.

or the date stamp at the bottom

Agreed, this is going to be/already is a huge factor in some of these events. Just think of how much coastal Connecticut and Long Island have been built up since Bob and who knows how some of those building codes are. I know the buildings that were destroyed in Sandy/Irene and re-built were required to be built with those stilts but coastal Connecticut and Long Island is a catastrophe waiting to happen.

The NAM develops a slug of heavy rain/thunder during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow and moves it northeast. One of the only models showing this

Holy ****

I saw one of the two individuals who were swept away by the flood waters in Oxford was found dead I can't even imagine being caught in a situation where that occurs. The panic that must set in, I mean WTF do you do?

Yeah it very well may be just bad luck overall but its still pretty interesting. Reminds me a bit of the western New York ordeal where you have several tornado tracks which are eerie similar...some where the start/end points are nearly identical. But what you're saying about the warm season low tracks makes a ton of sense. Historically, we've seen plenty of these setups where due to the low track, we don't really drive the warm front northwards through New England, it tends to get hung up around the coast...so add the extra fuel to interact with that boundary and, viola.

ahhh right, I was thinking about checking that. Would be much easier to do that actually. But also to your earlier post which a few other have chimed in on, the number of heavy rain/flooding events across that corridor the last like 8 years has been insane. There has to be something happening on a mesoscale or microscale level. Could there maybe be some sort of coastal (or I guess Sound) enhancement going on as a result of the warmer waters over the Sound these last several years?

I wonder if there are any charts on the Iowa State site for this but I'd be curious to see occurrence of PWAT thresholds per year. I would have to think this past decade we've been running quite high in the occurrence of PWAT events up around 2''. It seems like every rain event we get now PWATS are surging to around 2''.

Mesoanalysis data is kind of scary. Looks like PWATS are on the rise across southwest CT with llvl moisture surging northwards (lower 70’s building in) with a bit of an increase in the llvl jet. It’s quite unstable too

Yeah that is not good looking. Hopefully it falls apart but what an uneasy feeling

Holy shit. I was just there for a wedding a few months ago.