weatherwiz

Persistence works if you're in San Diego, CA.

I'm not sure it really works like that in Northern Hemisphere winter though. With the jet stream tending to be more volatile you get more ridge/trough patterns. I think it's difficult to get a set pattern to persist that long.

For at least 3 weeks? That's an awful long time.

Thanks for the explanation on this! As for the bolded...ehhh just thinking of ways we can just significantly alter things and on the more quicker side of the spectrum I am just getting a little nervous that if we keep harping on and reflecting on "subtle" changes this winter is going to turn into a dud very quickly. I see no reason to deviate from my winter outlook thoughts, but at some point going to have to ask myself, "where is the line between wishing and reality"?

Is it too late in the season to get any giant typhoons and better yet, a recurving typhoon?

February is a month where historically, we can rack up the snow numbers. We all could go into the last week of January and start February below-average in terms of snowfall and then come out of February quite a bit percent above.

Wouldn't mind a string of years of ENSO Neutral (slightly towards the warmer side) years.

Florida life

What I was thinking was after the cold November and when the MJO was much more favorable for us, we engulfed into a warmer pattern across the country (which seems very correlated to how you'd expect DEC to evolve during a stronger EL Nino) and as we did this the MJO fizzled out but it happened to do so in crappy phases. I agree that the MJO probably isn't really doing jack, but it's not really helping either. I think it's important to understand that the background state this winter is completely different than the past few years so those trying to say this winter will suck for the same reasons the last few did are totally wrong - but I think it's just becoming apparent subtle, small changes aren't going to get us anywhere. Forecast models continue to be insistent that tropical forcing ramps up and strengthens quite a bit in the IOD region...so maybe that will be the aid we need. Good point too about the lag...there would be quite a lag and with that...time may be ticking. If we don't see these changes start to actually take shape for another week - 10 days (or two weeks) we need to figure a lag in the 7-12 day spectrum...that gets us into the second week of January or so.

We may need something abrupt and significant to change and shake things up. The way everything seems to go now small subtle changes and baby steps just don't work out.

I am actually starting to get a little nervous. I was going to wait until the first or second week of January before eliciting those feelings but I think the MJO crapping out in phases 5-7 really screwed us. It's tough to tell if the changes moving forward or positive, but it seems to me it's kind of just the same stale pattern that becomes stagnant. The MJO does look to become more favorable, but unfortunately there might not be much for it to help with. Kind of worried that anything that looks better is more of a suppressed look.

About to go on a little cruise just off of Fort Lauderdale! Despite the clouds and breeze and light rain, it’s warm and a bit humid! We take. Merry Christmas and happy holidays everyone!

What luck

Jeans and a light jacket on

Cold is pointless without snow. Especially these past few mornings. Down in the teens both nights. I was nervous back in the summer that I would miss a big snowstorm this week but that’s not going to happen. Looks like winter kicks off when I get back.

Just landed at PBI. 78F!!! Don’t be jelly anyone

It might be time for everyone to take a bit of a mental break and refrain from posting for a few times. Enjoy the weekend with friends/family and come back fresh. Yes December sucked and it's painful but there are no indications that continues through January (at least not yet anyways).

95/72 is my threshold for shorts.

hmmm I didn't think of this. Good point. I think I'll stick with jeans. It will certainly be warmer than it will be here, however, I asked myself...would I be wearing shorts here if it was in the 70's (even if it was a bit humid) the answer is...helllllllll no

Trying to figure if 1) I should pack shorts or jeans for Florida next week. 2) What to wear to the airport Saturday. I'm debating wearing shorts but it's a pain to take off your belt and then walk as your pants slowly start to drop. Thinking sweatpants but not sure I have any.

If this was Monopoly and we drew that as a chance card it would read, "Ride the Wave Train to snowier times. If you pass go, take your trolling ass out of here"

Was it 2008 or 2009 we had that clipper on NYE that ended up being an overperformer...didn't it come on the brink of a pattern change too. Maybe that can happen again this year.

This December is easily going to finish well above-average in the Northeast and across the country. The West will take a hit later this weekend and early next weekend a bit but I would have to think this will end up being the warmest December on record. These anomalies are only going to increase next week

Everything is going to plan and how several have envisioned things would progress. Nothing has been pushed back or delayed. Fantasy has bled into reality from all the wishcasting for a White Christmas.

This year to last year 2023 (through 12.21.23) 2022 (Through 12.21.22)