weatherwiz

Was just about to post on this, a bit difficult to have a true feel but it seems like it's kind of re-formed a bit farther north and west with a northerly movement (basing on IR). I would want to think we would want to see a more easterly trajectory no later than 27N...or just a few ticks above 27N to really feel confident about lessening potential for greatest surge into the Bay

well here we go

The most important thing to probably watch over the next couple of hours is where the eye either re-emerges or becomes more clear. This is going to be critical as we near the final several hours leading up to landfall and where landfall occurs and even when talking about the angle.

That is one heck of a primed environment for tornadoes. 3km CAPE values going to approach 200 J/KG with MLCAPE > 1000 J/KG and 0-1km helicity > 300 m2s2.

I would have to think extremely uncommon. Rainfall totals could approach or exceed a foot along the landfall swath. Florida certainly isn’t a stranger to intense rainfall rates with summer thunderstorms but keep in mind the duration of those rates isn’t very long and they tend to be localized. This will be widespread and putting a ton of water into areas where there isn’t anywhere to really put it.

The flash flooding is going to be disastrous. That is some epic rainfall rates on the NAM over the Tampa area extending northeast towards or just south of Orlando...talking about multiple hours with rates probably exceeding 2''/hour. PWAT values in excess of 3 inches.

This is probably going down to the final few hours to know exactly where landfall will occur. If I lived in Tampa or around Tampa and elected to ride this one out, I would be sweating bullets. There are likely going to be numerous wobbles and re-positioning of the eye as the storm continues to go through internal structural changes. Not only this but the forward speed and the timing is adding some uncertainty to this as well because now you also need to factor in how/if trough interaction or involvement also influences the track and when any abrupt shifts more ENE occur.

still 30 miles. TS though out to 140 miles now

The 165 mph the NHC as it as is fine. There is no evidence this is anything greater than 165 mph.

I guess now its just waiting for another ERC to get going. Something is going to have to give soon for another round of "weakening". I am curious though if this remains steady state and the eye happens to find that blob of warmer water. Some new convection developing southeast side but a tad out from the center. Def fighting that shear too on the northern side

I was wondering the last few days if we would see a scenario where it would adjust track/path to avoid the shear.

The last several scans are jaw dropping. Was looking at the IR one second and look over like 5 minutes later to see rapid developing of convection, convection wrapping around, and the eye clearing out...yikes. It also seems to me like the storm is not necessarily fighting the stronger wind shear to the north but its structuring itself to avoid the shear or have the shear lessen its influence...wild.

Don't know if its scheduled yet but I would figure something around 18z...maybe closer to 19z and start getting data to prepare for the 21z update.

cloud tops within the eye warming quickly

I think I jinxed it, about 15 minutes after I said there hasn't been no new convection for a while, convection started to blossom on the east side. Not only is the convection starting to wrap around the west side but looks like the convection on the east side is even expanding a bit towards the southeastern side.

I am curious to see what happens as it continues to pull away from the Yucatan but like what had just been posted, shear/dry air are definitely having some impact here. But the structure of this was just so good going into the ERC we'll just have to see how much the dry air/shear can disrupt the entire circulation. Haven't seen any new convection flare in a while so that's good.

damn...

10-15 foot surge now forecast for Tampa Bay...no words.

It's insane how steadfast the GFS has been on a landfall extremely close to Tampa, even when it's ensembles were farther South. I mean a good chunk of guidance was always south but everything has been caving to the GFS op. I am scared for Tampa...can't imagine what those people are going through watching the updates.

Portions of I40 and I26 have been removed from google maps and GPS mapping. Going to be an absolute nightmare for those trying to navigate down that way. Who knows how long its going to take them to rebuild some of those stretches

What a freaking day. Actually felt hot, wish I had wore shorts instead of jeans. Was taking apart a fence panel and finished some staining and wow was I hot and sweaty. But I love that feeling, then stepping into the shower and feeling the warm water running down your skin and coalesce with the sweat and magic happens. The feeling afterwards…indescribable.

I can understand if you're from an area where that doesn't happen, it would be really cool to see. But if you live here...there is no appeal and they're an inconvenience when they fall. You have to clean them, they're slippery when wet, and they clog storm drains. They also mark up the cars.

Good, its creepy how giddy people get over the color of leaves. Yes, the leaves on the trees change colors every fall, nothing we haven't seen before. The same colors too.

north is definitely better

Yeah we'll have to see how far north that warm boundary gets tomorrow but right along that boundary could be a focus for some rotating storms. We certainly aren't going to see much in the way of Sun/heating tomorrow, but like you said...instability will be more synoptically driven. Shear will be pretty strong and enhanced along the boundary and that's a decent shortwave chugging through. Not expecting widespread activity but could see a few nasty cells along that boundary.