weatherwiz

As long as it doesn't make it's way inside.

well it needs to get back into the grass and off the house. That thing is massive

Saw this on the house this morning. Is this like a brown recluse????

Are we still doing 12/2?

That is also similar to the February-March means of 1914-1915, 1957-1958!!!, 1968-1969

December-January 1965-1966 is what I was thinking of. Ray's favorite analog

Thanks! I've been trying to spend a ton of time analyzing composites in the NPAC and understand how configurations help shape the Arctic domain. I was trying to recall off the top of my head seeing a few EL Nino events where the GOA vortex became quite displaced south and east was good or bad for us. My relocation was it was bad as it promoted better ridging potential, but perhaps in this case the NAO is so overpowering it helps keep the ridging west a bit. This look though reminds me of a few Nino events...have to go back and see which ones. Well that would go with the notion where interior usually cashes in early on in the Nino's and then costal areas cash in later.

I feel like we want that GOA vortex to be a bit farther north and west...correct?

All in all I think we're definitely backing away from the idea of a typical EL Nino December. It certainly looks like we may be on the "milder" side to start but I think we're going to see a transition occur in December and not January. Personally, from a work perspective I hope we can keep the country quiet through Christmas but I have a hunch second week of December things begin to change.

If I could weenie myself I would

That's almost like what I'm expecting to see for January in the mean, just a bit less extreme.

meh voodoo From what I read, it can yield what seems to be very accurate results, but it can't explain how it arrived at the results or show the work. Big red flag. Only benefit seems to be is it produces output much more quickly. That's what resources should be investing in...how to produce the data more quickly and efficiency.

Rain here in Springfield. May have started as some flakes. I went to Wendy’s a bit after 8:00 and things were wet (no signs of snow). Rain started again as I was driving and I think I saw a few mangled flakes.

Agreed, I'm still feeling 1957-1958 vibes. The signals we're starting to see for December are quite encouraging. what I would really hate to see are signals of a strengthening and dominating PV, which nothing has really suggested. Obviously we'll see some seasonal strengthening, but if the PV fails to become established moving into or through first half of December...I expect blocking begins to set in and we're off to the races as we get a much more favorable VP over the CONUS.

We need that big time. Past few years, even when we've seen some signs of a trough into the East there was always ridging hanging around just to or east...or the likelihood the trough axis would be too far west and we pump up heights in the East. That concern is gone with this look.

Can't hate where that mean trough axis is

Definitely going to see some heavy snow in spots later on. It is quite cold and with the super low dew points evap cooing should cool things even more. Some pretty intense 850 fronto too in this core of WAA

It is extremely encouraging. Definitely love to see that. Once we are able to shake the rising air over much of the CONUS as well (evident by that VP map) we should start to get a more active look...something beyond just frontal systems and frontal system induced lows.

I'll take my chances with an active southern stream. The "cold" is just a relative term. Yeah I'm sure climo will still bite someone in the behind, but we don't need -10F departures either. Just get an active southern stream, storm track just a bit off the coast, and have favorable temperatures across southeast Canada to tap into.

I wonder if we're trying to re-strengthen the -PDO or if this is just some noise. Some interesting SST trends though over the past week, particularly within the ENSO domain. Be curious to see how SOI/MEI roll out in a few weeks.

Does last night constitute as a hard freeze? I think so. Was walking the dog in the yard to use the bathroom around 5:45 AM this morning and the ground was super hard. It was also very peaceful. Starting up at the cloudless sky and seeing stars...haven't done something like that in quite some time. You can just look at the sky and know it's cold.

I am hoping at some point down the road cod will add HRRR point-and-click soundings. I should check out Pivotal...I know they offered paid subscriptions. I have weathermodels for $10/month but it's really not that great.

That looks like a wall of heavy snow for the Berks and southern Greens on the HRRR. Should jump onto TT since you can check HRRR soundings there but per cod that is all snow with some intense dbz

Tornado Watch for parts of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Almost forgot what a tornado watch was. First watch in over a month.

yeah I was looking at ORH on bufkit and that's a pretty decent cross hair signature. 6z NAM had 20 units of omega into the DGZ. You can really see the warm air is really struggling to penetrate into the polar airmass. Giving timing of precip too this could be a nice burst of accumulating snow for the interior.