weatherwiz

Almost looks like a bit of dynamic cooling going on with the NAM

I always go back and forth with this notion as well and you know what...learning requires time and patience. Time and patience is something which seems to be fading in today's society. Everyone is in such a rush and people want so much information but they don't want to take the time needed to fully digest information. People who are out there to truly learn and understand something are going to take the time to do so.

At least the pattern is looking active going for at least the few weeks. The PAC is quite unstable too...you can see where the model flip flopping is coming from.

meh

Yes definitely. I was hoping maybe the GFS was onto some idea but these 12z runs have ended it for me. You can clearly see where this is headed now.

This is probably just going to be a typical FROPA with showers, some heavier rain, and gusty winds

I was just going to post this I hope it's not another winter of this crap with the model swings and uncertainty. This is beyond laughable.

Frost angels?

NAO to me looks to be transitioning. I wouldn't classify the NAO as a textbook +NAO.

The 0z GFS still seems like it would be a pretty decent front end thump for interior New England. What could really help in this situation too is timing of the precip. Also, I wouldn't totally discount the solution of 6z. There is definitely signs for secondary low development so if that primary doesn't become overly strong (or even weakens) the secondary could be more of a factor. Is it likely? Probably not, but this is going to be a very complex evolution and we need to see a better handle of the synoptic evolution.

That is one pretty negatively tilted trough. If we can get that secondary to be just a bit more east we would wedge longer.

I'm concerned Mac Jones will become the first QB in history to throw a pick on a bye week

Starting to get more confident in this scenario occurring. what I really like is there is an absence of any PAC air flooding anywhere in Canada or the United States...it's a cold look for a large chunk of the country. I am a little concerned, however, that it may be cold/dry but conflicted on this. For as cold of a look that is the pattern is not suppressed...we have the STJ close by with the PJ just to our north so there could be potential for something big to morph during that pattern. However, what concerns me is the barrage of Arctic high's which slide south and east into the Great Plains and into the East...this is what concerns me for the dry look.

I thought that was 2018. I was at school...it was alot of fun. Well wasn't fun for the commuters but I recall the snow coming in like a wall.

Was it Nov. 2018 when there was that sick early season SWEF or was the in December? I remember EWR getting crushed with heavy snow rates.

we take

True

Next Friday looks chilly. Going to the Wolf Pack game in Springfield. Hopefully not too cold.

Absolutely. Something fun to track over the next week. Kind of hoping that HP can act in our favor and maybe help suppress a bit but like you said...too early for these type of details. Can iron that stuff out early next week.

Regardless of track and evolution, I think it's fair to say that period of going to elicit a pretty significant pattern change across the CONUS. Whether it is transient or something that holds for a bit we'll see as the signals are a bit conflicting but if that pattern can hold we certainly should have some winter threats. Probably favored more as the pattern breaks down a bit.

That is one deep trough on the GFS for Thanksgiving week...and it probably still isn't done amplifying given the jet streak is only beginning to round the base of it lol

Yikes...that is pretty frightening. Great post, can't disagree with this at all. Weather forecasting has become a very hot commodity with a rapidly growing private sector. As skills have improved with short-term forecasting the envelope has certainly expanded to dig deeper and further out. You're absolutely right though, there has to be a realistic approach and understanding about its value. From what I see with a lot of long-range/seasonal stuff out there (though this may not apply to vendors who provide this stuff for clients) the communication aspect needs to be significantly improved. Often times on social media you'll see the posts looking at the D10+ day progs and it comes across as if that should be the expectation. Now most in the field (whether its professionals or hobbyists) probably understand that is not the case - but the issue is this type of information gets to the general public who don't know how to understand or interpret this information and all hell breaks lose (cue the hype machines). Long range/seasonal forecasting is something I've always been very intrigued in and I'm gad I've finally been able to get time to dabble into it this past year. I've found that through research of historical patterns, ENSO, teleconnections that I even feel like it's positively impacted my short/medium range forecasting. There are also negatives with this. There are so many companies emerging who "promise" they have all these tools and can pinpoint things down to city level so many days and week out and wow people with pretty graphics and cute colors and essentially suck people in and just steal their money.

I think I remember that event (obviously from watching TWC). IIRC that was a very active winter across the Southeast in terms of severe weather/tornadoes with several big outbreaks. Maybe even one in the mid-Atlantic?

For sure. For those like correlating anything and everything to New England snowfall, is there any correlation between ANC getting smoked and us

I'm sure those in Anchorage may surely welcome that