weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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Tomorrow looks very interesting just off to the West. I'm not sure if we will get stuff to maintain moving into western Mass and northwestern Connecticut but that's some pretty good deep layer shear and directional shear. Also, lapse rates don't look as terrible as they did a few days ago.
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NAM is pretty decent up to the CT/MA border Saturday. mlvl lapse rates blow so typical caveats with that
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I haven't really paid attention to the environment today and just looked at mesoanalysis and that's a helluva environment down in New Jersey. 125-150 J of 3km CAPE just east with 0-1km helicity of 200 m2s2...yikes
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yeah that has to be down...that is a pretty solid spin in the llvls of that storm
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TOR in NJ...looks decent too. Add another to their list this year?
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I'm inclined to agree with this.
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Just a tad overmixed
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Then we fail at simulating
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GFS is interesting Saturday. Monday interesting too but looks more south and west for best potential.
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Everyone gets caught up in simulations and AI
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there's probably a plan to name every single swirl that arises
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we'll probably get the cane up here then
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Your best chance of seeing a Cane down in Florida is September 29th when the Carolina Hurricanes play split squad games at the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning.
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I gained one pound since last summer!
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I had to put the heat on in the car this morning
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Holy shit that’s terrible
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Yeah I’m thinking heavy rain and flooding is by far the biggest concern here. I don’t even think there is much thunder really. Those lapse rates are about as terrible as you can get. Obviously if southern areas can tap into the higher theta-e air it’s a different story with low potential
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Severe potential is all about how much llvl CAPE can materialize which the best bet will be in the true warm sector. It likely will have to be pretty sufficient too as shear is going to be quite strong. So if there isn’t enough instability any rotation will be pretty meh and updrafts will be ripped apart easily. LCL’s should be super low which helps
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The heat/humidity has been quite relentless down that way. I think yesterday at 8 AM MIA had a HI close to 100
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I’d love 95-100…I’d love even more 95-100 with dews in the 70’s. But if 95-100 can’t happen keep the dews in the 70’s. Sweat for all
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I can envision a few days of 85/74 in late October with a massive front delivering a tree toppling derecho and then 5 days later a 12-18” heavy, wet snow event taking down the rest of the trees.
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Gotcha, ehh I don’t like using the term “hottest” on record in this situation. I think that just drives hype. Like Scott said, much of the above-average warmth in July was the result of warm minimum temperatures, which of course, was a product of the prolonged periods higher dewpoints.
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I don't think the OP was referencing only New England with that statement (or hope not anyways). I think the statement referenced the intense heat in the deep South and the high dews across the eastern third of the country.
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Wow that's quite impressive for sure. The atmosphere is certainly going to be juiced. We're looking at PWAT values once again between 1.70-2.00'' so it isn't going to take much to ring out the atmosphere. We've all seen first hand what even "tiny showers" produce in terms of rainfall rates in this type of airmass.
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I don't think it's a totally outlandish solution. That trough is continuing to amplify and interacts with the shortwave energy associated with that convection. Kind of has a fall/winter feel to it with the dynamics and interactions...idk
