weatherwiz

that tomato is bigger than the pumpkin

Measured 90 mph wind gust at an ASOS station in Falls City, NE and we have dews pushing 60...summah is backkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk

hmm maybe there was both '02 and '04. I can't remember '02 but I am pretty sure we also had snow before Thanksgiving in '04. I remember being in math class when we got the early dismissal announcement and that class/teacher I had was during my junior year of high school which was '04. I'm trying to recall '02...I also know one of those years we had some nasty thunderstorms roll through during the morning around Thanksgiving...may have even been on Thanksgiving.

Was it 2002 of the Thanksgiving snow or 2004 (or maybe both years). But that 2004 one (assuming I got the year right) was pretty solid. I remember we got an early dismissal from school that day. It was snowing pretty hard by late morning. Want to say I got like 5-8'' in West Hartford...maybe not quite 8.

I've never been to Kansas but last night reminded me of one of those evening nights in Kansas before a big severe weather outbreak in the Fall. Took the dog outside before the Bruins game at 6:52 PM and it felt like the scene in the beginning of Night of the Twisters where the guy is sitting in his truck and radioing back to the NWS "it doesn't feel right".

It's pretty wild seeing so many fronts just dry up as they move into the Northeast. Something you would expect moreso in late July and August versus late October and November. I hope though what we're seeing with the ridging across the East isn't an influence of or being driven by developing La Nina conditions. If that is the case and we're establishing what will be a more common presence and fixture moving through these next few months...that will not bode well for our winter prospects. NNE though could potentially cash in huge.

Chilly for sure, would be much different with the Sun out. The sky has that snow look too.

I wonder if NWS offices there have their own in-house models.

How the hell does one forecast for Anchorage (or Alaska) in general?

Best Halloween ever

I don't think anyone will be radiating at night mid-week.

An unfortunate reality we just have to get used too.

what he means is these were ignited by people

That's alot of wood...trying to rebuild Abe Lincoln's log cabin?

Just goes to show that timing can mean everything and even hold more weight than the overall pattern itself. This is why I've become less enthused with wetting my lips over D6-10 or D10+ EPS or ensemble H5 looks. It's one thing to get a "nice looking pattern" - which what does that even mean? but its a whole other ballgame getting the timing of all the pieces to work out.

that general thunder area from SPC has to be an error. Thought maybe there was some elevated instability with the warm front but I see nada. But I wouldn't be shocked to see a well defined batch of heavier rain up north...that is some serious WAA and that nose of the jet should help (maybe that yields the risk for some thunder).

These clouds look super cool...waves in the sky

It's a smart move. Declaring state of emergency allows the state to get any assistance/aid quickly in the event it is needed.

Some places in the Midwest are looking at departures for both highs/lows of about +25 to +30 Tuesday/Wednesday We'll be closing out October with like +15 to +20.

Surprisingly, yes. One of these winters we're going to cash in big. I mean the backlog is going back 3-4 years now. I'm still waiting for those "D10 EPS looks good" patterns to produce from 3 years ago.

Would be interested in those stats as well and I 100% agree with you. I can't image us being dry very long in that sort of regime. The one exception I can think of is if we have an anomalous Southeast ridge with HP off the Southeast coast (que La Nina). Obviously in the summer this would be good for showers/thunderstorms but given the lack of instability during the winter that wouldn't be the case.

Maybe a below-average precip winter won't be the worst thing. I mean we have had some horrible luck with some of the above-average precip winter's lately not equating to above-average snow (at least for the region as a whole). With the regime we're in above-average precip seems to be coinciding with warmer winter patterns...below-average would probably indicate colder pattern and then we cash in with whatever precip maker we get. Disclaimer: This is somewhat of a tongue-in-check post but somewhat serious too.

I don't think so. I think that area is climatologically favorable October/early November.

Need to start getting some strong systems into the PAC NW (which the long-range GFS shows). This could certainly help ripple the pattern up a bit across the CONUS.

Nobody is going to be able to give out chocolate...it's all going to melt.