weatherwiz

My girlfriend and I are still quite sick so it’s definitely a no go .

I'm thinking a strip of 10-16'' possible where the heaviest banding occurs and confidence seems to be increasing such a band will materialize. Certainly some support for 2''+ per hour rates based on some of the bufkit data.

this could be a fun little "surprise" for some. Might be a forecasting nightmare though for areas borderline. Some of those borderline locations end up a smidge colder and its easily close to several inches given the rates.

Looks like the 18z NAM coming onboard for Sun into Mon too

Seems like the Euro gets several inches for PWM

Euro seems to look good up north. Looks like a heafy band would materialize

GFS bufkit is pretty hefty thumping for PWM for a period.

It's certainly cutting it close. Some minor ticks in each direction on the GFS would be pretty huge in terms of result. If the Euro can remain steadfast at 12z that may be enough to increase the excitement level a bit, but want to at least see these subtle trends through 0z tonight/12z tomorrow.

Yeah looking at the GFS I think PWM would probably start as rain but verbatim would probably flip over to snow, especially with heavier rates.

That would actually probably be pretty nice for interior SW CT

there looks to be a very weak CAD signal...weak enough to where the models may be understating how cold it may be. I could see the models being 2-3F too warm at the sfc.

There is definitely room to get things a bit cooler for areas borderline.

certainly looking fun on the 12z gfs for up north Sunday into Monday. could be a decent band of heavy snow that materializes.

I think the only way we get screwed this winter, is if we get intense blocking which results in a suppressed pattern and neither of us are expecting blocking to be that extreme. I don't think we get screwed because of cutters or b/c we get flooded with mild PAC air.

Frustration is fine and this place is a great place to let off frustration because it's not like we can do it in public Can do it in front of family/friends but they'll just give s funny looks. The problem is when the frustration starts to intertwine and interfere with the discussion. If someone is providing insight and thoughts into how things may evolve moving forward (backed with science) and it's a barrage of posts where the frustration dilutes the discussion then it becomes not fun anymore.

ehhh I think it's even beyond frustration from last winter, it's just impatience. It's understandable...you want that first event to happen but we just got into December lol. Mostly everyone here should know and understand climo and when our favorable period is for storms/snow. It's like cancelling summer on June 2 because nobody hit 90 yet.

Yeah understanding the strengths/weaknesses of models should certainly be factored in. One example of this is with forecasting temperatures and using MOS. We see this very often during the spring months, but MOS tends to struggle mightily when it comes to highly anomalous patterns. When we see an anomalously warm airmass in the spring, MOS can underdo temperatures badly. See this often in the heart of the country too...sometimes MOS will miss in places by like 10-15F can't argue that

was just looking for any posts on this I am sick as a dog...not even sure I can make it through the Bruins game but if this is legit I may try super hard. My gf is quite sick too so not sure either of us will be up to it.

Great post, well said. Couldn't agree more. This is a pretty darn good way to state things. And what I have bolded irks me too. It's not that models "change". I mean when you think of it, the solution the model is spitting out is the product of how the pattern is evolving (time step derivatives, leap frog equation...I forget what that was called. Did that in mesoanalysis. I remember one Thanksgiving morning tackling that homework assignment). So feasibly, the solution the model is spitting out is correct...assuming the evolution occurs that way. Ultimately though, I think it just comes down to expectations and we let emptions get in the way and then all hell breaks loose.

I've often wondered if going to coarser and finer resolutions has had some sort of negative feedback...but maybe the positives outweigh the negatives.

Yeah I agree with this. Scores or whatever may say differently but there seems to have been much more uncertainty within 3-4 days in not only how the mid/upper levels will evolve but with the overall look and from model-to-model and run-to-run.

I wish there was more dedication to model physics/background in school (maybe that's more of a grad level thing or maybe other schools do this). Understanding models is more than just being able to interpret the output. That is a small, tiny fraction of it. Ultimately though, forecasting has gotten more lazy. When I first joined the boards in the mid 2000's there was much more in-depth analysis and assessments of patterns, synoptics, etc. When you go around and read accounts of how meteorologists used to forecast back in the day and the techniques used...it all seemed very thorough. Now when there is a severe weather threat in the Plains, everyone runs to supercell composite charts and significant tornado probs, anytime there is a winter weather threat, it's running to the 10:1 maps and using 10:1 maps for snow/sleet, even though it gets stated 8 million times why you can't do that, or running to the Kucheria snow maps because it paints out more snow than the 10:1. The integration and explosion of social media and how irresponsibly alot of this information gets tossed out makes it seem like models are worse but they really aren't.

Starting to really like the signals we're seeing regarding the PNA and PAC in general moving forward. There has been a consistent trend towards getting a more favorable pattern to unload some good cold into Canada. This is something we've lacked big time the last few years. Regardless of what happens with these waves this week or any subsequent "winter" threat over the next 2-3 weeks...we're making subtle trends towards more favorable times ahead.

Yeah it's basically this...just be courteous of those around you if you are sick. This dude was just walking around the office coughing and sneezing, and probably touching stuff...then comes within super close contact. If you're sick, just be respectful of those around you.

It's probably going to be quite difficult to determine how likely such a scenario is until we have a clearer picture of how 12/4 unfolds. The differences between the GFS/Euro are still pretty striking. Euro really cranks this up with a closed, but large H5 with a pretty intense jet streak at the base...also has double-barrel low. GFS is just a weak mangled mess. Euro's consistency though is a bit noteworthy.