weatherwiz

Breaking out into sun. Let's see what we can pop up later

You should just move onto to next Mets season

Not bad looking southwest of Pomfret

Decent rotation near Ashford.

The rain Monday is believed to have contributed to a water main break in Springfield Monday night and we have a boil water alert. Got it last night and just got the update again. Says nothing about not showering and I showered this morning. Hopefully I don't undergo some type of mutation.

Lee now moving NNW and picked up speed all so slightly (9 mph) per 11 AM advisory

At least the 6z GFS anyways, showed pretty steep lapse rates developing within the region (not the entire region but a corridor of steep lapse rates).

It's wild how "little" rain it's taking for some significant flooding. Danbury is a mess and sounds like Hartford is a mess too.

something must be up with PSU because I can't get any bufkit profiles except the HRRR

Yup...30-60 mph gusts are going to cause problems given our environment (well moreso 40-60). Just think of what summer thunderstorms do locally with similar wind gusts but extrapolate those gusts over a widespread area.

Probably from the mud due all the flooding

Starting to rain in Springfield. It is dark...very dark. Only reason I don't have a light on is so I can see flashes of lightning

not terrible looking. been holding decently since before Farmington. See if it has enough juice to strengthen any

I seem to be having issues with bufkit this morning too

40-50 mph wind gusts now vs. November is totally different. In the sense of gusts, sure they may not be overly impressive but 40-50 mph gusts in this environment is going to cause more issues than usual. I think widespread 40-50 mph gusts are doable for a large area.

Danbury hit hard. Water rescues going on per a friend that lives there

can't miss what there never was

The wind field is insane. Hurricane force winds outwards of 125 miles with tropical storm 240 miles

Maybe instead of tossing the flowers at the end, the NWS can supply them with a weather balloon and they can toss that instead

Great post, but you know how it goes...if someone's backyard isn't aligned for something it just because pages and pages of tirade and crap. We all like to have fun and it probably goes overboard because many of us have known each other for years but the discussions really get watered down. Think of how many people on here and come here to try and learn and understand...they're heads probably spin because the discussions can turn so chaotic with one person saying one thing and someone else saying something the complete opposite. It's unfortunate for those less knowledgeable wanting to learn b/c how are they supposed to interpret that. Tropical is something I am not very knowledgeable in but I have gained quite a bit of knowledge in the last few years from some of the tropical threads and events. Hell, I think I even learned a quite a bit from the Lee discussion, but for someone really wanting to learn and understand they have to suffer through crap.

I wouldn't be surprised if Lee falls apart more quickly than what the GFS has. If it ingests drier air into the core it will fade quickly and there is plenty of dry air around. Inner core maintains pretty well though and it fights it off for a while.

In my inexperienced opinion, it seems like much of the wonky stuff is tied into interaction with the front/trough progressing across the Northeast tomorrow. Too me at least, that accounts for alot of the wiggles back and forth on OP guidance. While both the NAM and GFS sort of weaken the trough and de-amplify a bit, there are some disagreements into how quickly this happens and the extent and that could play a big roll in how far west Lee will get. If we see see towards the western envelope, I think it's something into extreme western Nova Scotia or the eye just west of the actual land. I don't think we will see a final solution any more west than this.

Today should be quite isolated and probably more of the quick hitting nature

I am going to lay out in the hammock Saturday with beer and let the stiff winds from Lee slowly rock me back and forth and play a lullaby on my phone so I gently fall asleep.

Saturday is going to certainly be a fall like day