weatherwiz

At some point in the upcoming months (though this will probably have to be more of a spring project) I want to really dig into SST's off the East Coast during the winter months and compare SSTA's with seasonal snowfall totals and distribution along with storm track. These last few winters...or maybe several it seems anytime we get any sort of coastal two things happen: 1. It tracks so close to the coast we get destroyed with milder air 2. Rapid cyclogenesis occurs so early and close enough to the coast that we get flooded with milder air well ahead of the system. I would really love to see hard data on SSTA's during snowier vs. least snowier winters with a focus on storm track. The answer I'm sure is pretty obvious but actually seeing the results is a different ball game.

Would have to dig deeper but my guess is because this closes off and occludes well west. If dynamics and synoptics weren't as impressive I don't think we would be seeing QPF totals this extreme even across western sections. Of course there is likely some enhancement from Philippe too.

eh I don't see this becoming progressive...not with that ulvl evolution

Yeah if this synoptic look verifies there is going to be big problems. There should also be more in the way of convection and convective elements involved as well which would only add to the issues.

Yeah Saturday could be pretty ugly. These dynamics are quite impressive with a deep southerly flow in the mid/upper levels check out the PWAT anomalies...woozers

so I've been working quite a bit on this the past week. Essentially, and this goes to an earlier post I made (either in this thread or the winter ENSO thread) but I'm an idiot. Issue is I make these composites and put into MS Paint and print them out and they're super small. When I was assessing the northern PAC SST structure I was focusing on the wrong area. I came to this conclusion when I was looking at ASON SSTA's for 1906. The raw number was fairly positive but my interpretation was a -PDO. My focus on SST structure in the north Pacific had been too far south

Yup 70's to around 80 won't be seen again until maybe February

Could be potential for a tornado or two Saturday, especially towards the coast.

Yeah moving forward you can't compare this week to anything. Anything is going to be cooler compared to this, even an above-average pattern. Have to compare to climo essentially.

Definitely going to get cooler with the upcoming pattern, though I wouldn't be surprised if we see models moderate a bit as we get closer.

What the hell is that?

Anyone know what these things are? They’re biting me and the bites look like mosquito bites

This is by far and away one of the best days of the year. Today is the definition of perfection. Will be sitting outside drinking some beers watching the pats game.

maybe a little bit of subsidence going on?

Me either...they're breading grounds for spiders, centipedes, millipedes, and anything else with too many legs.

I can't believe the rainfall totals on the HRRR. I thought perhaps the HRRR would back off some at 18z but nope. Certainly quite a bit of convective enhancement going on across a narrow swath. Looks like a decent little instability axis with some decent elevated CAPE.

NAM GFS spits out about an inch of precip at BDL while GFS is a few tenths of an inch

Only thing that could keep temps back Tuesday is we should develop quite a bit of fair cumulus clouds given steep lapse rates and pretty decent instability (especially for Oct. standards). Should have enough moisture present as well.

Don't forget those are 2m temperatures, it can be colder at the surface.

Cowboys may be avoiding flooding rains in New England this weekend with the game in Dallas but they won't be able to avoid getting flooded with offense from the Patriots.

Everything going north. Seems like the only thing going south are the birds.

Going to the Big E around 5...what a stunningly lovely day. Another 10-15F warmer would be perfect but this is great stuff.

Yes, I believe PDO also incorporates SLP and surface wind stress. Incorporating SLP anomalies probably is a good idea when classifying PDO state during EL Nino (and La Nina regimes). I am very curious to see how the PDO progresses through the remainder of the fall. Based on raw PDO data, we're in a solid -PDO state and that massive warm pool in the north Pacific is reflective of that as well (only think really lacking is cooler waters off the western coasts). There have been very few winters where we had a strong EL Nino episode and a solidly -PDO state.

Question for @CoastalWx @ORH_wxman @40/70 Benchmark or really anyone who is much more knowledgeable than I am in this respect. I am doing some work with the PDO and ENSO phase. In assessing positive (warm) phase versus negative (cool) phase I am using this guideline from Stepen Hare and Nathan Mantua: Now we know that the PDO tends to be in the warm phase during EL Nino episodes and the cool phase during La Nina episodes, however, that is not always the case. Below are ASON SST's during EL Nino events. Utilizing the graphic from above, I am focusing on SSTA patterns within the equatorial Pacific, west coasts of the United States, Canada, and Alaska, and the northern Pacific. I am cross referencing with the raw numbers from this site https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ One thing I'm noticing is I think the very warm waters associated with EL Nino across the equatorial Pacific are heavily skewing the raw PDO data. For example, here is 1913 PDO data for ASON (clearly the numbers are positive) However, the SST configuration is not very reflective of a +PDO pattern So I guess two questions are: 1. When assessing PDO state what metrics should be considered to balance out how ENSO may skew the PDO (SSTs within the equatorial PAC)? 2. If the SSTA configuration say from the west coast of the U.S. north across Alaska and north Pacific are more reflective of a negative (cool) phase but you have the warm SST's within the equatorial PAC due to EL Nino, what's the distinguisher to classify PDO state?

I haven't looked too heavily but I thought it seemed a bit weird how the GFS warms 850/925 Saturday and Sunday despite a flow which did not seem favorable. I would figure we would want to see at least even a weak westerly flow in the warm llvls to advect the airmass over the OV in. Now...it does look like there could be some over the top spillage into northern New England but I also question whether we'll mix as deep as the GFS is suggesting.