weatherwiz

Happy Halloweenie Birthday! 35 today

well I am hoping to finish up my outlook this weekend (Actually I have too b/c if not I may never and I've put too much into it ). I was going to re-write it but decided not too. If it rivals the bible in terms of length than so be it. I'm just going going into as much depth as I did with the ENSO aspect. What really sucks for me is I suck with evaluating or forecasting Arctic stuff...which I get is very hard to do, but there are individuals who are very skilled at it. I really wish I had a better understanding of all these products, how to interpret them, and how to use them for forecasting purposes https://www.stratobserve.com/

The people who choose to commit these cowardly acts do so because...well they can. There is nothing from stopping someone from doing so. Stricter policies, laws, whatever, is only a small piece of the puzzle. Banning things isn't going to be a total fix, especially where the black market is available. While there are also policies in place preventing certain individuals from being able to possess weapons...that isn't going to stop someone from trying or obtaining. In terms of laws, laws are in place to punish crimes, not prevent them. Those who entertain in criminal behavior don't give a crap about the law. This issue is so deep and we will never, ever, every fix this as a society because there will never be enough people to come to an agreement. The, "This is my thinking and I'm right and you're wrong" mindset we've developed in this country is sickening.

Heart breaking what you, your family, and friends are going through. This is so disgusting.

Very gad to hear you and your family are safe. Thoughts and prayers to all impacted. Horrible

Yup you nailed it I should send you what I have lol. But I know how to make it much shorter so that will be good. This will give me some time too and try to do some work into the Arctic.

Going to re-write my winter outlook...been working on the typing the past few weeks (mostly weekend and evenings) but I got way too carried away explanting things. Almost to the point to where I am mentally exhausted (especially after working). Anyways, part of me believes the EL Nino has already peaked (unless we see some surges in WWB's). Warmer waters in 1+2 are very shallow and any continued upwelling with easterlies will continue to yield colder waters mixing to the sfc in that region (will have to watch for this EL Nino to become modoki, though that probably isn't likely). In terms of tropical forcing west of the dateline, should that continue here are 500mb height anomalies for these events (it should be noted that there are no strong EL Nino's on record with tropical forcing west of dateline (though 1925-1926 was right at the strong threshold). Doesn't mean it can't happen, just stating we haven't seen it. Here are EL Nino winters with T.F. west. (Note: 1939-1940 and 1976-1977 were on the threshold of moderate Nino and match well with 1925-1926) I have a list of years that I'm heavily looking at for analogs, but even those years have variations. One thing I'm noting is many of some of my matches either have strong, evident blocking or a very strong vortex. We have seen many winters the last decade where the PAC held the trump card, however, this winter may be more tied into the Arctic Domain.

Seems like much of the ridging in the east here is driven (or enhanced) by the energy which breaks off the jet early in the week across California and digs into the southwest United States? I'm wondering if that does not happen if this ridging would be much less pronounced.

Mine is going to be super long as well...my whole discussion on the historical context of EL Nino's is massive. While I understand the notion that people don't like to sit and read through long stuff (especially nowadays where our attention spans are crap b/c of cell phones) I like making long posts because 1. It helps me in my understanding 2. It lessens the likelihood of anyone questioning the validity of my work and that I just didn't "steal" thoughts 3. I hope it helps teach others who want to learn 4. I also hope it elicits a response from someone if I happen to state something incorrectly

I spent all of last weekend writing up the ENSO aspect of my outlook...discussing the historical context of EL Nino events. Can't really type up much during the week, but can at least work on composites and other stuff. I am super hoping to finish up my thoughts/outlook this weekend b/c the next few weekends I'll be busy and looks like weather across the country starts getting a bit busy the next few weeks.

Great stuff. This is what I had come up with for 500mb anomalies for EL Nino years in which tropical forcing was focused just west of the dateline. You'll notice I don't have 2002/2009 in this list, I had those years classified as Tropical forcing centered around the dateline, however, 2002/2009 absolutely would fit the mold of tropical forcing west of dateline. I noticed it could be a little tricky using OLR vs. SVP for determining tropical forcing. I used OLR because database for SVP does not go back prior to like 1948.

Judging from an assessment of height anomalies within the PNA region for many years in the database, I would argue that the PNA correlation with us is much stronger with the structure of the PNA field and where the center of the (strengthened or weakened) low is positioned then it is with state of the PNA.

Basing a seasonal forecast on just the strength of an ENSO event alone is so 1990's and basing just off structure is so 2000's. There are a million things to analyze, assess, and consider. It's important to understand the role each phenomena plays on the atmospheric circulation. Here is the typical 500mb pattern for all EL Nino's. Clearly, you can see when averaging all EL Nino's, there is a tendency for a deeper Aleutian Low with ridging within the Arctic domain into Canada, with a trough signal across the southeastern United States. Now from many of the composites posted in the "Let's talk ENSO' thread, it's evidentially clear there is a wide range in pattern circulations during EL Nino episodes. What then becomes important is understanding how things like QBO, PNA, PDO, EPO, tropical forcing, all contribute to shape and disrupt the "mean". While EL Nino's tend to yield +PNA (as shown above), it's important to understand there could be forcing's which mute this PNA signal. I should retract a bit because strength/structure do play a role...I didn't mean to dispute that but disputing the notion of being pessimistic just because strength.

The numerous composites I've posted which break down each event individually state otherwise. There are weak events which were cold, warm, decent snow, little snow. There were moderate events which were cold, warm, decent snow, little snow. There were strong events which were warm, cold, snow, and little snow. Majority of EL Nino's tend to be east-based since they develop east and build west. -PDO/EL Nino winter's include 1911-1912 (cold east) (moderate EL nino) 1919-1920 (warm east) (weak EL nino) 1951-1952 (near-avg) (moderate EL Nino) 1953-1954 (slightly above-average NE) (weak EL Nino) 1965-1966 (cold east) (super-strong EL Nino) 1968-1969 (cold east) (moderate EL Nino) 1972-1973 (warm east) (super-strong EL Nino) 1994-1995 (slightly above-avg) (moderate EL Nino) Siberian snow cover is the most overrated thing ever.

100% agreed with those points.

Like Ray I feel good about this winter's prospects. Anyone discounting winter just because of ENSO strength is doing themselves an injustice. I think some just automatically mean a warm winter when they hear strong EL Nino because some of the more recent episodes. But I think this EL Nino will rival some of the earlier EL Nino's.

Also kind of reminds me of 1965-1966. Not sure what that produced in terms of snow but it was a drier-than-average winter across the eastern third of the country. That was also a strong/super strong EL Nino w/-PDO

How so? Here are temperature anomalies for strong and super strong events. Three things are noted 1. Strong/super strong events can still produce below-average temperatures within the United States and especially across the East 2. More recent stronger episodes have been on the warmer side 3. super-strong certainly tends to favor warmer, but the 1965-1966 winter was far from warmer. The sample size with super EL Nino's is also super small so not much to work off.

Yeah the "bad luck" of 2009-2010 I don't think had anything to do with ENSO strength. In fact, that winter was more a borderline moderate/strong event. Technically it's strong because of the threshold values (both within the ONI and ENS-ONI) but it was right on the line. The anomalies within the Arctic domain were intense over a very large spatial area and also pretty far south. If anything, stratospheric processes and stratosphere-troposphere coupling had a much larger role than ENSO. In fact, if you just look at ENSO, the atmospheric circulation was fairly similar to what you would expect for an EL Nino (particularly moderate) it was just distorted a bit due to the Arctic domain.

Yes, that is a huge issue of mine. I've been trying harder to set a scope and stick to it. I often find myself trying to get too cute when classification of things, needing to understand not everything is textbook.

@40/70 Benchmark I was reading your post and looking at the 2006-2007 winter and noticed you classified it as WQBO while in my notes I put as a descending easterly so I went to look at the QBO data. I am guessing QBO phase in the 30mb - 50mb level is what is most important? This is why I wrote down descending easterly but clearly 30-50mb level was positive during that time with easterly above it.

I'm just glad I didn't type up the QBO portion of my outlook yet...I'd be fuming right now with all that wasted work. I'd probably be going home tonight and cuddling a 40

too many notes going on and too much stuff going on

I'm reading through your solar/QBO section now and I'm surprised nobody called me out on my post yesterday. I incorrectly stated that descending easterly QBO phase does not favor blocking, when blocking potential increases during the descending easterly phase. I saw your post and went back to my QBO notes to confirm. In a notebook I had some notes on QBO/Arctic domain and had strong in parentheses...but I was thinking I meant strong blocking when I meant strong PV...so I had it backwards in my post yesterday

This is incredibly well-done! First off, I have never even come across the EMI. So this is some great learning material for me. Secondly, I am super happy to see what you mentioned about challenging signals regarding tropical forcing during basin wide events b/c that is exactly what I had noticed too (after that screw up I had late in the summer in the thread I made). But I tried to break down tropical forcing into east of dateline, centered around dateline, and west of dateline and it was very difficult to obtain clear-definitive signals. I am going to thoroughly read through the sections on solar over the course of the day.