weatherwiz

As always, this was very thoroughly done and a great read. It makes me very happy and I feel a bit more confident that we are pretty much on the same page as to how this winter will evolve. I enjoyed your sections when you went into the Walker Cell/Hadley Cells into great depth and how you focused on the lack of gradient within the Pacific with retrospect to SST's and SLP. This is something that I noted as well but didn't go into great depths about, neither within my post or with analyzing. One big difference between what we've done with the breakdowns is you did EP, Basin Wide, and Modoki breakdowns. I did not have a basin wide category. Perhaps my favorite part of your outlook is the depth you go into regarding the background warming as a result of climate change and how that needs to be factored in. The RONI and EMI are something I'm going to further explore as well. I will be re-reading your sections on solar/volcanic impacts on the stratosphere several times. This is a subject I have little knowledge in and you really break this down to where it's easy enough to develop a building block to learn from and further explore.

Hope you have some pretty nice looking TP comabt

Agreed and I can't see the PV ever really getting an opportunity to become seasonably strong and dominant. I am also fine with "less blocky". Not only do we reduce the potential for suppression with less blocky but I think we increase the potential for pattern re-loading instead of just a stagnant, decaying pattern.

Yeah possible...which if that happens I may start to get a little worried (but that is going to depend how we're looking in the stratosphere). But given how (and I'm reading through your winter outlook now) it seems we're along the same thought process regarding needing the Arctic to cooperate, if we start getting any delay in that I may get a bit nervous. But if we're at least evolving towards emerging blocking holding off a few weeks won't be too bad. IMO, any instances of +AO we see going into or through December, is going to be a product of the hemispheric evolution of the synoptic pattern and will not really be reflective of stratospheric evolution. This is why I like 1957-1958 as my top analog. If any positive instances of AO/NAO are driven by synoptic evolutions and not stratospheric this will tell me the two aren't coupled and the stratosphere is setting up for blocking...and that eventually we will see this become reflective within the troposphere and then the stratosphere/troposphere become coupled...and in a way to where we can deliver. But in this scenario I do think there would be at least some possibility of suppression but that would be the product of some highly anomalous blocking.

I wouldn't be shocked, in fact, I'm anticipating a +NAO regime to evolve for the month of December, but we see a transition to a more blocking regime probably by late month.

Once the Iguanas start migrating north

Next week looks rather complex, especially with that signal for a cut-off to develop across the southern states. Just looking at the GFS though, taken verbatim, I wouldn't be shocked if we ended up with more of a trough into the Northeast next week and after this weekend/early next weeks shot of colder air, the remainder of the week remains on the cooler side. Seems like the split flow in the E PAC kind of hurts us from being colder?

Heavy, heavy frost this morning when I woke up.

I'll have to read your outlook over the next few days. Weather is extremely quiet so I should be able to no problem. I read some literature which classified 1991-1992 as Modoki. I'll go and and read your thoughts but at when I was assessing the development, I could see why it was classified as Modoki. The greatest anomalies were always within the central Pacific and it appears the development of this EL Nino occurred in the central Pacific and built east at times. But if this is not Modoki...my hunch would be how this evolved between October-November where the stream off warmer anomalies actually developed within 1.2 and built west towards the anomalies in the CP. But to me at least it always seemed this was a CP EL Nino or a bit of a hybrid

Perfect time!

Cool looking

1957-1958 winter incoming. Would be amazing if the pattern were able to develop faster than in 1957-1958 Actually the pattern this month isn't *too far off* from Dec of 1957. So let's December of 1957 out of the way now and then open the flood gates come December.

Mow the snow too

Yeah I totally would not rule out a colder December yet. As you know, there certainly have been some cold December's in stronger EL Nino episodes. Those saying, "December will be warm b/c that's what climo says" are selling themselves short. I would not be at all surprised to see some blocking in December, maybe something along the lines of pesudo-blocking. Nothing thus far though I think is 100% convincing for a warm Dec.

No drinks near the laptop this time. Years ago I spilled a 40 on my laptop. I also spilled Red Bull and Jager on I think the same laptop. EDIT: Nevermind....I didn't spill those on laptops, I spilled them on a keyboard. I had desktop back then

Thanks! I forgot that was offered on TT I think I will take that

That signal for anomalous warmth the second half of next week is very real and I would say is quite high on the confidence level. When looking that far out and dealing with the potential for something rather anomalous, and in this case warmth, you want to look very closely what is going on across eastern Canada and the northwestern Atlantic northeast of Maine. In this case there doesn't seem to be any high to our northeast which would yield the potential for CAD and there is no high off to our north to dampen the rising heights. Looks pretty favorable for an anomalous S/SW llvl flow to become established well into eastern Canada as the week progresses.

However, I am assuming we are going to want to see this configuration change up. These +SVP anomalies across the U.S. can't be a good thing

tells me that period could be quite stormy...and hopefully we're on the colder side of the spectrum

I don't think that storm will really have an impact in that manner, but typhoons in the PAC (especially recurving Typhoons) can alter the downstream pattern significantly. @Ginx snewx and @Typhoon Tip can go into biblical details on this.

If we can maintain this massive warm pool driving the -PDO through winter I think that is going to bode very well for us. It doesn't even have to remain this intense...even if it were to weaken Obviously the PDO has been negative for quite some time and these warm anomalies have been a fixture for quite a while. This has helped to maintain very strong ridging just west of the Aleutians I was looking back at past EL Nino winter's which presented this 500mb height anomaly structure. The reasoning is as follows: The ridging west of Aleutian is yielding a persisting troughing feature within the Gulf of Alaska domain and we should continue to see this strengthened as the Aleutian Low strengthens (typical of a Nino). The Aleutian Low can make us and it can break us, but past years 1913-1914 1940-1941 1957-1958 (BIG FAVORITE OF MINE FOR AN ANALOG!!!!!) 1958-1959 1965-1966 1968-1969 1994-1995 (no please but also the Aleutian Low was rather south and we had a raging +AO) 2009-2010 all featured persisting troughing within the Northeast and also favored blocking (exception of 94-95). I am on board for some major blocking periods this winter. I mean look at those height anomalies spanning the Arctic across the hemisphere...things to me seem to be setting up nicely. While I do think Dec could be a typical EL Nino like month...I would not set this in stone yet.

A great place to really start is always the Pacific but the overall hemispheric pattern can provide a good signal...especially when its a ridge/trough pattern and everything is on the progressive side. You can get an idea of where your ridges/troughs will be 3-5+ days out. It's not always this clear cut but identifying where your troughs/ridges are can help.

Really interesting to see some potential for tropical activity within the next 10 days. This may be a long shot but there may be a system in the Gulf late weekend/early next week which could materialize into something and the GFS has been really hinting at a pretty power Caribbean storm later next week or next weekend. Now of course neither of these will have an impact on our sensible weather, but when looking at this from an atmospheric perspective and forcings...this could be a clue of how the pattern could evolve moving through the second half of the month.

In my endeavors regarding the IOD, I came across this. Not sure if anyone is familiar with this but this is a pretty sick site https://www.jamstec.go.jp/virtualearth/general/en/index.html#SINTEX/DJF2024/SINTEX_wind/SINTEX_wind/mean/all/orthographic=-221.21,34.27,773

Does anyone know off-hand if this is the best or preferred source for historical IOD data? https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/DMI/