weatherwiz

I wouldn't be so quick to totally write the NAM off just yet. One major difference between the NAM/GFS is where the placement of the Arctic front and where the baroclinic zone resides. Models can really struggle with this aspect. If you look at the NAM (the Euro is somewhat closer to the NAM than GFS I think) where the baroclinic zone is positioned, combined with the dynamics would yield potential for cyclogenesis and low pressure to move north and east off the coast. I know there are some models that are amped, but I think those models are a bit overdone. I don't see much in the way of room for this to become amped, however, Tuesday into Wednesday could be a bit interesting as that second shortwave which moves through looks to be more amped and have room to be more amped. One of the keys with these Arctic boundaries is where the barolcinic zone resides which models can really struggle with. There is even differences with the swath of wintry precipitation in the South but if a sfc low can spawn more quickly that is something to watch. Ultimately, the window is very small for a bigger event, but region wide light snows are certainly on the table.

High soil moisture = higher dews for May?

Big fail on the wind on my part. Always like to play conservative but did not do that this time. I felt pretty good we would 1) See a forced line of convection 2) That would be sufficient to mix winds down Anyways, snow pack here wiped down but still looks like 3'' maybe 4'' left. And now there is fog developing

Looks like the core of the line is along coastal CT

oh shit...I meant to say 12-3 I was comparing line vs. HRRR and I totally slipped on the time change (paying more attention to hockey lol)

Seeing temps 55-58F across NJ and far southeast PA...wonder if that gets into CT/RI at all. I've noticed the HRRR has slightly ticked up a bit in temps overnight...popping more 54-55 vs. 51-53.

1-4 AM (earliest southwest CT and then moving northeast through the early overnight). there may actually be two separate lines...one forming now and then something that goes across southeast MA late overnight.

I see our low topped, force line developing

hmm my power just flickered 1st period isn't even over yet...crap

What would fish show up as on the CC department?

I hope my power waits to go out until after this Bruins game.

I really think it is a distinct possibility we see widespread gusts 50-60 mph and some gusts 60-65 overnight with the line moving northeast. The mesos are really consistent in a fine line moving northeast across much of CT and points northeast. If we can get temperatures to spike in the lower 50’s that will really help I think. Latest HRRR even has some 54-55…that would certainly be sufficient. It is a very small window these gusts occur but it would produce damage and power outages.

All we have to do is mix down like 60% to equate

That does provide a good visual as to the differences between the two events. But I also wonder if we're kind of comparing apples-to-oranges here. Ultimately, there are several ways we can get big wind events to verify around here. While this may not be similar to 12/18 that doesn't necessarily mean a similar impact can't happen. Not using this as a means to justify the wind potential, but sometimes a signal is missed when the focus turns to comparing to a previous event. But essentially, for tonight its virtually convection or bust and how robust that convection can be.

I'm not totally sure I completely agree with that assessment of the LLJ. It certainly isn't as expansive as Dec 17-18 but I don't think it is weaker but that is also relative based on where you're comparing too. In that event, mixing was aided with the expansive warmer temperatures which muted the inversion. Now I get we have the snow cover and that is going to fight back the warmth a bit, but there is still a good signal we get 50's into a good part of CT on east. At least to me, there is a much stronger signal for convection than Dec 17-18. While soundings aren't impressive in terms of mixing we have to look at the potential for convection to draw down these winds - so yes, convection or bust in terms of winds. I don't think bufkit handles situations very well where its torrential rain with wind potential. Take a look at tropical systems...if you look at bufkit profiles for tropical, you'll see bufkit subdue the wind big time when it has torrential rain falling. Sfc instability isn't great at all, but we do get some elevated instability with TT's also pushing into the upper 40's and LI's crashing down towards the lower single digits. We'll see.

Yup...it's coming. I'm shocked wind isn't being played up more. It gets hyped up when it it will be a non-event and then not hyped up when it will be a big event. It's essentially going to be like a 85 mile wide EF-0 ripping through the region

This map reminds me of that Simon game where you have to match the color patterns the computer does. What color do we stop it at New England tonight, orange or red?

snow just started to fall here

yeah looks like the strongest portion remains south of Long Island and then grazes the outer Cape.

Looks like the HRRR keeps the strongest portion of the forced line farther south. That will be a nowcasting event but I think it at least crosses somewhere in SNE. I'm expecting we'll see some severe thunderstorm warnings late overnight and a swath of wind gusts 60-70 mph. Outages are going to lite up like crazy.

I'm pretty impressed with the convection signal.

It will be interesting to see how well the cold holds in the valley. Any areas that are able to climb into the lower 50's tonight I think is in line for big winds. Some areas may even only experience 50 for an hour or two...right as the line is approaching. Sometimes a situation like this can enhance the wind potential because you're steepening the lapse rate so quickly you get like a mixing momentum boost (I know this isn't a good scientific explanation).

This is 6z but here is BDL. You don't have to go very far in the vertical for strong winds. A good line of forced convection would easily tap into these

Now obviously winds can be 1000 mph at 925/850 but if you're not mixing into these levels you're not bringing winds down. The hi-res models continue to be very aggressive with a very fine line of convection moving through and timed well with when the LLJ is strongest. I think the wind is going to be a very big deal overnight, but it will be brief. I think the wind is being downplayed big time. It boggles me b/c 9 times out of 10 the wind gets hyped like crazy and then when a scenario arises where it should be it doesn't. I am fairly confident we're going to see widespread power outages tonight from CT through RI and into SE MA.

Holy shit. that has to be some kind of feedback...