weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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Yeah kind of weird. Was just doing some quick stuff with RadarScope but seems like the stuff is only like 25-30K? Could explain it.
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EWR gusted to 49 knots
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Should hold firm into SW CT but I would think we may see gradual weakening as it moves northeast…but mesoanalysis shows good CAPE still.
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The movement will deviate some as it rides the instability/higher theta e axis
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Ive been having issues since yesterday but one of my friends says his is fine. But it’s acting very weird
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Is anyone else having issues with RadarScope?
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Just noticed the TDS in PA
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Funny how we do 3-6” of rain no problem but can’t buy it with snow
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This is moving much faster than the HRRR suggests
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At BDL, drove through that intensifying line. Got to see two bolts!
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BDL has better viewing though, more open. Great for taking video/pics (though it will be dark so can't do much with pics). Can get video though of planes being air born from the wind
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Debating on going to BDL or farther south like North Branford. There is a pretty good viewing spot that is open next to the North Branford police station.
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Just judging by SPC mesoanalysis and following the trajectory of where the >7 C/KM lapse rates are...though the RAP (which mesoanalysis runs off of) keeps >7 C/KM off the coast. Anyways, looks like we maintain llvl lape rates > 7.5-8 C/KM and 3km lapse rates > 7 C/KM through the early evening. These two suggests damaging wind potential for sure.
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HRRR trends are certainly grabbing my attention. Also, note the severe thunderstorm watch in effect for the northern edge of the "risk" area. That is a good sign and it looks like the EML is also a bit north
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I really feel bad for WPC/NCEP. Having hardcore issues these past several months.
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Will have to watch how convection evolves through the day across IN/OH/PA. This could give a good clue as to how far north instability surges.
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I can see an enhanced risk coming later on which the details become clearer.
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The HRRR does have some impressive instability as far north as the Pike.
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I wouldn't totally toss the NAM. If the NAM is correct with how far north the strongest instability gets. More so what we want to watch for through the day via mesoanalysis is where the instability gradient resides.
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Agreed, I'm thinking southern Pennsylvania into NJ for best severe potential. Not much north of there.
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Looks like the core of the EML passes just to our south, though may scoot across southern coastal CT and points east
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Gotta say...I'm not a huge fan of this product, but for this to be showing such progs, especially in this region is certainly concerning.
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I have m yearly physical next month!
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seems to be some hints of that
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The NAM may be overdone a bit but that's some serious 6-hr rainfall totals being spit out over a widespread area. How intense the convection ends up being across S PA and NJ will probably play a significant influence but the signal for flooding is kind of impressive. South coast is also best bet for any strong storms.
