weatherwiz

Just erupted into blue sky in Springfield with severe to my west. GOING TO BE POUNDED!!!!!!

decent rotation over Blanford

rotation over Otis

this may be the culprit

rapid sky brightening here. it's like one of those dim lights where you slowly turn the knob to adjust the brightness and in this case its brightness up

Nice instability/thermal axis for any storms to ride up along.

The HRRR is intriguing. It has been pretty consistent. Satellite trends and mesoanalysis show WF progression. I'm still a little concerned about the degree of dry air, but we're not looking at widespread storms here. Looking at the potential for a few, mainly a tiny cluster and if updrafts can become mature enough there's plenty to tap into.

Normally I would just toss NAM temperatures but this is probably a scenario the NAM will coop well. We aren't going to probably mix well and be stuck with a onshore flow. Despite it being quite chilly aloft, if we were able to mix and get some Sun it would still be several-plus degrees warmer (probably to about what the GFS has).

Quite the difference in guidance with precip for tomorrow and especially tomorrow night. The 3km has a decent precip shield moving through overnight while its counterpart is like what precip lol.

That is definitely something I noticed as well. Happened on 5/31/98. Had multiple rounds of strong morning convection which I think cleared out by 9 or 10 AM and an hour or two later it was wall-to-wall Sun and temps pushing 90. Likely a product of an advecting EML in these setups. The stout inversion helps to eliminate the RH field, we get rapid clearing, and the inversion with the EML prevents CU from forming until we're able to bring in the forcing. Pretty awesome how it all works really.

ahh yes I have come across some info that the lake boundaries can act as an enhancer. I think there is a similar connection across western NY. I recall reading some studies which analyzed several tornadoes which eerily had nearly identical tracks. Also one big difference between MI and our area today is I believe they got into the warm sector whereas we won't. Also a bit early in the season here so the SE sfc flow (while aiding in the SRH) provides us with muck off the water. If we had this same setup in even another 3 weeks it probably would have been interesting.

That's super sad. That area of Michigan is rather wild. I don't know much about there climo but what is it that makes southwestern Michigan kind of a hot spot for these larger tornadoes? Is it just because of where they're positioned they tend to end up in a favorable overlap of high cape/shear with great forcing or is there some local terrain induced influences at play?

Some friends of mine from school were renting out a house in Newtown and a tree limb punctured a hole in the roof and they weren't able to stay there until it was repaired. Luckily there landlord had a friend who did that sort of work. His friend told him there were weeks long backlog of orders to remove trees from yards. In fact, he said it was so bad businesses we're turning people away lol. Lots of people in that industry got rich from that event. People were being quoted $15,000+ just to remove a single tree lol

That's when you put up signs, "free wood if you have a chainsaw"

wow I just realized the 3km (6z run) was wayyyy off with the timing of this morning stuff. But I guess it at least caught on to it. IIRC correctly it wasn't as enthused with this AM stuff.

It's been wild for sure, not just the amount of rain but with some of the rainfall rates observed.

Bird taking shelter.

It's pretty wild how dark the sky is. Looks like something you would see in a severe thunderstorm.

Crazy stuff around Kalamazoo, MI last night. Heartbreaking

It's an overall decent setup but I didn't like how much dry air arrives in the wake of this morning stuff. Though it does look like there is some moistening later this afternoon. Also looked like a bit of a cap around 600-400mb. There is two round potential today...this morning stuff and then potential for a few strong storms to develop later this afternoon.

nahhh I don't think we are going to see much of anything. Maybe a few cells but it is super dry aloft and looks like a strong mlvl cap and perhaps some subsidence behind AM activity. Anything that does pop is going to really struggle IMO

I thought maybe the SPC did go a bit much with this. The high Risk, the PDS Watch, some of the wording was pretty intense as well. It seems like there has become more of a focus on parameters than the overall picture. I think even within the SPC discussion, there was some questioning about storm mode and a few other flags but went on the aggressive side given how models were indicating Significant Tornado Parameter Values of 10+...which is absolutely insane but we have to remember those do not mean anything if you don't have the right storms to utilize them. It seems like there has been a large movement within the forecasting industry to focus on parameters, AI products, analogs and reverting away from using what is most valuable, understanding the setup on hand and incorporating historical knowledge.

Communicating these types of events I'm sure is not easy, especially because you're dealing with a weather phenomena which is only impacting a small fraction of people compared to the overall geographic size where the potential exists. But the way I see it is, if you continue to use extreme wording time and time again, eventually those words lose value. A professor I had in school (who was in broadcasting) always use to say, when you're communicating weather (or anything in life really), choose your words carefully because how you define your words is how the audience is going to perceive and understand them. For example, if you keep saying "this weather is beautiful" obviously everyone is going to have their own definition of it, but what does it really mean. If you're using it for when it's 45F and sunny, 58F and sunny, 73F and sunny...do you really want to use beautiful for when it is 45F and sunny? Wouldn't you want to save that for when it truly is? Otherwise, the meaning of the word becomes diminished. Back to the severe weather...if wording such as "potential for strong/violent tornadoes" gets used over and over, eventually people may just let their guard down because how many times can you hear the same thing and not see anything happen (and by not see anything happen I don't mean a person's backyard, I mean for the picture as a whole). Like with our area, we get so many low potential setups (low cape/high shear) that maybe out of every 20, 1 or 2 produce tornadoes. But if you keep saying, "there is a chance for a tornado" every time...and nothing happens...well that one day when it actually may/does people may have their guard down. Maybe this would be on the people for letting their guard down but a large part is how things are communicated. Social media I think has made this much worse though because now you just have everyone posting STP maps, UH maps, etc.

I don't think we see much develop tomorrow. It is very dry above 900mb.

IDK if it's just me but it seems like there has been a significant upward trend in I don't want to say hyping events, but using extreme wording. Now I get that many of these setups have had ingredients worthy of such potential but as you know there is much more to it than that. The overall environment yesterday was quite concerning but it looked as if the storm mode was going to be very messy. I wonder if alot of this is being driven by these AI driven products. There is that Nadocast thing that is always going around I think something else too.