weatherwiz

If they're close enough, yes

yes

Agreed, I don't think anyone was calling for an epic December. There was discussion that we could have a few periods of potential. I mean if people are equating a discussion to a forecast that's on them.

The NAM does have enough llvl instability to make the wind potential a bit intriguing. It's probably a very small window though and I'm not sure if the potential is something that's on a widespread level or very localized and tied into any embedded areas of convection - this is probably most likely.

Gotcha…just looked at Jan 87 and I see what you mean. EPS there indeed looks a bit like it. Looks like Jan did have some decent blocking but I initially overlooked because it wasn’t reflected in the seasonal mean

That's a good thing? I think I had that as a wild card analog and as an analog which would not be good to us. That winter didn't have any blocking IIRC correctly

I get excited for thunder, lightning, shelf clouds, and towering cumulus. Anything else is a bonus

Pretty soon we'll all be dodging Hadley Cell induced fires that engulf the mainland and send everyone to shore

Brush fire in New Haven closing down a portion of 91. This wouldn't have happened if we had snow on the ground.

Not likely we mix to the top of the mixed layer there. Adjusting the momentum transfer from 10 to 1 yields this. There is also a bit of an inversion there...even the weakest of inversions hold back mixing down of winds substantially. We'll need some convection to maximize gust potential.

Folks will get stronger gusts from their bedroom fans Sunday night

The GFS has some severe weather for me on the 27th in Florida

This is highly dependent on the track, but it is not out of the question that a low topped squall line moves across southeastern areas (southeast CT, RI, and SE MA). If this scenario were to occur, it would likely coincide with a very narrow ribbon of weak instability. There may be enough to have some lightning strikes embedded, but this would offer the best potential for damaging wind gusts. Outside of this potential the winds will be pretty lame overall. Probably "better" than last week due to a stronger gradient but we'd be looking at mainly sustained winds (15-25 mph) with not much in the way of gusts (outside of the coast).

Soundings are certainly a bit interesting with the wind potential. The one thing I would really like to see more of though is at least some weak instability. I just don't see much mixing potential though to really utilize the wind potential. There is much more of a stronger pressure gradient though so this will certainly make it on the windier side (nothing crazy) but lapse rates are pretty poor so ultimately, I don't think we're mixing much wind down outside of southeast areas.

Woah that is awesome

Yikes just saw the GFS for next Saturday lol. Flying to Florida that day so I'm banking that will happen

EL Nino's typically peak in the late Fall/early winter then begin to weak (exception being super strong events which tend to maintain there strength through winter). But this should not really have an impact on anyone's thoughts for how the rest of winter will proceed.

It's always an exciting time when firing up the May 1st thread. Sometimes it even helps get winter going. But pretty crazy, in a few weeks we'll only be 4 months away

Was coming into Springfield from Windsor Locks and ran into a nice little snow something

ehhh I wouldn't put it past some to do so.

Don't hate the pattern at the end of the GFS run. Great to see that type of look. Hopefully the people that punted January punt themselves

Didn't many places in the West last winter (like ski areas) have some of their snowiest winters on record? I would have to think many of those areas are close to historical lows STD. Be curious to see if things change for them at all...but if the pattern evolves in a way that makes it more favorable for us that would not be good news for them.

True but depends on evolution and processes involved. In the event occlusion were to occur and it happened within the Southeast...that probably would drastically negate widespread heavy rain potential because the degree of WAA (which seems to be a huge driver in the potential) would be significantly weakened as would the degree of large scale lift. We saw something similar occur not very long ago. Don't remember if it was later in the summer or earlier in the Fall.

I was wondering if there was any chance this could end up becoming an occluded dud and we get nothing much outside of some showers or whatever. I think there there is too much northern stream interaction going on to prevent such a scenario.

Really not sure what to think of it. I mean when you look at how 500mb evolves, the scenario is a plausible one, doesn't mean it's likely but at this stage you can't really discount anything. The PWAT anomalies are absolutely insane. 5+ SD across a large area